Stock Market

[Hobo Hilton]

I see what I call ‘Pocket recessions’ throughout the landscape.

It’s odd really. It’s like a creeping recession slowly invading from the bottom up. Right now I’d say the $60k and under class are really feeling it while those making more are ignorant of it at this time.

Those at the bottom are not feeling it...They are resting comfortably on the many "safety nets". Those that are feeling it the most are those who apply for some sort of subsistence and are told "You make too much money to qualify"..... I label that group as the "Working Poor".
Every month the percentage of the working poor increases. Few drop into the category of homeless. They are too proud to do anything but tighten their financial belts and keep putting one foot in front of the other. They pay taxes, insurance, drive old beaters and wear clothes from the thrift stores...
It will get worse.

 

[Redmanss]

Thanks for sharing those interesting articles about China's economic and technological developments. The global economy is continually evolving, and China's role in it is a crucial aspect to keep an eye on.

Fuck off chicom spammer.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Hoping for that soft landing.
Hope is not a plan.
__________
September 14, 20239:18 AM MDTUpdated 7 min ago

NEW YORK/BANGALORE, Sept 14 (Reuters) - Billionaire investor Ken Griffin, founder of U.S. hedge fund Citadel, said on Thursday that he has some doubts about the continuity of the markets rally and is concerned about the about the U.S. fiscal situation.
"I'm a bit anxious that this rally can continue," he said in an interview on CNBC. "I like to believe that this rally has legs. I'm a bit anxious. We're sort of in the seventh or eighth inning of this rally, but part of it has been the soft landing story."

Citadel's Griffin unsure stock market rally can continue - CNBC

Billionaire investor Ken Griffin, founder of U.S. hedge fund Citadel, said on Thursday that he has some doubts about the continuity of the markets rally and is concerned about the about the U.S. fiscal situation.

www.reuters.com

 

[DIBBS]

Concerned about the US fiscal situation.

NO SHIT SHERLOCK!

They would be running the printing presses 36 hours a day if they could.... spend more, oh we'll just print a few trillion more.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Concerned about the US fiscal situation.

NO SHIT SHERLOCK!

They would be running the printing presses 36 hours a day if they could.... spend more, oh we'll just print a few trillion more.

Biden thinks he can forgive student loans.... I'm sure he thinks he can forgive the national debt.
On that day, what will the value of a USD be ?

 

[E. Bryant]

Inflation would like to remind you that it hasn't gone away:

The Acceleration of Inflation in the Second Half Has Begun, “Disinflation” Honeymoon Terminated | Wolf Street

The "healthcare CPI" twist is an interesting one.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Inflation would like to remind you that it hasn't gone away:

The Acceleration of Inflation in the Second Half Has Begun, “Disinflation” Honeymoon Terminated | Wolf Street

The "healthcare CPI" twist is an interesting one.

It is all "smoke and mirror's"... Those of us "Old Guy's" here can take our receipts from January through August 2022 and run the numbers on our receipts from January through August 2023 and come up with an inflation number that is particular to our situation. They stopped teaching that kind of math in school so you young guy's will have to down load an app that will calculate the numbers for you. Either way, none of you will come up with numbers that match what the Government or Internet economist is coming up with. That is the point of the Deep State. Be so confusing that everyone shrugs their shoulders and walks away. It is working.

It is not the individual items that are killing our budget's, it's those once a year unexpected cost like an auto repair, a speeding ticket, a trip to the 24 hour clinic, a filling that fell out of a tooth or any number of other cost that can not be put off. When you put that charge on your credit card, compare credit card interest last year to this year...

The British / UK peg inflation / COLA at 8.5%. Personally I peg my inflation closer to 10%. Am I paying 10% more ?... I am simply doing without. That is how retirees on a fixed income are having to get by. Purchase less, get by.

‎Inflation Calculator & Data

‎The #1 Inflation Calculator on the App Store. Find out how much something would have cost or been worth in the past. View detailed results with beautiful graphs and tables. Save your favorite calculations. 26 currencies. US Dollar data from 1776 to 2023. Stay current with yearly updates...

apps.apple.com

 

[S3th]

I’m more confident in my view that Q3 will highlight a broad sector earnings recession. Q4 will be a recession. As of now, I think it will be short lived and we will move out of a recession as the FED cuts in Q2’24.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

I’m more confident in my view that Q3 will highlight a broad sector earnings recession. Q4 will be a recession. As of now, I think it will be short lived and we will move out of a recession as the FED cuts in Q2’24.

It could very well work out that way. Unfortunately the plan to get inflation down to 2% will conflict your prediction.
The Politicians can not "Have their cake and eat it, too"....
During Q4 they will try and cook the books and present a mirage of 2% inflation. The man on Main Street will not buy it.

 

[S3th]

It could very well work out that way. Unfortunately the plan to get inflation down to 2% will conflict your prediction.
The Politicians can not "Have their cake and eat it, too"....
During Q4 they will try and cook the books and present a mirage of 2% inflation. The man on Main Street will not buy it.

2.5% is the target and is a blended average for a period of time. It’s achievable.

 

[S3th]

UAW handing more market share to Tesla and China.

 

[E. Bryant]

2.5% is the target and is a blended average for a period of time. It’s achievable.

Yep, definitely achievable - with a couple percent higher interest rates, a few trillion dollars in quantitative tightening, and the economic pain that will follow the reversal of 15 years of bad fiscal policy.

 

[Lightning8]

I’m more confident in my view that Q3 will highlight a broad sector earnings recession. Q4 will be a recession. As of now, I think it will be short lived and we will move out of a recession as the FED cuts in Q2’24.

Inflation will never go away as long as the Federal government keeps spending money faster than we can borrow it. Add to that rising oil prices yielding higher gas and diesel (and power to charge EVs) will continue to add to inflation. Oil companies are just marching in place with no new sources of oil, no new refineries, minimal capital to improve/sustain existing infrastructure due to over-regulation.

 

[S3th]

Inflation doesn’t need to go away. In a fiat global economy, low inflation is better than no inflation.

 

[S3th]

I know that a 50 DMA is just an indicator but this has been amazing to see. S&P500, Nasdaq, Tesla… all rolling through multiple times in the last two weeks.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

I know that a 50 DMA is just an indicator but this has been amazing to see. S&P500, Nasdaq, Tesla… all rolling through multiple times in the last two weeks. View attachment 8227750

The curve is flattening. This has occurred in previous recessions. A reliable indicator of things to come.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Inflation doesn’t need to go away. In a fiat global economy, low inflation is better than no inflation.

I guess it all depends on how a man see's inflation.
I see it as the buying power of a USD is declining.
Historically, there was once a time in America when a man would work a 2 mule team (skidding logs) all week and was paid with 1 ounce of gold.
Another example was an ounce of gold would buy a Wall Street stock broker a new outfit (suit, tie, socks and shoes), That has not changed over time.
When America removed the "Gold Standard" the rest of the civilized world laughed.
Through out the rest of the world, the "Gold Standard" is alive and well.
The fiat money has lost it's luster.

 

[Gwak2006]

I guess it all depends on how a man see's inflation.
I see it as the buying power of a USD is declining.
Historically, there was once a time in America when a man would work a 2 mule team (skidding logs) all week and was paid with 1 ounce of gold.
Another example was an ounce of gold would buy a Wall Street stock broker a new outfit (suit, tie, socks and shoes), That has not changed over time.
When America removed the "Gold Standard" the rest of the civilized world laughed.
Through out the rest of the world, the "Gold Standard" is alive and well.
The fiat money has lost it's luster.

Regardless, we have to play the game. There are things you can do to be more self reliant, but as long as property taxes have to be paid in USD, you have to be in the game.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Regardless, we have to play the game. There are things you can do to be more self reliant, but as long as property taxes have to be paid in USD, you have to be in the game.

Several states have laws that will allow a resident to pay taxes in gold. I believe Utah was the first to make that legal.

The Utah Legal Tender Act, passed March 10, 2011, recognizes gold and silver coins issued by the United States[1] as legal tender in the state of Utah.[2] This includes allowing the state of Utah to pay off debts in gold and silver and allowing individuals to transact in gold and silver coins without paying state capital gains tax,[3] among other provisions.[4] The bill was introduced as HB317 by State Representative Brad J. Galvez.[5]

 

[Gwak2006]

Several states have laws that will allow a resident to pay taxes in gold. I believe Utah was the first to make that legal.

The Utah Legal Tender Act, passed March 10, 2011, recognizes gold and silver coins issued by the United States[1] as legal tender in the state of Utah.[2] This includes allowing the state of Utah to pay off debts in gold and silver and allowing individuals to transact in gold and silver coins without paying state capital gains tax,[3] among other provisions.[4] The bill was introduced as HB317 by State Representative Brad J. Galvez.[5]

I wish they would do that in Georgia.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

I wish they would do that in Georgia.

Just sit tight. It will come to every state as they realize the true value of a fiat dollar.
Carrying this a bit farther. people are worrying about the tax man taking their house if they can't pay taxes. The US Government learned a lesson after the S&L crash of the late 80's. The government bailed out the banks and ended up with thousands of homes... Lesson learned. The banks and Government don't want houses.

The Resolution Trust Corporation (RTC) was a U.S. government-owned asset management company run by Lewis William Seidman and charged with liquidating assets, primarily real estate-related assets such as mortgage loans, that had been assets of savings and loan associations (S&Ls) declared insolvent by the Office of Thrift Supervision (OTS) as a consequence of the savings and loan crisis of the 1980s.[1] It also took over the insurance functions of the former Federal Home Loan Bank Board (FHLBB).

Between 1989 and mid-1995, the Resolution Trust Corporation closed or otherwise resolved 747 thrifts with total assets of $394 billion.[2] Its funding was provided by the Resolution Funding Corporation (REFCORP) which still exists to support the debt obligations it created for these functions.

 

[E. Bryant]

Inflation doesn’t need to go away. In a fiat global economy, low inflation is better than no inflation.

The problem is that we don't have low inflation, and that the inflation is being caused by the gross and persistent mis-allocation of resources.

 

[Bigfatcock]

I wish they would do that in Georgia.

Georgia hates its residents.

 

[Lightning8]

Georgia hates its residents.

We should all move to Wyoming - course we would freeze to death.

 

[NoDopes]

Digital currency based on gold and silver?

Nope.

Digital currency built on Texas gold? Here's what's being proposed.

The bill would allow deposits of gold or silver into the state's bullion depository to be spent from an account just like with a debit or credit card.

www.statesman.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Digital currency based on gold and silver?

Nope.

Digital currency built on Texas gold? Here's what's being proposed.

The bill would allow deposits of gold or silver into the state's bullion depository to be spent from an account just like with a debit or credit card.

www.statesman.com

I think it will come about.
Yes, there are more security issues to work out.
15 years ago it became known that the University of Texas had quite a bit of physical gold.
This movement has been going on for several years.
The fiat USD is losing buying power rapidly.
Some will see this as a "Safe Haven"..

Hoard 'em, Horns! University of Texas sitting on nearly $1B in gold bullion - InvestmentNews

Apparently, investment officials for Longhorn endowment not overly bullish; also invest for Texas A&M

www.investmentnews.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

NEW YORK, Sept 15 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve losses breached the $100 billion mark, central bank data released on Thursday showed, and they're likely to go a lot higher before the red ink stops.

The U.S. central bank is continuing to pay out more in interest costs than it takes in from the interest it earns on bonds it owns and from the services it provides to the financial sector. While there's considerable uncertainty around how it will all play out, some observers believe Fed losses, which began a year ago, could eventually as much as double before abating.

Fed losses breach $100 billion as interest costs rise

Federal Reserve losses breached the $100 billion mark, central bank data released on Thursday showed, and they're likely to go a lot higher before the red ink stops.

www.reuters.com

 

[E. Bryant]

Digital currency based on gold and silver?

Nope.

That's my first reaction as well - but it's probably a better option than all other digital currencies as well as the paper dollar (which I currently depend upon to denominate more than half my total wealth).

I'm not saying that I'd go all-on on such a security (same is true of literally any investment), but if it was openly traded then I'd certainly be interested in a modest investment for the purpose of providing liquidity for conducting normal transactions.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Chip designer Arm secured a $54.5 billion valuation in its U.S. initial public offering (IPO) on Wednesday, seven years after SoftBank took the company private for $32 billion.

SoftBank seeks OpenAI tie-up as Son plans deal spree after Arm IPO, Financial Times reports

SoftBank is looking for deals in artificial intelligence (AI), including a potential investment in OpenAI, after the blockbuster listing of its Arm unit, the Financial Times reported on Saturday.

www.reuters.com

 

[S3th]

Wow. SoftBank actually made money?

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Seems the consensus is the USD will lose 40% of it's purchasing power by the year 2027 +/-.....
Someone knows some things "We the People" don't know.

UAW rejects Stellantis' 21% pay hike offer: 'We’ve asked for 40%'​

UAW rejects Stellantis' 21% pay hike offer: 'We’ve asked for 40%'

United Auto Workers president Shawn Fain says a recent offer from Stellantis to hike wages is “definitely a no-go" as his union wants higher increases.

www.foxbusiness.com

 

[Redmanss]

Seems the consensus is the USD will lose 40% of it's purchasing power by the year 2027 +/-.....
Someone knows some things "We the People" don't know.

UAW rejects Stellantis' 21% pay hike offer: 'We’ve asked for 40%'​

UAW rejects Stellantis' 21% pay hike offer: 'We’ve asked for 40%'

United Auto Workers president Shawn Fain says a recent offer from Stellantis to hike wages is “definitely a no-go" as his union wants higher increases.

www.foxbusiness.com

Less to do with present day or future inflation, more to do with lack of raises going back over a decade. It’s also a bargaining position and very unlikely to come to fruition until the strikes go month plus and full UAW workforce wide.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Inflation doesn’t need to go away. In a fiat global economy, low inflation is better than no inflation.

Why ?
Personally, if there had been no inflation during my lifetime that $200 / week paycheck would have me pickin' in high cotton.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Less to do with present day or future inflation, more to do with lack of raises going back over a decade. It’s also a bargaining position and very unlikely to come to fruition until the strikes go month plus and full UAW workforce wide.

Similar circumstances with the airline pilots and they got the 40%

 

[Lightning8]

Seems the consensus is the USD will lose 40% of it's purchasing power by the year 2027 +/-.....
Someone knows some things "We the People" don't know.

UAW rejects Stellantis' 21% pay hike offer: 'We’ve asked for 40%'​

UAW rejects Stellantis' 21% pay hike offer: 'We’ve asked for 40%'

United Auto Workers president Shawn Fain says a recent offer from Stellantis to hike wages is “definitely a no-go" as his union wants higher increases.

www.foxbusiness.com

Does not matter - smoke and mirrors - if all vehicles go EV then transmission and ICE engine facilities close and workers all laid off. UAW supports Democrats while Democrats kill their jobs. They better hope for Universal Basic Income sooner and negotiate bigger UBI checks.

 

[Redmanss]

Similar circumstances with the airline pilots and they got the 40%

Airline pilots had much more strength in their bargaining position, simply because so many of them retired out during Covid and it takes years to qualify a new pilot off the street to even be a First Officer. They couldn’t lose the few they had left, so they had to make them happy because freight carriers were begging for pilots all the same and would have easily poached them out of passenger lines.

Take the Flight Attendants asking for the same. Much more easily replaced, theirs will likely go PEB and they’ll be lucky to see half that with a bit of concession on hours paid on the part of the carriers, with Biden (or the next) blocking any possible strike and forcing them to accept the likely PEB terms.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

The Exodus of CEO's continues. A good time to get out.
_______________
Krispy Kreme (ticker: DNUT) tapped Josh Charlesworth, its current chief operating officer, to head up the company starting Jan. 1. He succeeds current CEO Michael Tattersfield, who has held the role since 2017. Krispy Kreme stock fluctuated between gains and losses Monday morning.

Krispy Kreme Names New CEO, Reaffirms Guidance

Donut chain Krispy Kreme named Josh Charlesworth, its current chief operating officer, as CEO to succeed Michael Tattersfield.

www.barrons.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Hmmmmm....
LOL
___________
Hedge-fund manager Bill Ackman and other investors have recently called on investors to bet against the 30-year, with Ackman saying in early August that his firm had taken a large bet against the bonds, believing that the yield could soon rise to 5.5%. Bond yields move inversely to prices, rising as prices fall and vice versa. ????

Popular Treasury bond ETF crashes to lowest level in more than 12 years as yields surge

www.morningstar.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Keying off the above article:
Interest rates will be higher for longer.
"MAINTAIN" what you have. Don't use up your disposable income and durable goods during the storm. Repair your old vehicle, keep up with oil changes, tire replacement and some sort of insurance for when that uninsured illegal alien T Bones you. Right now, replacing your vehicle after an accident is damn near impossible with what insurance companies are paying. Especially on old pickup trucks.
One is none, two is one and three puts you in the cat bird seat.

TLT
The ETF has been falling for weeks as Treasury yields have trended higher, but it was rocked last week as yields on the 10-year Treasury note and 30-year Treasury bond shot higher following Wednesday's Federal Reserve press conference, where the central bank and its chairman, Jerome Powell, unveiled plans to keep interest rates higher for longer than investors had previously expected.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

I watched CEO's during previous recessions try and "Tame the Lion"... They all failed and left with their tail between their legs. These young CEO's watched that fiasco. These CEO's took the big pandemic bail out money, stock options and cut a fat hog in the ass. Another one that will take the money and run. Set for life.
__________

I’m excited to share that Dave Limp will join Blue starting December 4th as CEO, replacing Bob, who has elected to step aside on January 2. The overlap is purposeful to ensure a smooth transition.

Jeff Bezos' Blue Origin to replace CEO Bob Smith with former Amazon exec Dave Limp

Jeff Bezos' Blue Origin will replace CEO Bob Smith with former Amazon exec Dave Limp, CNBC has learned.

www.cnbc.com

 

[S3th]

 

[Hobo Hilton]

View attachment 8235567

How does that maintenance cost look at the 20 year mark ?

 

[S3th]

How does that maintenance cost look at the 20 year mark ?

we need to wait for a few more years to determine

 

[Hobo Hilton]

we need to wait for a few more years to determine

We see those old Mercedes still zipping along in foreign countries, deserts and rain forest when they are 30 years old... Surely the maintenance cost drops off the older they get..... And about the cost of that Tesla battery !

 

[Hobo Hilton]

A prudent move by Ford.
_______________
Ford Motor Company has announced it is halting construction works at a planned $3.5-billion EV battery factory in Michigan until it is confident the plant can be run competitively.
Ford’s announcement comes amid a strike by the United Auto Workers (UAW) union and concerns in Congress over the alliance of one of Detroit’s Big Three with the biggest Chinese and global battery maker, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited (CATL).
In February this year, Ford said it had picked Marshall, Michigan, to invest $3.5 billion to build the country’s first automaker-backed lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) battery plant.
Under the arrangement, Ford’s wholly-owned subsidiary would manufacture the battery cells using LFP battery cell knowledge and services provided by CATL, Ford said at the time.

Ford Halts Construction At $3.5-Billion EV Battery Plant In Michigan | OilPrice.com

Ford has announced it will halt construction works at a planned EV battery factory in Michigan until it is confident the plant can be run competitively.

oilprice.com

 

[S3th]

Electric cars approach ‘tipping point’ as battery prices plummet

‘The death of the internal combustion engine is near,’ says energy analyst

www.independent.co.uk

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited (CATL).
__________________
I'm just one old guy on a fixed income trying to keep my equipment operating. This year I have returned more Chinese manufactured items than any other time in my life. I have several things still running 12 volt starters that are 20+ years old. I'm buying some replacement starters, made in China, that fail after 2 months of normal use. Now the suppliers (Amazon, Ebay, etc) have shortened up their warranty time. Like hand writing on the wall. Some of this junk seems to go out of warranty when I break the seal on the box. Buyer has to pay shipping to return the item. So, most Americans will not pay $14 to return a $25 item. See how this plan is working out ?

So now CATL will be the manufacturer of the battery in your new car.

Tesla supplier CATL unveils battery that can add up to 400km of range in 10 minutes | TechCrunch

CATL, the Chinese battery giant and a major supplier to Tesla, has unveiled its latest product that aims to solve electric vehicles' charging and range

techcrunch.com

CATL

Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited (CATL) is a global leader in new energy innovative technologies, committed to providing premier solutions and services for new energy applications worldwide.

www.catl.com

Rubio Seeks Pledge From Biden For No Federal Dollars To Partnership Between Ford, CCP National Champion | Senator Rubio

www.rubio.senate.gov

 

[S3th]

Yes, America has underinvested in batteries and conversion for decades.

CATL is a tier 1 producer.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Yes, America has underinvested in batteries and conversion for decades.

CATL is a tier 1 producer.

View attachment 8235846

But... It's still a battery. And, when it's dead, it's dead.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Considering dropping my Costco membership. Store is an hour away. Not worth the drive to save a nickel a gallon. Last time I was there the packaging had gotten much larger. Had the membership forever. Worked well with a family of 4, not so much with a household of one. I go there just for the groceries. Thinking I'd be better off to take that $65 spent on membership and buy groceries at Winco or Walmart...
Costco - Selling less and charging more.

Costco tops quarterly earnings expectations, even as sales remain soft

Costco topped quarterly earnings and revenue expectations, even as sales trends at the membership club slowed.

www.cnbc.com