Stock Market

[Hobo Hilton]

At the beginning of the pandemic I started noticing other "markets" of the world that appeared to have a bit more resilience than the US Markets. Just as an example... When a Black Swan would emerge the US Markets might drop 3% and an Asian or European market drop only 2%.

As the war in the Ukraine progressed the CAC, DAX and the RUT (Russell 2000) all began to start down trending. Interesting that the UKX initially dropped shortly after the first of the year but has trended upwards (or held it's own).

UKX is the United Kingdom
CAC is France
DAX is Germany
RUT is a market basket of 2000 US stocks

Curious as to how the United Kingdom is avoiding the downturn. Did they have the foresight to posture themselves for the recession? Are they simply being better manager's as the world enters a slow down?

IDK

HSBC FTSE 100 UCITS ETF, FR:UKX Advanced Chart - (PAR) FR:UKX, HSBC FTSE 100 UCITS ETF Stock Price - BigCharts.com

FR:UKX - HSBC FTSE 100 UCITS ETF Advanced Chart, Quote and financial news from the leading provider and award-winning BigCharts.com.

bigcharts.marketwatch.com

 

[S3th]

Curious as to how the United Kingdom is avoiding the downturn. Did they have the foresight to posture themselves for the recession? Are they simply being better manager's as the world enters a slow down?

I honestly don't follow their central bank much but just on a 1-year outlook, GBP has been strengthing vs. EUR.

So likely central banking views and not being a part of Europe/Russia issues plays a large part.

USD continues to strengthen against most currencies.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Bank of England was ahead of the pack on raising interest rates.

Bank of England raises interest rates again to control inflation

The bank's decision comes a week after the U.S. Federal Reserve said it would end its own asset purchases in March and was likely to raise interest rates for the first time in more than three years.

www.businesstoday.in

 

[eca7891]

Which market/country has all the foreign money flowing into it?

Follow the money

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Which market/country has all the foreign money flowing into it?

Follow the money

In coastal oceanography, the terms ebb and flood refer to tidal currents.

I agree. Over time the money / currency traders make billions of dollars. Just look at the past week with Elon and Twitter. Insiders made billions of $$$ overnight ....

The uncertainty of the world is moving money. Smart money managers want the safe havens for their money.

 

[eca7891]

Just look at the past week with Elon and Twitter. Insiders made billions of $$$ overnight ....

We may have a different view on this.

People see value in his investment and with him being on the board. I do not begrudge him and others that have made money from this. Some of these “ insiders” would prefer him not to be there at all.

Remember that a large portion of these overnight gains took place only when it was announced that musk was the one who was buying up shares over the last months.

 

[eca7891]

Keep in mind that you only “make” those billions had you sold on that spike.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Keep in mind that you only “make” those billions had you sold on that spike.

True.... But when you are playing with a $billion you only have to be right 51% of the time. Elon has played well.

 

[S3th]

 

[Hobo Hilton]

View attachment 7845916

Interesting... That looks like the history of Chrysler Corporation.....

2007–2014: Effects of Great Recession​

The economic collapse of 2007 to 2009 pushed the fragile company to the brink. On April 30, 2009, the automaker filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection to be able to operate as a going concern, while renegotiating its debt structure and other obligations,[47] which resulted in the corporation defaulting on over $4 billion in secured debts.[47] The U.S. government described the company's action as a "prepackaged surgical bankruptcy".[47]

 

[S3th]

Interesting... That looks like the history of Chrysler Corporation.....

2007–2014: Effects of Great Recession​

The economic collapse of 2007 to 2009 pushed the fragile company to the brink. On April 30, 2009, the automaker filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection to be able to operate as a going concern, while renegotiating its debt structure and other obligations,[47] which resulted in the corporation defaulting on over $4 billion in secured debts.[47] The U.S. government described the company's action as a "prepackaged surgical bankruptcy".[47]

I don't see the connection.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

I don't see the connection.

Several conditions caused this change... What changed was "The desire / need of the customer"... Over a period of time Chrysler failed to give them what they wanted. The EV's will walk the same path.

I'm old enough to remember the "Chrysler Hemi's". They were a dominating beast on the race tracks. NASCAR outlawed them for a while. Price of gasoline spiked and people sold the Hemi's and bought a Volkswagen or a Toyota. Then one of the "Baby Boom's" took off and the Doge Caravan was in demand. Kids grew up and left the next, people got old. They did not want to climb up or down to get out of their vehicles... The crossover SUV's showed up... Toyota Forerunners took a big part of that market.

People change, Elon will change. After he dominates the market, he will get bored, sell out for billions to a corporation who will run the business into the dirt. History repeating itself.

Link:

Carl Kiekhaefer - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[S3th]

Several conditions caused this change... What changed was "The desire / need of the customer"... Over a period of time Chrysler failed to give them what they wanted. The EV's will walk the same path.

I'm old enough to remember the "Chrysler Hemi's". They were a dominating beast on the race tracks. NASCAR outlawed them for a while. Price of gasoline spiked and people sold the Hemi's and bought a Volkswagen or a Toyota. Then one of the "Baby Boom's" took off and the Doge Caravan was in demand. Kids grew up and left the next, people got old. They did not want to climb up or down to get out of their vehicles... The crossover SUV's showed up... Toyota Forerunners took a big part of that market.

People change, Elon will change. After he dominates the market, he will get bored, sell out for billions to a corporation who will run the business into the dirt. History repeating itself.

Link:

Carl Kiekhaefer - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

TSLA will end up paying dividends that Elon will use to cash flow new businesses and Mars. Elon will step down at some point; as we have seen with all FAANG.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

TSLA will end up paying dividends that Elon will use to cash flow new businesses and Mars. Elon will step down at some point; as we have seen with all FAANG.

Your mission, S3th, should you decide to accept it, is to unload TSLA at the very peak of it's share price. As always, should you or any of your IM Force be caught or killed, the Secretary will disavow any knowledge of your actions. This tape will self-destruct in five seconds. unload TSLA at the very peak of it's share price

 

[IkeEng]

Your mission, S3th, should you decide to accept it, is to unload TSLA at the very peak of it's share price. As always, should you or any of your IM Force be caught or killed, the Secretary will disavow any knowledge of your actions. This tape will self-destruct in five seconds. unload TSLA at the very peak of it's share price

He is never going to sell.

 

[S3th]

He is never going to sell.

The business model and story would have to change significantly for me to exit. I think there could be a tremendous risk in Optimus. If we start seeing billions or tens of billions being thrown at that project (with no progress, poor execution, etc) I would likely exit.

 

[IkeEng]

The business model and story would have to change significantly for me to exit. I think there could be a tremendous risk in Optimus. If we start seeing billions or tens of billions being thrown at that project (with no progress, poor execution, etc) I would likely exit.

Yeah, that project could turn into a money pit, but if they have guys with half the talent as the Space X teams they might just pull it off. Not so sure about it going into production next year. That's an aggressive target.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Elon has spoken:
Elon Musk tweeted Tesla may get into the lithium mining and refining business directly and at scale because the cost of the metal, a key component in manufacturing batteries, has gotten so high.“Price of lithium has gone to insane levels,” Musk tweeted. “There is no shortage of the element itself, as lithium is almost everywhere on Earth, but pace of extraction/refinement is slow.”

Interesting thoughts. We are discussing the battery recyclers and other aspects of lithium. Even if Elon extracts / refines lithium all he is doing is cutting out the middle man. What's it worth to cut out the middle man ? As I was told recently, lithium will not be a "winner take all" endeavor.

Elon Musk says Tesla may have to get into the lithium business because costs are so 'insane'

According to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, the cost of the metal has gone up more than 480% in the last year.

www.cnbc.com

 

[S3th]

Elon has spoken:
Elon Musk tweeted Tesla may get into the lithium mining and refining business directly and at scale because the cost of the metal, a key component in manufacturing batteries, has gotten so high.“Price of lithium has gone to insane levels,” Musk tweeted. “There is no shortage of the element itself, as lithium is almost everywhere on Earth, but pace of extraction/refinement is slow.”

Interesting thoughts. We are discussing the battery recyclers and other aspects of lithium. Even if Elon extracts / refines lithium all he is doing is cutting out the middle man. What's it worth to cut out the middle man ? As I was told recently, lithium will not be a "winner take all" endeavor.

Elon Musk says Tesla may have to get into the lithium business because costs are so 'insane'

According to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, the cost of the metal has gone up more than 480% in the last year.

www.cnbc.com

Securing supply chain>, especially in this space. I was hoping Tesla would move into the battery recycling space at a minimum.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Securing supply chain>, especially in this space. I was hoping Tesla would move into the battery recycling space at a minimum.

Everyone is attempting to secure their supply chain. Talked with a nation wide contractor this morning. They are bidding work into the middle of 2023. He said the contracts were getting more and more exclusions and pages added.... Kind of like wearing two condoms, just in case... What's next ?

 

[S3th]

Everyone is attempting to secure their supply chain. Talked with a nation wide contractor this morning. They are bidding work into the middle of 2023. He said the contracts were getting more and more exclusions and pages added.... Kind of like wearing two condoms, just in case... What's next ?

How many are securing their supply chain by vertically integrating it?

 

[Hobo Hilton]

How many are securing their supply chain by vertically integrating it?

Probably more than we know. Vertical integrating has been around a long time.

One example:
McDonald's is one of the most famous companies using vertical integration to reduce its overall costs and increase profits. They own factories that produce mixtures of ingredients that they can then distribute to all their stores by McDonald's trucks. Sep 12, 2017

 

[eca7891]

Securing supply chain>, especially in this space. I was hoping Tesla would move into the battery recycling space at a minimum.

I would assume he will get into recycling as well.

Securing his own source helps eliminate potential delays in the future.

 

[S3th]

@Hobo Hilton what is in your portfolio?

 

[Hobo Hilton]

@Hobo Hilton what is in your portfolio?

Miners like BHP, KO stuff held for a long time.... DRIP's that sort of thing. Sunk most of my money in my property in late 2019...
Physical gold, silver.... Nothing outstanding. Member of the Poor's.

 

[eca7891]

More banks predicting “stressing” times in the future. Times and events that most Americans are not use to and have not had to deal with. Americans are not ready for the mindset required for such times.

Seems to be a growing consensus that recession or stagflation will happen sooner than expected.

Talk about “the fed taking measures to deflate the stock market in order to get inflation under control. Leading to increased losses from stock and bond holders.”

None of that sounds very good.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

More banks predicting “stressing” times in the future. Times and events that most Americans are not use to and have not had to deal with. Americans are not ready for the mindset required for such times.

Seems to be a growing consensus that recession or stagflation will happen sooner than expected.

Talk about “the fed taking measures to deflate the stock market in order to get inflation under control. Leading to increased losses from stock and bond holders.”

None of that sounds very good.

Funny how things go.... Most of the time " things that don't sound good" are just reality looking us in the face. Not to sound cold but, welcome to reality. Next step, now that we accept reality, it is time to deal with it..... or ... Drop off into denial. I have a few neighbors who had Biden / Harris signs in their yard before election time. I get along with them because when the SHTF, no one is coming to save us. None of them see the upcoming recession. They are just going about their merry way... When they ask about my dirt work, I explain my goal is to harvest enough corn to feed my chickens for a year. I get the puzzled look, like, you can just go to the farm store next year and buy chicken food.

I agree, none of that sounds very good.

 

[eca7891]

Looking back upon what was said the end of last year to the beginning of this year. “they” thought things were going to start to turn worse 3rd or 4th quarter of this year, it started around the end of the first quarter.

“They” also predicted recession late 2023 but now it seems much sooner.

It’s looking like we have less time than expected.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Looking back upon what was said the end of last year to the beginning of this year. “they” thought things were going to start to turn worse 3rd or 4th quarter of this year, it started around the end of the first quarter.

“They” also predicted recession late 2023 but now it seems much sooner.

It’s looking like we have less time than expected.

I'll jog your memory........ When that Virus stimulus money was being handed out, President Trump was trying to mandate that it did not go to companies to buy back their own stock. That was, I believe in early 2021 or late 2020.... They all knew then what the future was looking like. Those stock buy backs only quickened the pace of the recession... that money did nothing for commerce.

I think there is enough food in the supply chain so there will be few empty grocery shelves during 2022.... But things will tighten up. It would be good practice to have enough of your "favorite food items" to get you by during the shortages.

Oil and wheat seem to be where the disruptions will begin to occur. There is plenty of both around, just transporting it will be the challenge.

 

[eca7891]

think there is enough food in the supply chain so there will be few empty grocery shelves during 2022....

I already am seeing plenty of empty shelves in area.

It will not just be oil and wheat. It will be any commodities that rely on fertilizer. Corn takes a lot for example. Avian flu is wiping out 10’s of millions of poultry birds, fryers/layers. It will not be limited only to “ your favorites “.

 

[NoDopes]

How To Start A Mealworm Farm: A Comprehensive Guide For Beginners

Starting a mealworm farm is cheap, easy, and fun! Whether you are raising mealworms for chickens or fishing bait, a mealworms farm is useful for nearly everyone.

www.heritageacresmarket.com

 

[pmclaine]

Man the dude that started this thread was way off.

Never saw America knuckling the way it has.

Three things I remember.......

Working next to the Atlantic Ocean on an unseasonably warm February day after Trumps SOTU when Pelosi ripped up the speech thinking there is no way he is not re-elected.

Sitting in my barber chair and the school superintendent had announced that all business in town was going to close the next day. I told the barbaress, "She is the school super, what right does she have to shut business down?" It was my last haircut before I had to buy trimmers and have done my own since.

This time last April killing it work wise and buying fountain pens was the latest obsession.

What a mess.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

I already am seeing plenty of empty shelves in area.

It will not just be oil and wheat. It will be any commodities that rely on fertilizer. Corn takes a lot for example. Avian flu is wiping out 10’s of millions of poultry birds, fryers/layers. It will not be limited only to “ your favorites “.

The fertilizer situation has resembled domino's falling. The first fertilizer domino fell when a hurricane came ashore in Louisiana and tidal surge knocked out a very large fertilizer plant near Lake Charles. The chain of events has continued to disrupt the fertilizer industry. So, yes, there will be shortages but there will be a supply that will be very expensive.
The US has a large amount of grain stocks (wheat, corn and soy beans) from previous years, in storage. Link below will show those figures.
An issue - America has been a very benevolent society. This administration MUST stop the export of food commodities immediately if we are to survive and rebuild after the recession. In the environment I was raised in, the term was "It's just business".

The US has both enough oil and gas to sustain the country for many years. This administration must do everything possible to open the flow of new oil ( Not the Reserves), allow it to be transported to the refineries, update and build refineries, stock the storage facilities and stop the export of petroleum products until America can sustain itself.

These are only two issues. America has abundant natural resources that are being squandered. Every year forest are allowed to burn rather than be harvested and processed. Our children (a resource) are being squandered. Government rules, regulations and mandates hobble commerce while being enforced by a corrupt court system. But, the members here have discussed this for a long time.

As society collapses there will be phases of "die off's"... If a man can survive the first 2 - 3 die off's the world around him will be evolving. Much of it will be back to the "Law's of Nature" with the cornerstone of Survival of the Fittest. Our challenge is to become one of the fittest and maintain that mindset.

https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/xg94hp534/rn302354n/h128ph75h/grst0122.pdf

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Man the dude that started this thread was way off.

Never saw America knuckling the way it has.

Three things I remember.......

Working next to the Atlantic Ocean on an unseasonably warm February day after Trumps SOTU when Pelosi ripped up the speech thinking there is no way he is not re-elected.

Sitting in my barber chair and the school superintendent had announced that all business in town was going to close the next day. I told the barbaress, "She is the school super, what right does she have to shut business down?" It was my last haircut before I had to buy trimmers and have done my own since.

This time last April killing it work wise and buying fountain pens was the latest obsession.

What a mess.

That dude that started this thread was ahead of his time......... He is a big asset to this group. I'd guess that somewhere way back in the back of his brain he has a "What if file".... Part of the LEO world.... You know the deal in training "Build a File" so when the SHTF the file pops open.... Well guy's, the files are starting to pop open. Listen to your intuition.

 

[E. Bryant]

Man the dude that started this thread was way off.

Never saw America knuckling the way it has.

Three things I remember.......

Working next to the Atlantic Ocean on an unseasonably warm February day after Trumps SOTU when Pelosi ripped up the speech thinking there is no way he is not re-elected.

Sitting in my barber chair and the school superintendent had announced that all business in town was going to close the next day. I told the barbaress, "She is the school super, what right does she have to shut business down?" It was my last haircut before I had to buy trimmers and have done my own since.

This time last April killing it work wise and buying fountain pens was the latest obsession.

What a mess.

... and despite all that, the S&P 500 is *up* 52% since you kicked off this thread. Try to wrap your head around that.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

... and despite all that, the S&P 500 is *up* 52% since you kicked off this thread. Try to wrap your head around that.

That falls under the same category as a "stolen election"..... Something is not adding up. Mega corporations took free money and bought back their stock.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Securing supply chain>, especially in this space. I was hoping Tesla would move into the battery recycling space at a minimum.

Looks like the UK is getting up to speed so it can charge all those EV's.

Energy strategy: UK plans eight new nuclear reactors to boost production

The government wants to boost UK energy production and independence as household bills soar.

www.bbc.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

How many are securing their supply chain by vertically integrating it?

We can all learn things from this guy... He is good.

 

[S3th]

We can all learn things from this guy... He is good.

I didn't watch it all but I can relate. I do as much service work as possible to my own vehicles. I believe as Tesla's become more and more popular and takes on a greater market share, non-OEM parts will come out.

Remember though, dealerships don't make money from selling vehicles; they make it through service.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

I didn't watch it all but I can relate. I do as much service work as possible to my own vehicles. I believe as Tesla's become more and more popular and takes on a greater market share, non-OEM parts will come out.

Remember though, dealerships don't make money from selling vehicles; they make it through service.

I'll carry this discussion one step farther.... Imagine an auto manufacturer (tractor mfg, forklift mfg, equipment mfg) who would design and build a vehicle with the maximum amount of "plug and play" parts..... Easy access panels, enough ground clearance to not need a lift rack, and keep on using the same components year after year. Have plug and play receptacles for accessories (radio, intermittent wipers, back up camera, cruse control, deluxe lighting package, etc. The basic vehicle would get a person from Point A to Point B. Dealership would supply all the plug and play toys. When one of these was wrecked an owner could just take all the plug and play stuff and put it on his new chassis....

Pick that concept apart.

 

[S3th]

I'll carry this discussion one step farther.... Imagine an auto manufacturer (tractor mfg, forklift mfg, equipment mfg) who would design and build a vehicle with the maximum amount of "plug and play" parts..... Easy access panels, enough ground clearance to not need a lift rack, and keep on using the same components year after year. Have plug and play receptacles for accessories (radio, intermittent wipers, back up camera, cruse control, deluxe lighting package, etc. The basic vehicle would get a person from Point A to Point B. Dealership would supply all the plug and play toys. When one of these was wrecked an owner could just take all the plug and play stuff and put it on his new chassis....

Pick that concept apart.

1st thought... most people would rather open the wallet vs. do it themselves.

 

[E. Bryant]

Remember though, dealerships don't make money from selling vehicles; they make it through service.

People keep on saying this like it's true, but it's not. New-vehicle sales margins at the dealer level are roughly equivalent to what the OE makes on each unit, and that was before the market got stupid.

Service revenue varies wildly by brand. The dealers doing $500 oil changes on German cars are wading through knee-deep piles of cash, while those getting stuck doing flat-rate work replacing head gaskets under warranty are running substantially leaner operations.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

“In the midst of chaos, there is also opportunity” ― Sun Tzu.

Wheat.... Appearing to be the most chaotic ingredient of the food markets. Price is up 75% from a year ago. It takes a dependable combine to harvest wheat. Largest manufacturer's of combines are John Deere (DE), Case / New Holland (CNHI) , Massey Fergerson (AGCO). All have taken a dip in the market which could be a buying opportunity. Exports for this equipment should improve. A lot of unknowns in the future. One sure thing is people have to eat, at any price.

List of Top Combine Harvester Manufacturers

Combine harvesters are currently the world's largest agricultural harvesting implement. Combines are particularly versatile because they are capable of being fitted with different heads in order to effectively harvest a variety of grains. Four combine manufacturers are the largest and most...

itstillruns.com

 

[S3th]

Red day thus far... repurchased my $ENPH shares I sold in the $205s.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Red day thus far... repurchased my $ENPH shares I sold in the $205s.

The Players took the weekend and read their tea leaves ( interest rates, housing bubble, a never ending war, shortages in the food commodities, banks holding less money in savings accounts, consumer debt ratcheting up, oil price dropping, widening gap between have's and have not's, uncertainties worldwide) and put in sell orders to take money off the table and buy physical gold.
JMHO
Kroger — Shares for the grocery chain jumped nearly 3% after Bank of America upgraded Kroger’s stock to buy from neutral. The firm believes Kroger can pass on the cost of rising food prices to customers.

From Pakistan to Peru, soaring food and fuel prices are tipping countries over the edge | CNN Business

When people took to the streets in Egypt in 2011, protesters chanted about freedom and social justice, but also bread. The cost of pantry staples had jumped due to the skyrocketing price of goods like wheat, stoking fury with President Hosni Mubarak.

www.cnn.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Take a moment and let this sink in. It is happening before our very eyes:
We will look back at current events and realize that they marked the change from a dollar-based global economy underwritten by financial assets to commodity-backed currencies. We face a change from collateral being purely financial in nature to becoming commodity based. It is collateral that underwrites the whole financial system.

America is loosing ground on commodities every day.... Link is to a long read. Just brief it to get the jest of what is happening.

The Commodity Currency Revolution

We will look back at current events and realise that they marked the change from a dollar-based global economy underwritten by financial assets to commodity-backed currencies. We face a change from collateral being purely financial in nature to becoming commodity-based. It is collateral that...

www.gold-eagle.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

I don't see the connection.

ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

 

[S3th]

ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

The beautiful thing is, this is temporary. Any short-term stock price damage I gladly welcome to gobble up more.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Worldwide:

HANG SENG INDEX
(Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited:HSI)​

 

[S3th]

ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

Also, if you didn’t know. Gordon is a permanent Tesla bear. His price target is around $40.


"Chinese Tesla buyers have recently rushed to place orders, worried that Tesla may raise prices further after announcing price hikes in November and March due to the higher costs of raw materials." - Reuters