Stock Market

[264Proto]

Okay. What’s the play the with my USD?

Its pretty much guaranteed not to increase in value any time soon right?

I got nothing beyond that.

This whole exercise/manipulation of currency, markets and goods is all about making you and I more dependent on government

Its communist central planning 101

You're a lot easier to control if you're afraid, worried about where your next meal is going to come from and whether or not you're going to freeze to death in your own home this winter.

 

[SilentStalkr]

Not gone if you do not sell. The market has always recovered - if it does not recover this time then we have much bigger issues

Agreed! And I’m buying more.

 

[eca7891]

What proto said but in spades.

If we can use that word anymore??

***-200 social credit score for word usage. ***

 

[S3th]

 

[eca7891]

View attachment 7868535

That meter is going to have to be added onto the left side to remain accurate.

 

[E. Bryant]

The VIX is only running in the mid/high 30s. It hit ~65 in Mar 2020, low 40 in Aug 2011, and was just shy of 80 when Lehman Bros folded. I think it's a bit premature to suggest that we've hit Peak Fear.

Also note that it doesn't take Fear to sell off. Sometimes it's perfectly logical.

 

[S3th]

Elon - “Twitter deal temporarily on hold pending details supporting calculation that spam/fake accounts do indeed represent less than 5% of users”

Too bad my puts already expired.

 

[NoDopes]

Was that a total head fake deal? It never made sense to me.

 

[S3th]

Was that a total head fake deal? It never made sense to me.

I think the offer was based on certain goals/metrics. He knew they wouldn’t hit everything thus he could renegotiate the price. This is bullish for Tesla and also why I didn’t buy stock but puts.

 

[eca7891]

I still think it may go through. It just might not be at the price he originally offered.

 

[Graywolf.260]

I bought a few June 45 TWTR puts

I sold those puts a little early, made 100% profit but could have made 900% if I waited one more day, lol.

 

[CMP70306]

So is todays rally Monday’s crash or does it look like we’ve hit bottom?

 

[devildog93]

Oh I don't think this is bottom. I don't think we've even accelerated down yet other than crypto. When the food shortages start hitting from lack of fertilizer that should do it.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Typical Friday in an uneasy market. "Buying to Cover" has run up the share prices. For those holding long (at a loss) here is a good exit point. Enjoy the weekend and don't worry about this market.

Don't be fooled by the "Dead Cat Bounces".... This is not the bottom.

 

[eca7891]

If you have anything to sell today is the day.

Buy it back next week.

There is such a thing as bear market rallying and it’s short lived.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

So is todays rally Monday’s crash or does it look like we’ve hit bottom?

The bottom is so far away... It can't be seen from here. Even Monday is an uncertainty.
All this static we are hearing about things getting better is from people who have not lived through 3 - 4 recessions. Don't be fooled.

 

[hollowoutadime]

Was that a total head fake deal? It never made sense to me.

Don't know but it's nice seeing all the panic and resignations. If I had deep pockets like his I'd F with people too.

 

[eca7891]

I’ll post this here because it could have an impact on this subject.



Notice the farmer says a year min ( that’s for the farmer) it will be a 2 year min for the consumer.

The farmers crop ( current planting )will impact next years feed or this falls produce.

 

[S3th]

• Mortgage balances shown on consumer credit reports increased by $250 billion during the first quarter of 2022 and stood at $11.18 trillion at the end of March. Balances on home equity lines of credit (HELOC) were relatively flat and have been for the past 3 quarters, bucking a declining trend in place since 2016Q4; the outstanding HELOC balance stands at $317 billion. Credit card balances declined by $15 billion, a typical seasonal change. Credit card balances had declined significantly in the first year of the pandemic and remain $86 billion lower than at the end of 2019. Auto loan balances increased by $11 billion in the first quarter. Student loan balances now stand at $1.59 trillion, and increased by $14 billion in the first quarter of 2022. In total, non-housing balances grew by $17 billion, boosted additionally by a $7 billion increase in other balances, which include consumer finance loans, retail cards, and unclassified loans.

 

[eca7891]

• Mortgage balances shown on consumer credit reports increased by $250 billion during the first quarter of 2022 and stood at $11.18 trillion at the end of March. Balances on home equity lines of credit (HELOC) were relatively flat and have been for the past 3 quarters, bucking a declining trend in place since 2016Q4; the outstanding HELOC balance stands at $317 billion. Credit card balances declined by $15 billion, a typical seasonal change. Credit card balances had declined significantly in the first year of the pandemic and remain $86 billion lower than at the end of 2019. Auto loan balances increased by $11 billion in the first quarter. Student loan balances now stand at $1.59 trillion, and increased by $14 billion in the first quarter of 2022. In total, non-housing balances grew by $17 billion, boosted additionally by a $7 billion increase in other balances, which include consumer finance loans, retail cards, and unclassified loans.

None of that is a surprise. I’m more interested in what the next quarters numbers hold.

 

[S3th]

 

[Hobo Hilton]

View attachment 7869525

Lots of theories going around. I think a lot of this decline is the foreign money leaving the USA and going back to it's homeland. Perhaps to build infrastructure, farm land or produce food. JMHO

 

[Graywolf.260]

Lots of theories going around. I think a lot of this decline is the foreign money leaving the USA and going back to it's homeland. Perhaps to build infrastructure, farm land or produce food. JMHO

And the loss of the federal reserve “fed put” that won’t be back as long as inflation stays high.
Paying back the federal debt will be facilitated by this inflation but the deficit needs to come down fast or there will be some worse storms.

 

[S3th]

Tesla

 

[NoDopes]

Tesla
View attachment 7870211

Does that include COGS or just fixed operating costs? If not, this seems pretty misleading. If yes, wow, that's impressive.

 

[S3th]

Does that include COGS or just fixed operating costs? If not, this seems pretty misleading. If yes, wow, that's impressive.

Of course, it excludes COGS... what automotive manufacturer has a gross margin of +90%?

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Tesla
View attachment 7870211

Nice chart.
But those XOM employees / stock holders are sitting pretty compared to the TSLA employees who own stock.
This is a dangerous crossover with the recession getting underway.
XOM did pay a dividend -

5/12/2022

$0.88

Quarter

4.1%

N/A

4/27/2022

5/13/2022

6/10/202

No dividend history for TSLA

Doubtful a recession will play into the hands of the EV world.... The poor's will just hold on to that old beater and feed it low cost 87 octane.
I was wrong once before.....

 

[S3th]

I'll take Tesla every time over Exxon.

 

[eca7891]

I'll take Tesla every time over Exxon.

View attachment 7870239View attachment 7870240View attachment 7870241
View attachment 7870242

How long have both been around?

What is the pe of each?

Tesla ever go through a depression?

 

[S3th]

How long have both been around?

What is the pe of each?

Tesla ever go through a depression?

Tesla started right after the dot com bubble burst... so yes.

PE doesn't mean you think it does...

Anyways, Tesla is far better positioned for a recession and rising rates.

 

[david walter]

Notice Buffet is stocking up on Apple? He says only a fool would bet against Tim Cook.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

With the start of the recession, TSLA is betting the farm on Elon... As mentioned, XOM is holding the commodity (oil / refining) that will pull the world out of a recession... I can not imagine either doing anything different while riding out the recession.

 

[eca7891]

Tesla started right after the dot com bubble burst... so yes.

PE doesn't mean you think it does...

Anyways, Tesla is far better positioned for a recession and rising rates.

EL OH EL

Sure thing.

They started AFTER a dot com which had zero to do with or effect them.

Their price per earning is horrid. It’s an over priced company. They move ev incentives to union only and it will most definitely have a big impact on them.

Recession?? They have never seen one. Btw. I mentioned depression.

 

[S3th]

EL OH EL

Sure thing.

They started AFTER a dot com which had zero to do with or effect them.

Their price per earning is horrid. It’s an over priced company. They move ev incentives to union only and it will most definitely have a big impact on them.

Recession?? They have never seen one. Btw. I mentioned depression.

Yeah, those EV Credits... less than 3% of revenues... it is going to be so damn painful.

 

[eca7891]

I’m still cleaning my screen and keyboard from your last post.

 

[eca7891]

Notice Buffet is stocking up on Apple? He says only a fool would bet against Tim Cook.

But but…..

He should be plowing money into Tesla.

Comparing a company that has been around about 15 years to once that was founded in the 1880’s.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

‘Nowhere to hide?’​

Reassuring

'Nowhere to hide?' What's next as stocks slump toward bear market amid stagflation fears

U.S. stocks enjoyed a big bounce Friday, but it's far from an all-clear for investors looking for signs that a selloff that's put the S&P 500 index on the...

www.marketwatch.com

 

[346ci]

Losing on tesla, glad I didn't buy any Twitter though. I hope he breaks it off in them.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Losing on tesla, glad I didn't buy any Twitter though. I hope he breaks it off in them.

Hindsight is always 20 / 20..... No need to beat yourself up.... It's a tough market here in the USA... Lots of foreign investors are leaving with a black eye. Appearing the DXY is running out of steam. Asian markets did well over night... Those markets may very well lead the world out of the recession. JMHO

 

[Hobo Hilton]

LOL.... One more big, old, heavy hitter shoring up the share price. A sign of things to come. Battening down the hatches.

Shares of Caterpillar Inc. rallied 2.1% in premarket trading Tuesday, after the construction and mining equipment company said its board of directors had recently approved a new $15 billion stock repurchase program.

Caterpillar's stock rallies after disclosure of new $15 billion stock repurchase program

Shares of Caterpillar Inc. undefined rallied 2.1% in premarket trading Tuesday, after the construction and mining equipment company said its board of...

www.marketwatch.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Retail Sales Rise in April as Consumers Keep Spending​

 

[devildog93]

Could that be due to increased prices? At some point consumers will pull back and that number will crater I would think.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Could that be due to increased prices? At some point consumers will pull back and that number will crater I would think.

Of course.... But these kind of morning head lines are nothing but propaganda to keep American's spending:

U.S. industrial output up 1.1% in April vs expectations of a 0.5% gain

Care to dig really deep and find out what the Government is calling "Industrial Output" ?

 

[S3th]

Bear markets are defeated by those
who continue to build regardless of
market conditions.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Bear markets are defeated by those
who continue to build regardless of
market conditions.

The longer the FED Reserve works towards a soft landing............ The more entrenched this Bear will become.
Note CAT's stock buy back this morning. Comment ?

 

[S3th]

The longer the FED Reserve works towards a soft landing............ The more entrenched this Bear will become.
Note CAT's stock buy back this morning. Comment ?

I would need to look at their actual finances to get a better picture, but share buybacks have various methods to determine shareholder return. Each share the company purchases, they are retaining the EPS + Dividend payment. Say that is $20/share and the stock is $200, that would be a 10% return on cash. If their weighted average cost of debt is 6%, why pay down debt? If their ROIC is 8%, why invest in the business the extra $15B; especially if they are not production constrained. Additionally, removing shares boost EPS on a go forward basis.

Also, share repurchase is not mandatory. They can purchase in and out of 10B5-1/10B-18 rules or completely skip a quarter.

 

[346ci]

Hindsight is always 20 / 20..... No need to beat yourself up.... It's a tough market here in the USA... Lots of foreign investors are leaving with a black eye. Appearing the DXY is running out of steam. Asian markets did well over night... Those markets may very well lead the world out of the recession. JMHO

It's all good, I waited too late to play the tesla game but I will hold on for the long run.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

I'll just throw out one of my Dad's sayings. It was quoted at my Dad's funeral by my younger brother, a horse trader.

A man can go broke by taking advantages of a "Good Deal".

 

[Int1968]

 

[Graywolf.260]

I bought TWTR puts again with this spike up.