Stock Market

[Bigfatcock]

There is no time for me. Buy S&P500 with every paycheck. For life.

I’ve bought so many “Tops” in the market that it’s ridiculous, lol.

Shriners children hospital is going to be ecstatic when I finally kick the bucket.

 

[S3th]

There is no time for me. Buy S&P500 with every paycheck. For life.

I’ve bought so many “Tops” in the market that it’s ridiculous, lol.

It works. Following a Moving Average in non taxable accounts has very limited downside risk with significant upside benefit.

 

[Bigfatcock]

It works. Following a Moving Average in non taxable accounts has very limited downside risk with significant upside benefit.

I concur.

I’m just saying that I don’t try to time the S&P. I’ve bought every top and every black swan since the early 1990’s.

I always think about when Apple almost went bankrupt. That was nerve wracking, lol.

Anyone who has kids old enough to work should have a brokerage account that allows buying fractional shares, and should be buying the S&P500, FAAG (no N because I don’t see Netflix sticking around as long as the others), Tesla, and maybe some defense stocks every paycheck.

Reinvest dividends and enjoy swoll pockets.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Yep. Lots of things I can pay for, but few I’m willing to pay for.

Certain things I bought/buy at any price just to have it available.

Others I wait for. Real estate and watches are two of them.

If you remember about a year or so ago I told people to buy their houses at any price vs waiting on a deal. Yes, prices are marginally lower, but the interest rates are double. Now they can’t afford anywhere near as much house.

Cash is just sitting in high interest money markets waiting for the time to pounce. Still waiting on my like new F-250 Super Duty for penny’s on the dollar, lol.

I had some friend's (actually some of the Little League coaches in our League) that were mortgage brokers, developers and one that worked for the RTC. They pooled "resources" like money, information and opportunities and stockpiled properties in SoCal where we resided. Today those guy's have no money worries.
History will repeat. Keep your powder dry.
The banks really don't want to be homeowners.
______________________

What Is the Resolution Trust Corporation? ​

The Resolution Trust Corporation (RTC) is a now-defunct temporary federal agency. From 1989 to 1995, it largely resolved the savings and loan (S&L) crisis of the 1980s, which resulted in about a third of such U.S. institutions failing within a 10-year span. The RTC became a massive property-management company, cleaning up what was, at the time, the largest collapse of U.S. financial institutions since the Great Depression.
The RTC closed failed financial institutions placed in conservatorship by selling or merging troubled thrifts and folding their assets back into the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC). The RTC accomplished its work in roughly six years, slowly at first, but then by selling pools of assets at heavy discounts to private investors, which allowed the RTC to participate in any future market gains from those pools.
The RTC shuttered a total of 747 failed financial institutions, with total assets of $394 billion. It also liquidated the assets of these institutions.
______________

Resolution Trust Corporation (RTC): What It Was and How It Worked

The Resolution Trust Corporation was a temporary federal agency created to resolve the savings and loan crisis of the 1980s.

www.investopedia.com

 

[Nik H]

Yep. Lots of things I can pay for, but few I’m willing to pay for.

Certain things I bought/buy at any price just to have it available.

Others I wait for. Real estate and watches are two of them.

If you remember about a year or so ago I told people to buy their houses at any price vs waiting on a deal. Yes, prices are marginally lower, but the interest rates are double. Now they can’t afford anywhere near as much house.

Cash is just sitting in high interest money markets waiting for the time to pounce. Still waiting on my like new F-250 Super Duty for penny’s on the dollar, lol.

I gave my oldest son and his new wife the same advice a year ago and thankfully they took it and bought a nice house. Today it is still worth what they paid but if they had to do it now, they would be more stressed for certain.

 

[Nik H]

I concur.

I’m just saying that I don’t try to time the S&P. I’ve bought every top and every black swan since the early 1990’s.

I always think about when Apple almost went bankrupt. That was nerve wracking, lol.

Anyone who has kids old enough to work should have a brokerage account that allows buying fractional shares, and should be buying the S&P500, FAAG (no N because I don’t see Netflix sticking around as long as the others), Tesla, and maybe some defense stocks every paycheck.

Reinvest dividends and enjoy swoll pockets.

Isn't it now MAAA - Meta, Amazon, Apple and Alphabet

 

[Bigfatcock]

Isn't it now MAAA - Meta, Amazon, Apple and Alphabet

True, but FAAG is funnier.

 

[S3th]

My Nvidia 9/15 puts are printing today.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

My Nvidia 9/15 puts are printing today.

Visionary

 

[Hobo Hilton]

The Chinese will eat General Motor's lunch at this rate on an EV.
Selling price needs to come down, not up.
An old Southern saying.... "I only need 4 wheels and a steering wheel... "... "4 rollin' wheels beats two walkin' heels"....
Manufacturer's have the resources to build a $10k EV that will get a person around a small town to the grocery store, drug store and the park.
Why won't they do it?

Here's a first look at GM's new all-electric Cadillac Escalade IQ, starting at $130,000

The 2025 Cadillac Escalade IQ is a new all-electric SUV with more power than the current supercharged V-8 model and an estimated range of 450 miles.

www.cnbc.com

 

[S3th]

 

[S3th]

 

[Hobo Hilton]

View attachment 8200908

Inflation at it's finest......... Credit Jerome Powell and the FED Reserve. Looking like 4 more years of the same.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

S3th​

Tesla Model X arose from the grave.

A totaled Tesla was sold for parts in the U.S. but came back online in Ukraine — here’s what happened

The car or its computer was suddenly online in a southern region of war-torn Ukraine.

www.cnbc.com

 

[S3th]

I concur.

DMA strategy vs. buy & hold - much larger divergency when MMFs actually pay interest

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Bala told FOX Business he believes the government needs to do more to "provide consumers with the right information."

Man forced to ditch Ford EV truck during family road trip to Chicago: ‘biggest scam of modern times’

A Canadian man is sharing his frustrating experience – and the expenses incurred – after he purchased a Ford F-150 Lightning electric pickup truck earlier this year.

www.foxbusiness.com

 

[david walter]

Any of you guys use Zack’s? And follow the prescribed #1 strong buy methodology?

Second question: SMCI. Where is it going? Back up or?

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Any of you guys use Zack’s? And follow the prescribed #1 strong buy methodology?

Second question: SMCI. Where is it going? Back up or?

SMCI lost 30% in a few days. I would have had a tight stop out in place. Would not waste my time looking at similar stocks.
Zacks is in the same league as Cramer.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

I don't see your point. Who wants a vehicle with hundreds of thousands of miles? A 750K battery pack seems more than sufficient.

Tesla cuts prices again in China for Model Y, Model 3

Tesla shares fell after the company announced a fresh round of price cuts for the Model Y in mainland China.

www.cnbc.com

 

[S3th]

Tesla cuts prices again in China for Model Y, Model 3

Tesla shares fell after the company announced a fresh round of price cuts for the Model Y in mainland China.

www.cnbc.com

M3 refresh may come in below $35k. After rebates it’s less than $27.5k nationwide.

 

[CEO10KaDAY]

Any of you guys use Zack’s? And follow the prescribed #1 strong buy methodology?

Second question: SMCI. Where is it going? Back up or?

I'm a strategist at an RIA with about $15B AUM and I can't move client assets out of Zack's into other sma's fast enough. Whether you like their core diversified strategies, or specific asset class mandate strategies, there's better options IMO.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

I'm a strategist at an RIA with about $15B AUM and I can't move client assets out of Zack's into other sma's fast enough. Whether you like their core diversified strategies, or specific asset class mandate strategies, there's better options IMO.

Most of the time it takes a bit of research....... But, there is always a better option.
That herd mentality will make you go broke or kill you.
The more time goes on and the worse things get, the better it is to be the "Lone Wolf".

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Although Australia is the world’s largest lithium producer, it ships almost all of it to China as low-grade ore where it is refined into a battery-grade chemical.

China’s New Lithium Futures Market Outpacing London Metal Exchange | OilPrice.com

Guangzhou Futures Exchange's new lithium carbonate business has already gained more market activity than competitors such as the London Metal Exchange and Singapore Exchange

oilprice.com

 

[S3th]

Although Australia is the world’s largest lithium producer, it ships almost all of it to China as low-grade ore where it is refined into a battery-grade chemical.

China’s New Lithium Futures Market Outpacing London Metal Exchange | OilPrice.com

Guangzhou Futures Exchange's new lithium carbonate business has already gained more market activity than competitors such as the London Metal Exchange and Singapore Exchange

oilprice.com

One of the benefits of the IRA is supporting diversification outside of China.

 

[S3th]

Berkshire Hathaway has sold 45% (worth ~$700M) of their General Motors stock, according to a new 13F filing.

 

[Graywolf.260]

Senator Thomas Tuberville just dislosed $250k in futures trading in wheat, corn, soy and cattle.

He sits on the Senate Committee for Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry.

He literally influences agricultural futures via legislation and is trading it actively.

https://x.com/unusual_whales/status/1691192484683223046?s=46&t=cdu43EcAAb_5yUTfWAsqOg

 

[S3th]

Senator Thomas Tuberville just dislosed $250k in futures trading in wheat, corn, soy and cattle.

He sits on the Senate Committee for Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry.

He literally influences agricultural futures via legislation and is trading it actively.

https://x.com/unusual_whales/status/1691192484683223046?s=46&t=cdu43EcAAb_5yUTfWAsqOg

Hopefully, he is shorting it...

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Berkshire Hathaway has sold 45% (worth ~$700M) of their General Motors stock, according to a new 13F filing.

Yep, but invested in "home builders"....
Their Netjets are in and out of this valley several times a day. A way to move people covertly.... Which is another topic for another time.
Probably more building in Montana.

NetJets | World's Leading Private Jet Company | Fractional Aircraft Companies

NetJets is the world’s largest private jet company, offering fractional aircraft ownership, private jet leases, and private jet card programs. Experience the ultimate in private jet travel, from departure to return.

www.netjets.com

 

[S3th]

Both QQQ and VOO have dropped below their 50 DMA today. Very bearish.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Both QQQ and VOO have dropped below their 50 DMA today. Very bearish.

The farther you can move your investments away from the USD, the better off you will be.

 

[Lightning8]

Do j

Both QQQ and VOO have dropped below their 50 DMA today. Very bearish.

Do not see how the market can be doing well with all the issues in US. As soon as Americans max out their credit cards the economy and the market tanks

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Fitch warns it may be forced to downgrade dozens of banks, including JPMorgan Chase

Fitch Ratings warned that U.S. banks have inched closer to sweeping rating downgrades on dozens of lenders, including JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Do j

Do not see how the market can be doing well with all the issues in US. As soon as Americans max out their credit cards the economy and the market tanks

Just look around at all the propaganda / diversions being heaped on "We the People".
They don't want us to watch the fall of the USD.

 

[S3th]

The farther you can move your investments away from the USD, the better off you will be.
View attachment 8205284

Disagree.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Disagree.

Land, resources like water, food, shelter.....
All bought and paid for.
List any stock that will out perform inflation for the next 3 years...
They will all go just like HD. Propping up share price until they can't do it any more.

Home Depot launched a $15 billion stock buyback program after beating second-quarter expectations. However, the home-improvement retailer warned that shoppers are still cautious of spending on big-ticket items and it expects a sales decline this year.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

I am confident a portfolio mix of $TSLA, $ENPH, and $ALB will outperform the market 2x from today to 2027.

I also don't understand why you think share buybacks are a bad thing. It isn't propping up any share price.

Share buy backs are bad because they are not investing in America. No new stores, no new jobs, not expanding their base.
I have made very little $$$ off of buy backs.
I relate share buy backs prior to a recession as the order to "Batten down the Hatches".

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Markets down 1%+.... Interesting that today two of the "Market Movers" were:
D.R Horton
Lennar
Berkshire Hathaway bought up "Home Builders" yesterday.

So, what do they know that we don't know ? You buying houses Bigfatcock ?

 

[atepointer]

Share buy backs are bad because they are not investing in America. No new stores, no new jobs, not expanding their base.
I have made very little $$$ off of buy backs.
I relate share buy backs prior to a recession as the order to "Batten down the Hatches".

View attachment 8205556

Have you ever looked at HD's balance sheet or do you just look for the latest share buyback story to demonize it? They have smartly staggered debt coupled with huge cash flows to finance building out new stores and pay off expiring bonds as the go. Not to mention a nice dividend and buybacks along the way. I bought HD in 2012 and don't plan on selling it for probably another 5 years where it will be dumped into fixed income.

So if/when have a recession and the share price backs up? Meh. I doubt I add to it b/c I'm eating up all the fantastic yield in the fixed income market while I can in this rate cycle. Long term with rates higher people are selling/moving less or waiting for lower rates to refi, home builders will continue to prosper as input costs go down. I have a buddy who is a 3rd gen roofer locally and another who is a custom home builder in Atlanta. They both just finished the single best year they have ever had and are booked out as far as they can plan for reasonably.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Have you ever looked at HD's balance sheet or do you just look for the latest share buyback story to demonize it? They have smartly staggered debt coupled with huge cash flows to finance building out new stores and pay off expiring bonds as the go. Not to mention a nice dividend and buybacks along the way. I bought HD in 2012 and don't plan on selling it for probably another 5 years where it will be dumped into fixed income.

So if/when have a recession and the share price backs up? Meh. I doubt I add to it b/c I'm eating up all the fantastic yield in the fixed income market while I can in this rate cycle. Long term with rates higher people are selling/moving less or waiting for lower rates to refi, home builders will continue to prosper as input costs go down. I have a buddy who is a 3rd gen roofer locally and another who is a custom home builder in Atlanta. They both just finished the single best year they have ever had and are booked out as far as they can plan for reasonably.

Your timing to buy HD was excellent.

 

[atepointer]

Your timing to buy HD was excellent.

Lucky on the cap gains because i bought it for the div. At that time in Obimbles low growth economy 3% div was amazing.

 

[Lightning8]

Fed Officials See Economic Slowdown and ‘Significant’ Inflation Risks: Minutes

FOMC minutes say the United States is at the beginning of a slowdown as the economy faces upside inflation risks and tighter credit conditions.

www.theepochtimes.com

 

[S3th]

Sold 8/18/23 Tesla $230 Calls for $555 an hour into market open. Closed my positions for $226 after my lunch with GS. Not a bad day

 

[S3th]

Fed Officials See Economic Slowdown and ‘Significant’ Inflation Risks: Minutes

FOMC minutes say the United States is at the beginning of a slowdown as the economy faces upside inflation risks and tighter credit conditions.

www.theepochtimes.com

Post the article.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Fed Officials See Economic Slowdown and ‘Significant’ Inflation Risks: Minutes

FOMC minutes say the United States is at the beginning of a slowdown as the economy faces upside inflation risks and tighter credit conditions.

www.theepochtimes.com

The FED Reserve drug their ass for almost a year before they even thought of raising interest rates and tightening the money supply.
ANYONE and EVERYONE reporting inflation / wages / unemployment that is on the Government payroll or is a government contractor is "cooking the books" in order to make the numbers easier to swallow.
I label that as being "politicized"..... Same bull shit as a politician running for office and is after your vote. Telling "We the People" what they want to hear.
Once they are in... Screw you.
There will be a day of reckoning
For the Lord of armies will have a day of reckoning
Against everyone who is arrogant and haughty,
And against everyone who is lifted up,
That he may be brought low.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

The United States is at the beginning of a slowdown as the economy continues to face significant upside inflation risks and tighter credit conditions, according to new minutes from the July Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy meeting.

Although the economy has been expanding at a "moderate pace," the latest credit developments in the "sound and resilient" banking system were "likely to weigh on economic activity" for businesses and households.

Staff economists no longer see a "mild recession" later this year amid better-than-expected spending and real activity.

Post the article.

Fed officials see 'upside risks' to inflation possibly leading to more rate hikes, minutes show

That discussion during a two-day July meeting resulted in a quarter percentage point rate hike that markets generally expect to be the last one of this cycle.

www.nbcnews.com

 

[S3th]

Banks are forecasting a weakened US dollar in H1’24. I don't think they could be any more wrong. As China weakens its currency trying to stimulate an exhausted economy, America will benefit more so than not.

 

[NoDopes]

Can't have a recession if inflation is ripping along at 10%

 

[S3th]

Can't have a recession if inflation is ripping along at 10%

I am in the belief that inflation has been beaten. We will likely see a small tick up in Q3 then back on track. Rates higher for longer is going to surprise the market and that is when the marriage fails apart.

 

[Pharmseller]

I am confident a portfolio mix of $TSLA, $ENPH, and $ALB will outperform the market 2x from today to 2027.

I also don't understand why you think share buybacks are a bad thing. It isn't propping up any share price.

interesting

 

[Hobo Hilton]

I am in the belief that inflation has been beaten. We will likely see a small tick up in Q3 then back on track. Rates higher for longer is going to surprise the market and that is when the marriage fails apart.

Pay attention to the UK and how inflation is running there. I think their reporting is more truthful than what the US Government is posting.
It's a slow motion game of "Leap Frog".
Inflation goes up
Wages go up
Inflation goes up
Wages go up

Those people who are making more are simply spending it to cover the same bills that are now inflated.
It's a vicious cycle.
British are excited that "Interest Only" loans are now being offered to the home owners.
How long will it take to pay off an "interest only" loan ? Basically it is nothing more than a rent payment.

The "cycles" we are witnessing can not go on forever.

A game of Musical Chairs for Americans.