The Fed jumps it another .5%

[Maggot]

This is going to impact an already cooling housing market.

Fed raises rates by half a point | LinkedIn​

https://www.linkedin.com › news › story › fed-raises-rates...



16 minutes ago — The Fed raised rates by 0.50% today, targeting a range between 4.25% and 4.50%. This was widely expected, so it was not the most important data ...

 

[Crewdog135]

Bubble is going to burst. Those HELOCs are gonna walk just like 08. And as someone that's been looking to relocate for a couple years, the market has been totally ridiculous.

 

[Cowpokey]

Bubble is going to burst. Those HELOCs are gonna walk just like 08. And as someone that's been looking to relocate for a couple years, the market has been totally ridiculous.

Yep, guys I worked with back prior to '08 burst were all taking out equity loans for vacations and swimming pools. I knew they were all stupid, but who was I to say, as a "dumbass living in base housing".

 

[Maggot]

Yep, guys I worked with back prior to '08 burst were all taking out equity loans for vacations and swimming pools. I knew they were all stupid, but who was I to say, as a "dumbass living in base housing".

Once the home is paid for you dont touch it...until you have another one.

I saw the same thing. Buddy of mine bought a 350K house for 450K. They offered him an extra 'free' 100K for furniture, a new car, a vacation, what ever you want. He took it. 6 months later the house was worth 300K, the 'free' 100K was long gone, and he was 250K underwater.

 

[Maggot]

Bubble is going to burst. Those HELOCs are gonna walk just like 08. And as someone that's been looking to relocate for a couple years, the market has been totally ridiculous.

Be patient.

 

[Shooter McGavin]

Lots of people going to be under water on their homes

This chart shows where US housing market prices are dropping the most

The drop is the result of a marked increase in interest rates and constant quality home price appreciation, also called HPA, since January 2020.

www.10news.com

 

[Crewdog135]

Be patient.

That's the beauty of my situation, really. I WANT to move but don't HAVE to. I've been watching a 65 acre tract for a while. Might go down the build road when the price gets right. Figure there's going to be plenty of builders needing work here soon.

 

[aslrookie]

I was uneasy buying my first home during the big housing market boom. However, I got lucky and bought a 2bdrm/2ba house that essentially has 2 master bedrooms because they tore down the wall for the 3rd. So I bought the house without having to engage in a bidding war.

My house was bought for 300k on a 3% interest rate. The city is growing with developments all over the place, so I was confident that it was a solid purchase regardless of whatever else happens with the economy.

At the end of the day, the house would have to lose a shit ton of value in order for me to be upside down compared to paying $100k less initially but then double the interest rate.

The only people that will truly capitalize on this market are those with enough cash to buy properties outright from those who were dumb enough to pull from their 401k and pay cash ontop of what the banks said the loan value is worth.

The secondary beneficiaries are those who made a killing selling their overpriced homes, moved somewhere cheaper, got double the value of their previous home and have the lowest interest rates seen.

 

[tucaz]

wasnt there some headline on monday that said the fed was NOT going to hike and the markets were off to the moon?

seems like it as a CNBC thing.

 

[Maggot]

wasnt there some headline on monday that said the fed was NOT going to hike and the markets were off to the moon?

seems like it as a CNBC thing.

What I heard is that they will likely jump it another .75% at least.

 

[Cowpokey]

What I heard is that they will likely jump it another .75% at least.

Glad my mortgage has been locked in for 30 years since 2015. Haven't financed anything new in over a year, and I did that at 1.89%.

 

[chevy_man]

Think I can get my property taxes down because of a loss in value?

I mean, my neighbor just sold a house half the size of mine with no garage for $300k, but the city thinks mine is worth 200k. Maybe if it really is only worth 200k they'll cut the taxes down to $100k value?


My farm was kinda forced into a sale. As 1/3 owner to a place 800 miles away, I'm not fighting the family. I'm taking my share and buying up a couple rental properties in 2-3 years. Figure if I can roll that into 5-8 rentals paid off in the next 20 years I can retire pretty comfortably.


Hell, I'll probably need to finance my kids buying houses. They'll never be able to afford them otherwise.

 

[Short-bus]

Sure am glad I got in my current house for $310K and 3.375%. According zillow my house is worth $457K now, which seems low since the neighbors house was "only" worth $350K on zillow when they listed it....for $550K, and it sold quick.

Wife and I have the attitude that we're going to be in this house a very long time. As long as the outside world doesn't start to encroach, we'll be fine here.

Branden

 

[SilentStalkr]

Sure am glad I got in my current house for $310K and 3.375%. According zillow my house is worth $457K now, which seems low since the neighbors house was "only" worth $350K on zillow when they listed it....for $550K, and it sold quick.

Wife and I have the attitude that we're going to be in this house a very long time. As long as the outside world doesn't start to encroach, we'll be fine here.

Branden

You can’t go by crap like that. Zillow is 90% wrong most of the time.

 

[Maggot]

Think I can get my property taxes down because of a loss in value?

I mean, my neighbor just sold a house half the size of mine with no garage for $300k, but the city thinks mine is worth 200k. Maybe if it really is only worth 200k they'll cut the taxes down to $100k value?


My farm was kinda forced into a sale. As 1/3 owner to a place 800 miles away, I'm not fighting the family. I'm taking my share and buying up a couple rental properties in 2-3 years. Figure if I can roll that into 5-8 rentals paid off in the next 20 years I can retire pretty comfortably.


Hell, I'll probably need to finance my kids buying houses. They'll never be able to afford them otherwise.

Rentals arent as attractive as they can appear. All it takes is one "Im fucked by Covid" .....

 

[Cowpokey]

Sure am glad I got in my current house for $310K and 3.375%. According zillow my house is worth $457K now, which seems low since the neighbors house was "only" worth $350K on zillow when they listed it....for $550K, and it sold quick.

Wife and I have the attitude that we're going to be in this house a very long time. As long as the outside world doesn't start to encroach, we'll be fine here.

Branden

We "paid" $435k in August 2015, Zillow says it's "worth" $630k now. It's all bullshit, they want us to take out equity loans...that isn't gonna happen, for me anyway. They can fuck off.

 

[Short-bus]

We "paid" $435k in August 2015, Zillow says it's "worth" $630k now. It's all bullshit, they want us to take out equity loans...that isn't gonna happen, for me anyway. They can fuck off.

We were going to take out a heloc to do some major purchases (shed, mower, thermals, night vision, you know, the usual), but at 8%, I wasn't willing to pay that interest rate. I found a mower that they were offering 0% for 36 months, can't beat that. Now I need a shed for storage of my mower, my gokart, and a bunch of stuff in the shop that doesn't need to be in the shop. Odds are, i'm going to end up building the shed myself to save a chunk of money, as well as gain points for upgrading the man card to a gold card.

Branden

 

[E. Bryant]

wasnt there some headline on monday that said the fed was NOT going to hike and the markets were off to the moon?

seems like it as a CNBC thing.

Yes - there is a group of clowns who are heavily invested in the all-things-to-the-moon -forever-and-ever thesis, and they think that JPow and the Fed will "pivot" any day now. They did the same thing to the stock market before the last Fed meeting. The delicious irony is that this is exactly the sort of behavior that will keep rates rising. Eventually, the bozos will capitulate.

 

[nso123]

I am watching the real estate around my area sit for sale now. For a good while anything that was listed sold within hours or days, even when the prices were completely stupid. I can’t imagine that another crash isn’t on the horizon. The good thing is that there is opportunity in chaos.

 

[OldSalty2]

We "paid" $435k in August 2015, Zillow says it's "worth" $630k now. It's all bullshit, they want us to take out equity loans...that isn't gonna happen, for me anyway. They can fuck off.

It might be bullshit but those who bought at that time paid the 630k. If that were me I'd be doing a close examination of my expenses and trying to save anyway I can. Because if a "correction" occurs, and hits hard, millions will be on that boat.

I literally get at least one call / day asking if I want to sell my house...wonder why?

 

[BuildingConceptsllc]

That's the beauty of my situation, really. I WANT to move but don't HAVE to. I've been watching a 65 acre tract for a while. Might go down the build road when the price gets right. Figure there's going to be plenty of builders needing work here soon.

It's not the builder needing work that effects the price very much though, it's the cost of materials and labor. That isn't going down with gas this high and inflation. It may not continue to go up, but without materials and labor going down, the price just can't move much as a whole. Of course if there's a big crash that effectively resets all of that pricing, then it may change some, but most folks aren't going to be in a position where they are comfortable building in such conditions either.

 

[LilGucci]

In the Portland area and I can't afford a home. There's so much land here in Oregon but they only allow development within the artificial "Urban Growth Boundary." So no building or expanding home building outside of that, so it is urbanizing the suburbs and driving up prices. Add to that all the rich democrats moving here to retire (We're the Florida for Democrats, Oregon has a large aging population), and you can't find decent homes under half a million. Even if there is a crash in home prices, the area in the Portland Metropolitan will still be in high demand, especially the suburbs. So I'll be a renter until I find me a nice piece of land out in the country, or Idaho/Utah.

 

[BuildingConceptsllc]

In the Portland area and I can't afford a home. There's so much land here in Oregon but they only allow development within the artificial "Urban Growth Boundary." So no building or expanding home building outside of that, so it is urbanizing the suburbs and driving up prices. Add to that all the rich democrats moving here to retire (We're the Florida for Democrats, Oregon has a large aging population), and you can't find decent homes under half a million. Even if there is a crash in home prices, the area in the Portland Metropolitan will still be in high demand, especially the suburbs. So I'll be a renter until I find me a nice piece of land out in the country, or Idaho/Utah.

There's that, and there's a bunch of NE and NW folks moving to the SE causing the same issue. Then there is the MASSIVE shortage, which is a result of the crash (the last time the govt forces loans to people who couldn't afford it), and the Obama years that followed. Very little was developed and built in that 8 years, then in areas like yours and all of Cali, ect, the permitting process is so arduous and ridiculously long, it makes it nearly impossible to build at all.

Couple it all together and you have a MASSIVE shortage in overall housing (this is why the hedge fund guys have been buying them, knowing they are buying them at high prices).

It could turn out to be a factor that helps us get through the disaster that the govt has deliberately forced us all into, but , no one really knows how this will all work out, because this isn't like 08, nor any other time. If we had a potus like Trump again who would get ENERGY COST DOWN , we'd be able to deal with a good bit of even the absolutely insane spending and printing they've done and will keep doing. Energy is by far the most important thing in this country and we have HUGE HUGE amounts of it for hundreds of years, yet here we are......

 

[Short-bus]

The only reason I have a hard time thinking a crash, or correction is coming, is because there are still very large investment firms that are buying up single family homes left and right, paying over, and paying cash with 7 day closings. These companies I think have bought up enough to keep demand artificially high, driving up prices. I wonder if they have enough holdings to keep the demand at a sustainable enough point to keep the crash from happening. Hold onto the properties until the economy turns back on the upswing, and then start to slowly unload the properties with the massive gains they created. That's just a theory of mine though.

Branden

 

[nso123]

The only reason I have a hard time thinking a crash, or correction is coming, is because there are still very large investment firms that are buying up single family homes left and right, paying over, and paying cash with 7 day closings. These companies I think have bought up enough to keep demand artificially high, driving up prices. I wonder if they have enough holdings to keep the demand at a sustainable enough point to keep the crash from happening. Hold onto the properties until the economy turns back on the upswing, and then start to slowly unload the properties with the massive gains they created. That's just a theory of mine though.

Branden

I tend to think they are buying because they know there is a shift from ownership to rental happening. Interest rates are going to be high for a while, and as the Fed keeps tightening we are going to see the regular person avoid high mortgage payments. To me, this points toward an increased demand for rentals.

 

[Bigfatcock]

The only reason I have a hard time thinking a crash, or correction is coming, is because there are still very large investment firms that are buying up single family homes left and right, paying over, and paying cash with 7 day closings. These companies I think have bought up enough to keep demand artificially high, driving up prices. I wonder if they have enough holdings to keep the demand at a sustainable enough point to keep the crash from happening. Hold onto the properties until the economy turns back on the upswing, and then start to slowly unload the properties with the massive gains they created. That's just a theory of mine though.

Branden

Yield.

 

[SilentStalkr]

I tend to think they are buying because they know there is a shift from ownership to rental happening. Interest rates are going to be high for a while, and as the Fed keeps tightening we are going to see the regular person avoid high mortgage payments. To me, this points toward an increased demand for rentals.

You will own nothing and be happy serving your masters. Say something or do something they don’t agree with? Congrats no more house rental for you and when it gets to that point, even if you can find something to buy you won’t be able to afford it. Control. It’s all about control. Control a mans food, water, money and housing then you control it all.

 

[BuildingConceptsllc]

You will own nothing and be happy serving your masters. Say something or do something they don’t agree with? Congrats no more house rental for you and when it gets to that point, even if you can find something to buy you won’t be able to afford it. Control. It’s all about control. Control a mans food, water, money and housing then you control it all.

Don't forget medicine.

 

[LilGucci]

If we had a potus like Trump again who would get ENERGY COST DOWN , we'd be able to deal with a good bit of even the absolutely insane spending and printing they've done and will keep doing. Energy is by far the most important thing in this country and we have HUGE HUGE amounts of it for hundreds of years, yet here we are......

Energy is actually one of the biggest animating factors in who I vote for. I've been easy on Biden on a lot of things, but when it comes to spending and energy, that's where I'm most disappointed with the current administration. Energy is so critical to productivity and a decent standard of living.

 

[LilGucci]

The U.S. Is Running Short of Land for Housing

Land-use restrictions and lack of infrastructure have made it harder for developers to find sites to build homes; “almost across the board, you’re fighting for land.”

www.wsj.com

 

[chevy_man]

Rentals arent as attractive as they can appear. All it takes is one "Im fucked by Covid" .....

Having more than 1 or 2 turns into a regular job. I'll give you that.

Living in a small community of about 5000, it's pretty easy to find good people that will pay their bills. It's also good to be in the trades, and know the shop owners who will willingly share their blacklisted clients as well.

State laws here are fairly lenient to the renter, but I've seen enough creative ways around it in contracts being a renter myself for years.



Or for full on stupidity I could buy a trailer park. I just need a decent old semi to hook on and evict their whole trailer!

 

[aslrookie]

Having more than 1 or 2 turns into a regular job. I'll give you that.

Living in a small community of about 5000, it's pretty easy to find good people that will pay their bills. It's also good to be in the trades, and know the shop owners who will willingly share their blacklisted clients as well.

State laws here are fairly lenient to the renter, but I've seen enough creative ways around it in contracts being a renter myself for years.



Or for full on stupidity I could buy a trailer park. I just need a decent old semi to hook on and evict their whole trailer!

Lol “oh you don’t wanna follow this eviction notice?” (Pulls trailer off property into the ditch) looks like you’re the governments problem now.

 

[Maggot]

Lol “oh you don’t wanna follow this eviction notice?” (Pulls trailer off property into the ditch) looks like you’re the governments problem now.

"Oh, no, Im not evicting you, I'm just relocating this unit."

 

[CE1371]

Im holding out for the niche group of owners who just want to walk away from their home. Hopefully be able to slide in, take over their payments, and assume the loan and the deed. Then rent short and mid-term. Vrbo, airbnb, and the like. People are still paying for that sort of thing - even when the economy tanks they’ll still consider a “staycation.”

 

[clcustom1911]

Crash that mother fucker. I need more houses.

 

[clcustom1911]

Im holding out for the niche group of owners who just want to walk away from their home. Hopefully be able to slide in, take over their payments, and assume the loan and the deed. Then rent short and mid-term. Vrbo, airbnb, and the like. People are still paying for that sort of thing - even when the economy tanks they’ll still consider a “staycation.”

Yup. STR's is my main 5-10 year plan.

 

[tucaz]

What I heard is that they will likely jump it another .75% at least.

oh ya that, thats been the norm with the fed this year but i swear CNBC floated some article early on monday that the fed was going to pause hikes because the CPI cooled.

then the markets popped 500 points that morning. i must have been having a lucid dream state that morning. lol

not that i give a shit because i am not in this rigged game right now and in fact, would love to see their house of cards fall.

 

[Maggot]

oh ya that, thats been the norm with the fed this year but i swear CNBC floated some article early on monday that the fed was going to pause hikes because the CPI cooled.

then the markets popped 500 points that morning. i must have been having a lucid dream state that morning. lol

not that i give a shit because i am not in this rigged game right now and in fact, would love to see their house of cards fall.

Trouble is, that house of cards is like a line of dominoes. Start the line tipping and everybody gets hit sooner or later. I dont need any more fucking hits.

 

[OldSalty2]

Trouble is, that house of cards is like a line of dominoes. Start the line tipping and everybody except politicians and string pullers get hit sooner or later. I dont need any more fucking hits.

Fify.

 

[Maggot]

Fify.

I reckon youre including bankers' under string pullers.

 

[Cowpokey]

Energy is actually one of the biggest animating factors in who I vote for. I've been easy on Biden on a lot of things, but when it comes to spending and energy, that's where I'm most disappointed with the current administration. Energy is so critical to productivity and a decent standard of living.

So, do you regret voting for Biden yet? How much worse does it have to get before you admit it was better with Trump in office?

 

[redneckbmxer24]

I don't feel bad at all for all the morons that bought houses for ridiculous prices the last couple years. If they couldn't see this coming and their own actions driving it that's their own problem so let them be upside down in a house.

The GF and I were ready to move and get a place together and said no way to the market and interest rates. We ended up buying a very nice two year old fifth wheel to travel instead for a hell of a deal and it's been awesome. Now we'll buy someones foreclosed property for a hell of a deal when the market crashes.

 

[Broncovan]

In the Portland area and I can't afford a home. There's so much land here in Oregon but they only allow development within the artificial "Urban Growth Boundary." So no building or expanding home building outside of that, so it is urbanizing the suburbs and driving up prices. Add to that all the rich democrats moving here to retire (We're the Florida for Democrats, Oregon has a large aging population), and you can't find decent homes under half a million. Even if there is a crash in home prices, the area in the Portland Metropolitan will still be in high demand, especially the suburbs. So I'll be a renter until I find me a nice piece of land out in the country, or Idaho/Utah.

I hear Utah is nice.

 

[timesublime]

I hear Utah is nice.

Minus the cult and their repressive laws.

 

[Shooter McGavin]

In the Portland area and I can't afford a home. There's so much land here in Oregon but they only allow development within the artificial "Urban Growth Boundary." So no building or expanding home building outside of that, so it is urbanizing the suburbs and driving up prices. Add to that all the rich democrats moving here to retire (We're the Florida for Democrats, Oregon has a large aging population), and you can't find decent homes under half a million. Even if there is a crash in home prices, the area in the Portland Metropolitan will still be in high demand, especially the suburbs. So I'll be a renter until I find me a nice piece of land out in the country, or Idaho/Utah.

In my small town in NTX, CA people are coming in large numbers. I have no idea why they would want to move here as we have no amenities or jobs. About 10 years ago, maybe a little more, you could buy a house here for $150,000. Those times have past. I was looking at a new development and those homes are starting in the Mid $400,000. Just a few years ago there was a development that started on the Mid $300,000. There is a larger development with plans for shopping and restaurants, those homes are starting in the Mid $500,000. The other development I was looking at had two homes left. One for $1.5 million and the other $1.7 million. These home aren't 6000 sq ft homes either they are both under 3500 sq ft. It's nuts. The people who grew up here can't afford to buy a home here anymore.

There is a great resentment towards CA people and they have changed this little town for the worst; they have no idea that they ruined it. So, fuck them!

 

[Broncovan]

Minus the cult and their repressive laws.

Those are extra features you get for free. It's a bonus.

 

[LilGucci]

So, do you regret voting for Biden yet? How much worse does it have to get before you admit it was better with Trump in office?

I don’t like either but I would prefer Trump. He was the most conservative president since Ronald Reagan. I hope Desantis runs because it would be Trump without the baggage.

 

[Cowpokey]

I don’t like either but I would prefer Trump. He was the most conservative president since Ronald Reagan. I hope Desantis runs because it would be Trump without the baggage.

You didn't answer my first question.

 

[LilGucci]

In my small town in NTX, CA people are coming in large numbers. I have no idea why they would want to move here as we have no amenities or jobs. About 10 years ago, maybe a little more, you could buy a house here for $150,000. Those times have past. I was looking at a new development and those homes are starting in the Mid $400,000. Just a few years ago there was a development that started on the Mid $300,000. There is a larger development with plans for shopping and restaurants, those homes are starting in the Mid $500,000. The other development I was looking at had two homes left. One for $1.5 million and the other $1.7 million. These home aren't 6000 sq ft homes either they are both under 3500 sq ft. It's nuts. The people who grew up here can't afford to buy a home here anymore.

There is a great resentment towards CA people and they have changed this little town for the worst; they have no idea that they ruined it. So, fuck them!

They bring their Californian values with them. Democrats are mostly Godless so there is no afterlife waiting for them so they move to wherever they can find heaven on earth, especially rich democrats. That is why Oregon, Washington, California, and Colorado are such hot destinations for rich democrats. Beautiful States that used to be moderate are now solidly blue.

 

[LilGucci]

You didn't answer my first question.

It was better with Trump in office. It was the best presidency since Ronald Reagan, who was president before I was even born, or Bill Clinton, the last Democrat president I liked.