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Stock Market
- Thread starter pmclaine
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Inflation heading to double digits??
How is the fed going to get things under control??
If they raise rates it destroys housing and markets and if they don’t it makes things worse down the road?
I think the solution rests on the policy side and potato head has no interest in dealing with it.
How is the fed going to get things under control??
If they raise rates it destroys housing and markets and if they don’t it makes things worse down the road?
I think the solution rests on the policy side and potato head has no interest in dealing with it.
A very timely question.... IMHO, I don't think so.... That "10%" number flashing in the neon lights of Wall Street would set off a stampede for the door..... Don't get me wrong, it could hover at 9.9% with trillions of USD's propping things up.....
Heading to Costco / Walmart for supplies this morning. Will give a "man on the street" report later.
Yep, we are just kicking numbers around. The future is unknown. but, when the average American thinks of inflation and does some quick multiplication in his head and considers his local taxes... The picture is bleak. Just a few considerations:
What is Louisiana's 2022 sales tax rate? It's 9.55 percent, highest in the country.
April’s consumer price index showed an 8.3% jump.
oil (wti)
+3.97%103.35
They do. I told them fireworks, tequila, and handguns, along with blown big blocks. God hates a coward.
What government policy fixes inflation at this point? You think we're ever going to get something close to a balanced budget? Trump made $1 trillion/year deficits the norm; Biden just doubled-down but it's kinda irrelevant at this point except as a partisan talking point. Either the Fed brings the money supply under control or else this fire will continue to burn.
Will it destroy the housing and equity markets? Only if you think that the current values are justified by fundamentals. If one believes that the current valuations reflect a bubble, then the sooner that bubble is popped, the better.
Well, shit, that makes things way better - I thought that 8.3% was totally unbearable, but at only 8.1% I'm back in the perma-bull game.
I'm not anti gov.....gov has an important job to do.....but that job revolves around maintaining safety/security so that people can go about their lives
Government as we see it has for the last 70 plus years done little but manufacture crisis.....then try to further manipulate shit to "solve" the crisis that it created......which results in a larger steamy pile of shit that we the people need to contend with
A legislature in session and a runaway executive branch is far and above the most dangerous threat to the safety, prosperity, liberty and freedom of the american people.
The american revolution started over an arbitrary unaccountable all powerful central executive branch (king) and house of parliment run amuk
Government as we see it has for the last 70 plus years done little but manufacture crisis.....then try to further manipulate shit to "solve" the crisis that it created......which results in a larger steamy pile of shit that we the people need to contend with
A legislature in session and a runaway executive branch is far and above the most dangerous threat to the safety, prosperity, liberty and freedom of the american people.
The american revolution started over an arbitrary unaccountable all powerful central executive branch (king) and house of parliment run amuk
When I was day trading, I went and played on that ball field... About the time a small player get's his ducks in a row to "Short" a stock....... a notice appears that says "No Shares Available To Short".... That notice shows up about 10 minutes before close. The big players have gathered up those shares. With this down turn I'd imagine any shares available to short will come at a premium....
I read this yesterday and took some time to think about what you said. Using the chart below, I have survived 5 - 6 recessions in my working years. IMHO, a recession is always worse than Americans are lead to believe. I'll use your word scary here. Scary was when I sat with my wife after she put my children to bed and I told her "I can't buy myself a job" right now. She had always paid the bills. We had a "Bill Folder" and on pay day that check paid those bills. Up until that point all the bills in the folder could be brought current with that paycheck.. As if over night, there were bills that could not be paid. Wife was really stressed so I took over paying bills. I would pay what I could, close the folder and put it back in the drawer. She asked "How can you do that?"... I replied "It's just business"....
Today was "pay day" for an old guy on a fixed income. I went for supplies. Spent $300 at Costco and another $100 at Winco. Again, it was just business. No different now than in 1970. "Supplies" do not include luxury items.
Get ready, this recession will be worse than you can imagine.
I’ll respond later in whole but why will this recession be worse than I can imagine?I read this yesterday and took some time to think about what you said. Using the chart below, I have survived 5 - 6 recessions in my working years. IMHO, a recession is always worse than Americans are lead to believe. I'll use your word scary here. Scary was when I sat with my wife after she put my children to bed and I told her "I can't buy myself a job" right now. She had always paid the bills. We had a "Bill Folder" and on pay day that check paid those bills. Up until that point all the bills in the folder could be brought current with that paycheck.. As if over night, there were bills that could not be paid. Wife was really stressed so I took over paying bills. I would pay what I could, close the folder and put it back in the drawer. She asked "How can you do that?"... I replied "It's just business"....
Today was "pay day" for an old guy on a fixed income. I went for supplies. Spent $300 at Costco and another $100 at Winco. Again, it was just business. No different now than in 1970. "Supplies" do not include luxury items.
Get ready, this recession will be worse than you can imagine.
Thank you, that is a fair question. Thoughts, not in order of priority:
- Misleading information from trusted sources. Subtle, but still propaganda.
- Disappearance of "Leaders"... Men or women at 55 years of age with a lifetime of leadership skills. They are not rich but can retire comfortably. They have been bombarded with bull shit and are worn out, physically and mentally.
- The Workforce - Shrinking of people who take pride in their job. One of my Dad's sayings. "Son, what ever you choose to do, be good at it". You can be a garbage man as long as you are a "Good Garbage Man". In my trades, I did that.
- No pride in workmanship. Another Dad saying... "Son, if it worth doing, it's worth doing right"... Many times in my trades I stepped back from a project because management would not allow me to "do it right, the first time". You can't cut a corner on a 100%, X-Ray pipe weld.
- Supervision who does not have a clue as to whether a worker is doing his job right or wrong.
- Two generations of Americans (20 - 40 years old) who have been bailed out every time they failed by parents, government or the education system. More people need to fall flat on their face and learn some lessons.
- Medical field is in shambles.. An aging society that depends on excellent medical care... Failure. Hospitals run by lawyers.
- Crumbling infrastructure - Urban sprawl with no new highways. Electric grid at capacity.. Drought in the West. running out of water.
- Failure of the educational system. Social promotion...Parents given no say. This could be a long explanation.
- Deficit of the United States of America. Being a Service economy will not lift us out of this hole.
- Individual States have given up their "Rights" to the Federal Government. What's right for the people of Montana may not be right for the people of Florida.
- 150 million American's are living in denial that anything bad will happen to them.
- This recession is worldwide, unlike other's in America.
- All those public companies listed on the different Markets can cut payroll overnight, without giving a reason.
TheLayoff.com - Layoffs Discussion Board
Layoffs Discussion, News and Rumors. Ask, answer, speculate on layoffs in your company...
www.thelayoff.com
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While I can agree with the majority of that, it is not something that I will let hold me back. I have to make decisions that I feel are best for myself and ultimately my family once I have one. Everyone's situation is vastly different and I often speak of a world that is mine on here.
Let me start off by saying that...
- I am younger; early 30s
- make 284% more than the median individual income where I live or 164% of the median household income.
- increased my salary by 76% in the last four years
- am on the table for a promotion that should put me 10%-15% higher than where I currently am
- invest/save roughly 75% of my take-home pay (including employer 401K match of 6%)
- have a current net cash position (cash on hand is greater than all of my debt)
- my employer can handle a recession and I feel as if my role is very secure
this positions me well to take chances and strike on opportunities that I believe will pay off extremely well.
Recessions are a part of the normal cycle. I saw my dad get laid-off three different times growing up, including being unemployed for 8+ months around '08. He is planning on retiring end of this year; I hope that happens. However, it is important that while we have had 11 recessions on the graph you provided; the S&P returned almost 28,000% (1945-today) or 11% annualized with dividends reinvested in that same period. The inflation we are having today will propel the earnings of tomorrow. I believe there is more pain to come, esp. if PPI is garbage tomorrow or Powell surprises with a mid-meeting rate increase (airlines and transport up suggest it could happen).
I would like to hear others thoughts this. I am in a similar situation. Early 30s, married, 2 kids, very good income with a stable company. I have been blessed enough to have very little debt, except for the mortgage. My wife and I both max out our 401k, IRAs (don't qualify for roths), and my wife's HSA. I have a strong emergency fund and 80% equity in my house. All of this sounds good on paper, but I find myself very concerned in this environment. I have a garden, fruit tress, and getting chickens this weekend. At what point would you guys feel comfortable going into this?
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I agree that there is a surge of early retirements taking people in their late 50s early 60s out of job markets - that is a lot of experience leaving all at once and several years early. Many industries are suffering as they were not prepared for that much experience leaving in mass.
I will address to both Gwak2006 and S3th .... You can both LOL at me and it will not offend me...
- It may not be evident to either of you (it was not evident to me when I was in my early 30's)... Your #1 asset is your age. There are developments that could leave you penniless in a matter of a couple of years. A few are divorce, spousal and child support, parent(s) who could suffer a debilitating illness or injury, a child becoming disabled.... Even worse would you becoming disabled.
- If you lost it all you will have the time to recover. Your biggest learning lesson would how you lost it and knowledge to not allow that to happen again.
- I 100% agree about the "cycle" of recessions. The wisest investors have a sixth sense about when to jump back in on real estate, starting a business, get a Masters or Dr's degree, etc.
- I can't emphasize enough about the "Black Swan". They also run in a cycle and I hate that term force majeure. Do your best to cushion your family and finances for the time a force majeure happens... It will happen.
- Another big laughing opportunity... There are some people around who blend into the background, the Grey Man... I say they are "Old Souls" and other's label them as mentors. These people will never come knock on your door and offer you wisdom. Your challenge is to find them. They appear when you least expect it. Perhaps while standing in line at the grocery store and they comment on something you have in your shopping cart. They come in all shapes, sizes, colors and ages. If you spend time with them they will do something or say something and you will ask "How did you know how to do that?".. They will shrug their shoulders and reply "I just do". That will become the best mentor you could ever wish for. Perhaps that person is around you now.... IDK
- This next one will be a psychological challenge... You have both worked hard and are proud of your accomplishments. You must appear humble. A humble person will find a wonderful mentor who will offer help. A boisterous man will find stumbling blocks in his path... The man you boast to today will snicker at you in two years after you loose everything. A humble man who falls down will always receive a helping hand to get up. Life will find a way to knock you down for the test.
- I'll lump these two final ones together. Belief in a higher power and happiness. They walk hand in hand. This is what men find from within. If you find happiness and show it, the path will be a bit easier to walk.
Thanks for the response. I agree with all of these especially the last one. When I was younger and broke, I didn't worry about my finances. Now that I'm more comfortable, I think about it a lot more. From time to time, I loose sight that this is all a gift from God. When I do, I start feeling anxious. Then eventually, God reminds me, I don't worry about it... Matthew 19:24
When I am completely self reliant a years worth of food on hand.
Needless to say I’ll never be comfortable.
This part is for some of you older folks. Do you remember what your parents or grandparents homes looked like? You know, the ones who lived through the Great Depression. I remember mine. They had 2 freezers full of meat, 2 floor to ceiling racks full of food and all the kitchen cabinets full of canned goods.
They lived through a time that they never wanted to revisit again.
Maybe there is a lesson in there somewhere for the younger ones here.
Ps: They also had a huge garden , bee hives and made sassafras tea from the trees across the road from them.
Here are two for you young guy's to add to your watch list.
ADM, CAG
Both will decline until there is a bottom. The "Dead Cat Bounce" will show you the bottom. Don't be mislead by the bounces on the way down. Patience for the fire sale.
I am 62. My parents were the Greatest Generation - born early 1920s lived through Depression and WW2 - dad was combat vet like many of his generation. They lived simply and within their means - worked hard and went to church. I think following generations - including mine - do not live within their means and that fuels some of the ups/downs of the markets. Seems like we need an occasional severe "correction" every generation or so to bring people back to earth.
LOL.... I played CHS long, long ago when I had a couple of teen age daughters....
Long term it will be all about food.
CHSCP....... I got it. That one has run flat for the past 5 years... Not seeing a bump up or down.
That is the combined state and local tax rate for Louisiana and is not indicative of the entire state. Tennessee is also in that realm for combined taxes.
https://www.thebalance.com/best-and-worst-states-for-sales-taxes-3193296
But taxes in Louisiana do suck! And with the nepotism occurring in some of the parishes it is going to get a LOT worse.
Comparing State Tax Codes: Sales Taxes
An ideal sales tax applies to a broad base of final consumer goods and services, with few exemptions, and is levied at a low rate. Broad-based, low-rate tax structures minimize tax-induced economic distortions that can occur when people change their purchasing behavior because of tax differences.
taxfoundation.org
I agree... Being from Baton Rouge and traveling (nation wide) for work I experienced some lesser known tax traps... Like being double taxed on income. Bought a new truck while in Iowa and that was the highest tax rate I ever paid on a vehicle... They get you coming and going if you make a good wage and don't understand the "Rules of the Game"...That is the combined state and local tax rate for Louisiana and is not indicative of the entire state. Tennessee is also in that realm for combined taxes.
https://www.thebalance.com/best-and-worst-states-for-sales-taxes-3193296
But taxes in Louisiana do suck! And with the nepotism occurring in some of the parishes it is going to get a LOT worse.
Comparing State Tax Codes: Sales Taxes
An ideal sales tax applies to a broad base of final consumer goods and services, with few exemptions, and is levied at a low rate. Broad-based, low-rate tax structures minimize tax-induced economic distortions that can occur when people change their purchasing behavior because of tax differences.
I'm still figuring out the Louisiana tax game having retired down here from the military not too long ago. I'm up in the Fort Polk, Leesville area.
Exactly.CHSCP....... I got it. That one has run flat for the past 5 years... Not seeing a bump up or down.
It’s a dividend based stock.
I’m getting raped in the market at the moment. 5 years of gains and all cash put in during that time completely gone!
It's still going, one of my coworkers likes to fish there regularly. I rarely make it out that way since I have all my animals and other hobbies.
I'm with you... tying up $32 to make $2 annual. That's a lot of risk hanging out there.
That fit's some folks risk tolerance.
Good that you have animals and hobbies. Sounds like you have found happiness.
CHSCP....... I got it. That one has run flat for the past 5 years... Not seeing a bump up or down.
That chart shows the amount of risk in it.
It’s ran to remain staple with a goal of 8% total return.
Not gone if you do not sell. The market has always recovered - if it does not recover this time then we have much bigger issues
I still have a lot to work on. 1 in college and another will be going to college soon. Plus I like shooting and ammo is expensive so I am still working.
No rest for the wicked.
CHS has a presence here in the Bitterroot Valley. They run a good operation. Doing some reading and it sounds like they take care of their people worldwide. (Link Below).... Will be interesting to watch how they deal with inflation and shortages.
Supporting employees in Ukraine
CHS Ukraine employees and their families who evacuated to Romania were visited by CHS President and Chief Executive Officer Jay Debertin and John Griffith, who heads up CHS ag businesses and CHS Hedging.
www.chsinc.com
If you only knew all of that story…..CHS has a presence here in the Bitterroot Valley. They run a good operation. Doing some reading and it sounds like they take care of their people worldwide. (Link Below).... Will be interesting to watch how they deal with inflation and shortages.
Supporting employees in Ukraine
CHS Ukraine employees and their families who evacuated to Romania were visited by CHS President and Chief Executive Officer Jay Debertin and John Griffith, who heads up CHS ag businesses and CHS Hedging.
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The problem with the recession that is in the works is that its not a natural/organic reset/invisible hand event......its an overt manifestation of central economic planning and manipulation.
We have shortage in products because government/bureaucracy is manipulating currency/value
They are disrupting markets by sending good/energy overseas to other markets
Starting proxy wars and then funding them with our tax dollars.
The least common denominator for everything from food to heat to transportation is energy......and these fuckers have prevented the creation of any new petroleum refineries for 30 plus years......while they've managed to drive up the cost of WTI......its really the cost of refining thats driven diesel over $6
Without petroleum products you have no fertilizer
No fertilizer, no crops
No crops not food
Dont even get me started on transportation of food and the fact that on a GOOD day a supermarket has a 24 hr supply of food
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