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- Thread starter pmclaine
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This hedge-fund manager called inflation early. He now says consumer prices will finish 2022 at a level that ‘screams failure by the Fed.’
Inflation has yet to peak and has only gotten worse since 2021, Tim Magnusson, chief investment officer of Garda Capital Partners, tells MarketWatch.
www.marketwatch.com
I enjoy watching a market like this. Senior man on the desk goes to lunch at noon and leaves the Junior man on the desk. The traders were running over him by 1 pm..... Look at that curve from 1 pm until close... He rode that bull into the dirt. This is a BIG concern to the people in the market. A metric shit ton of young traders who never lived through a serious recession... And it shows.
Huh, who woulda thunk?
finance.yahoo.com
Apple, Google, Meta: All of the tech companies hitting the brakes on hiring
Tech companies continue to hit the brakes on hiring against the backdrop of a declining stock market and recession fears.
Snug your seat belt.....Huh, who woulda thunk?
Apple, Google, Meta: All of the tech companies hitting the brakes on hiring
Tech companies continue to hit the brakes on hiring against the backdrop of a declining stock market and recession fears.
Deja Vu........... I was in Hudson and saw this with my own two eyes.......... Here is the date stamp:
March 18, 2001 at 01:01 AM
HUDSON, MA-If anyone out there needs further proof that the high-tech downturn is real they need look no further than this town where a little over a year ago Intel, the giant chip maker, announced it was investing nearly $1 billion into its plant here. This week, the company announced that it was putting the expansion plans on hold.
Intel Halts $1-Bil Plant Expansion Construction | GlobeSt
HUDSON, MA-A little over a year after Intel announced that it would be investing $1 billion to develop a chip-making plant here, the company announces that it is halting construction on part of the project.
www.globest.com
Exxons 8 year return is now zero. They finally have a positive ROR. That the oil business for you. $xom
I wonder how oil & gas companies are going to do as demand from vehicles continue to lessen yoy.
I wonder how oil & gas companies are going to do as demand from vehicles continue to lessen yoy.
I enjoy your perspective, seriously. I just had a friend retire from EXXON (Baton Rouge). He bought all the XOM stock he was allowed to, as an employee... He got in about 30 years there... I don't know the exact number but, he retired with over $1 million in XOM stock. He had talked with financial advisor's over the years and none could beat the return he was getting on his XOM stock. My son now works there and is racking up his retirement. Talked to him yesterday and he could care less what the price of gasoline is. Every hurricane or other disaster XOM fills their employees vehicles so they can get to home and work. He get's the company discount...
Looking like the future of the world depends on Russia and China...
10 year history
Did I ever mention I was raised in BR?I enjoy your perspective, seriously. I just had a friend retire from EXXON (Baton Rouge). He bought all the XOM stock he was allowed to, as an employee... He got in about 30 years there... I don't know the exact number but, he retired with over $1 million in XOM stock. He had talked with financial advisor's over the years and none could beat the return he was getting on his XOM stock. My son now works there and is racking up his retirement. Talked to him yesterday and he could care less what the price of gasoline is. Every hurricane or other disaster XOM fills their employees vehicles so they can get to home and work. He get's the company discount...
Looking like the future of the world depends on Russia and China...
10 year history
No, but it is sometimes obvious.... I figured you had some years in the deep south...
90% percent of vehicles will be ICE for a long time. People keeping cars 12 years or so now. If they stopped selling ICE vehicles tomorrow there will be a huge amount of non-electric to feed. I don't think that windmills and pixie dust will be producing all the chemicals, plastic, etc. that are byproducts of petroleum (natural gas).
Maybe now we are at peak inflation
Even when we come off the peak, it will be unusually high for months to come. One "expert" this morning predicted it may drop to 7% by year end.
If this keeps up, the Fed may eventually be forced to do something.
They will be more hawkish than before... more 50bps hikes than 25 incoming. Doubtful they will do a 75-100bps this month.
I'm amused by all the people who have only recently took notice of "shrinkflation"
Actual inflation is 15-20% or more depending upon your locale and the mix of gods and services that your household consumes. Anyone who ships for their own groceries or pumps their own gas knows that the 7-8% numbers are bullshit. Those are only reference points for people on Wall Street to comprehend as "too high".
The Taylor rule suggests that the target rate will need to end up somewhere north of 9%. At 50 bps per month, that'll take a while.
At this point, the problem is quite obvious - fuck the middle class with inflation, fuck them by crushing the value of their retirement accounts and homes while also putting millions of them out of work, or maybe accomplish both at once. The rate at which rates are adjusted really just establish the slope of the curves for these consequences.
if fed was smart, they'd do 100bps and eat it now vs later. the balance sheet run off could be accelerated and they need to close dollar swap lines with foreign central banks. do it all now
The guy's on the trading desk will earn their money today.... Friday / Terrible CPI / 120+ oil / FED Reserve asleep at the wheel............
Watch them avoid a Black Friday melt down. Perhaps the mega fund managers will help them out after lunch and buy up some of the laggards with the 401k money people have rat holed away....
Blackrock is the chart
Watch them avoid a Black Friday melt down. Perhaps the mega fund managers will help them out after lunch and buy up some of the laggards with the 401k money people have rat holed away....
Blackrock is the chart
Agreed. The Fed already blew its chance at a soft landing by ignoring this problem for so long. Now its best hope is to force everyone to take their medicine in one big gulp (OK, probably more like several gulps between now and the end of the year).
I think at this point, they're just sitting around and hoping that inflation drives enough demand destruction to take care of this problem without going through yo-yo rate hikes and then cuts.
I've always thought the Fed was dumb as I've intimate knowledge of many of the policy makers due to former profession but listening to Yellen say Ukraine caused inflation with Covid supply disruptions, leaving out the most critical aspects of fed policy and m supply initiatives, had me shaking my head like in 07. In 07 I was at lehman conference and heard the st louis fed prez say, 'we believe the mkt participants will self regulate the risk' when asked about ballooning mtg debt on balance sheets. unreal
few people realize we're more levered now than in 08
the Fed has caused this mess and the gov't exacerbated it with nonsense covid restrictions
Me, as I finish my morning meetings: Let's see if the markets baked-in the bad inflation news with yesterday's drop
Me, 30 seconds later:
Me, 30 seconds later:
Agreed on all points.
My wife damn near threw something through the TV last week when a clip played of Yellen saying that she didn't expect inflation:
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen says she was wrong about the risks of inflation
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen tells CNN she was wrong about the trajectory of inflation during interviews a year ago.
www.npr.org
Well, OK, she missed the risks and so did the Fed, but damn near everyone who isn't a +1SD midwit with political motivation to be oblivious saw this coming a couple of years ago.
But we all deserve this since we keep voting for these bozos. Go ahead and vote for whomever the Republicans run in '24; they'll be advised by the same people who convinced Bush and Obama and Trump to run up trillion-dollar yearly deficits and pay for it with Fed "easing".
Dollar cost average dips -- don't just buy some random day because you have some cash.
I rarely buy the market until the market dives because otherwise there's not enough return (except for 401K which I can't control that way).
I'm also heavily focused on dividend-yielding stocks.
Luxury goods companies in the tank are not bad ideas -- once the economy stabilizes and improves those will spike.
All my opinion. Don't recommend thinking I'm providing financial advise.
I rarely buy the market until the market dives because otherwise there's not enough return (except for 401K which I can't control that way).
I'm also heavily focused on dividend-yielding stocks.
Luxury goods companies in the tank are not bad ideas -- once the economy stabilizes and improves those will spike.
All my opinion. Don't recommend thinking I'm providing financial advise.
A Friday at close.... Of the Dow 30, 29 were down... The only one up in the Dow was Walmart. Deja Vu. Walmart was up in 2008 during the "Great Recession".
global reits is the play hereA Friday at close.... Of the Dow 30, 29 were down... The only one up in the Dow was Walmart. Deja Vu. Walmart was up in 2008 during the "Great Recession".
This makes 10 out of the past 11 weeks down on the DJIA, when is the last time that happened?
That’s why I never short Walmart. I short the fake upper class stores like Target. Once all the instagram moms are broke as fuck, they shop at a Walmart.A Friday at close.... Of the Dow 30, 29 were down... The only one up in the Dow was Walmart. Deja Vu. Walmart was up in 2008 during the "Great Recession".
Fast food also did very well during the Great Recession because you could still afford a meal there, even when broke as fuck. I don’t think that’ll be the case this time around since a value meal is now over $10. Hopefully that fake chicken selling place goes belly up and wipes that abomination off of the earth.
I’m also starting to scale into shorting oil. Made a lot of money buying oil and producers in 2020. Keeping them because of dividends, but looking at shorting futures and scale into DRIP and SCO.
I’m also shorting Ford and GM. Sold off my Ford at $20 and went short at $23 in January. Will cover around $10-$11 because I see their sales dropping, and I don’t see $60,000 electrical trucks saving them. I short GM just because they deserve it. Sold their stock off at $52 on the way up, and went short at $50 on the way down in January when gas went into the mid $3’s.
I’ve got a few more things going on.
GS Econ believe Brent prices need to rally to $140/bbl this Summer to precipitate the magnitude of demand-destruction needed to balance the oil market. In recent months, oil markets have been hit by a "triple whammy": i) Largest SPR release in history; ii) The world's 2nd largest oil-consumer (~13% of demand) locking their economy down; and iii) 'Shoulder-season', between Winter and Summer, when demand is at its weakest…….. and yet prices did not pull back much below $100/bbl, which signals considerable upside to prices as China comes back on-line and Summer demand-season ramps up.
That’s why I’m scaling in on my oil short, because I can definitely believe more upside is coming. We can see $140, but I believe the demand destruction is going to happen a lot faster than predicted.
The ability to continue to buy gas will break.
I saw it when we went through this last time.
All the sudden everyone was on the side of the road out of gas.
Each of those cars typically had a few packages of crumpled empty cigarette packs on the passenger floor board though.
Peeps will put $5 in the tank and buy the $12 pack of cigarettes and think its good.
Gas will be one of the first things to stop buying if having to choose between cigs and scratch tickets.
Who needs a car to get to work if Uncle Sam will give you subsistence to have a lowest common denominator life and you can still have enough for lung darts and dreams of winning the lottery?
This is what I’m planning for. I also expect the cost of real necessities to factor in here in demand destruction of oil too.
Look at lumber and it’s death in the last 3 months. Everyone is shocked, because they’re retarded.
I believe the same will happen with oil.
Only thing my crystal ball can’t see is reduced refining capacity due to storms, sabotage, etc.
I’m still short Target and other companies that I consider to be middle class flex stores. All their customers will go to Walmart.
I’ve been short cruise lines since last year and recently covered my CCL short this week, but will continue to hold my shorts on RCL and NCLH.
I am not short housing either, due to demand from institutional investors. I believe there will be a housing price drop, but I’m more interested in adding some properties instead of trying to short it down. I have my eye on a few neighborhoods I’d like to buy in, and I’m already seeing price reductions.
I am not short the S&P 500, and continue to add twice monthly. Same for Apple and Microsoft. Haven’t added much Tesla since a couple months after their split.
If it was possible, I’d short Christmas.
I posted over in the "Downfall of America" about food pantries at schools. The same people who pay for cigarette's, IPhone's, Streaming TV are the one's sending their kids to school hungry. Why ?
Parents will have to start paying for school lunches and student loans again soon.
We can only hope. A society where people are pulling their weight would be nice. I am not against helping those that can't help themselves, but I am all for ejecting those that can and won't pull their load.
Here invest in these.....
Because I am not wearing a uniform anymore I actually have to dress myself.
My favorite pair of pants is a set of WWII USMC khakis - lots of ball room - like being naked in pants. A pocket pool players dream - the hot chick you are talking to would never suspect.
I cant believe I found a set of 34 waist pants which in WWII time would be morbidly obese.
Buy the relaxed pants for comfort while doing woodwork. The poplins allow airconditioning like breezes to flow past the fellas. They have that 1940s rise on them from when men would wear their pants at their nipples. That translates into wasted ball capacity in my case but increased comfort.
Made in the USA - Fuck China.
If you order them with an open hem when they send you your confirm reply back to the confirmation with your custom hem lengths or any other requests - they will make them in any fit or length you request.
Did I mention Made in USA?
They will likely have a coupon code for 4 July. I saved 15% on Memorial Day.
All American Khakis | All American Khakis
www.allamericankhakis.com
Because I am not wearing a uniform anymore I actually have to dress myself.
My favorite pair of pants is a set of WWII USMC khakis - lots of ball room - like being naked in pants. A pocket pool players dream - the hot chick you are talking to would never suspect.
I cant believe I found a set of 34 waist pants which in WWII time would be morbidly obese.
Buy the relaxed pants for comfort while doing woodwork. The poplins allow airconditioning like breezes to flow past the fellas. They have that 1940s rise on them from when men would wear their pants at their nipples. That translates into wasted ball capacity in my case but increased comfort.
Made in the USA - Fuck China.
If you order them with an open hem when they send you your confirm reply back to the confirmation with your custom hem lengths or any other requests - they will make them in any fit or length you request.
Did I mention Made in USA?
They will likely have a coupon code for 4 July. I saved 15% on Memorial Day.
American made, quality materials, and plenty of nutsack room? Sold!!
This is why I mentioned (MO) would be a good play now after the 10% hit it took.
No fore and aft creases though.
Wearing casual pants with creases might as well grease pencil the following on your forehead....."I suck dicks as sport!".
Iron those fuckers flat and channel these bad motherfuckers...
A long commentary with sobering thoughts and a dose of reality about the future.
_____________________
No mincing words; no need for sophisticated prose. The week was ugly. Things look bad. There are elements similar to the year 2000 bursting of the “Dot-com” Bubble. There are parallels to the much more systemic 2008 mortgage finance Bubble collapse. Yet, for me, this week rekindled more distant memories.
creditbubblebulletin.blogspot.com
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Saturday, June 11, 2022
Weekly Commentary: Breaking and the Q1 2022 Z.1
No mincing words; no need for sophisticated prose. The week was ugly. Things look bad. There are elements similar to the year 2000 bursting of the “Dot-com” Bubble. There are parallels to the much more systemic 2008 mortgage finance Bubble collapse. Yet, for me, this week rekindled more distant memories.
Weekly Commentary: Breaking and the Q1 2022 Z.1
No mincing words; no need for sophisticated prose. The week was ugly. Things look bad. There are elements similar to the year 2000 burstin...
creditbubblebulletin.blogspot.com
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Elon reportedly said: “I’d like to congratulate the Fremont team for achieving an all-time record production day last week and Berlin for making almost 1000 cars last week! This is great stuff. Shanghai is returning to full strength & Austin is spooling up. Onward to victory!!”
Maybe we could trade Biden for Elon........... America would appreciate it.
