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The Fed jumps it another .5%
- Thread starter Maggot
- Start date
I love Utah, half of my family live there. I love the mountains and the overlanding/off-roading in the summer and skiing in the winter.
It was a pretty obvious question, not much beating around the bush. Since you say you didn’t vote for Biden, I’ll just take that to mean you didn’t vote at all.
No I voted for Trump. There was too much at stake to let the democrats win. I’ve always thought of Biden as a moderate but I couldn’t trust the people around him or the direction the democrats are heading in.
I used to do a lot of cell tower work in UT. Made it a point to spend as little as possible in the state. The cult has it's greedy hands in everything. Involuntary tithing.
85%+ of homeowners are locked into mortgage rates below 5% as of today. They aren't moving anytime soon due to the higher interest rates and affordability constraints. That means less inventory.
There is an existing housing shortage from the 2008 recession. Builders haven't caught back up, and are currently canceling many of the more affordable builds due to cancelations, increased costs, interest rates and economic uncertainty. This means less houses are being built, with a current 2-6 million home shortage. (depending on what source you are reading)
If you bought a house anytime pre-pandemic, chances are your home is still worth more than you paid for it. I don't see them becoming distressed in high numbers, as most of these people had to actually qualify for their loans. The only people I see being upside down are those that bought during the pandemic rush or those that bought in less desireable areas. Don't think there aren't sharks waiting in the water for those people that made poor financial decisions. Some of those sharks have very deep pockets and are thinking about the long term investment.
The cost to build a new home is really expensive. Materials seemed to have stopped climbing finally, but any sort of skilled labor now is outrageous. Not only is labor more expensive, there isn't enough of it to go around and jobs are now taking longer to complete. Between waiting on on crews or material availability, days can turn into weeks. For instance, try to find a 400 amp meter can for a house. You can't. They are selling on eBay for $2-3k when they used to cost maybe $400. Little stuff like that all over adds up quickly and keeps the price of new construction high.
I have a spec house I'm finishing up in Jan, so I'm not far away from finding out where the market really is. At the moment, I'm not too worried. The area I am in and the customer who I'm trying to target may keep me somewhat insulated to the current market conditions. But we are only one dumb move away from being pushed over that edge IMO.
There is an existing housing shortage from the 2008 recession. Builders haven't caught back up, and are currently canceling many of the more affordable builds due to cancelations, increased costs, interest rates and economic uncertainty. This means less houses are being built, with a current 2-6 million home shortage. (depending on what source you are reading)
If you bought a house anytime pre-pandemic, chances are your home is still worth more than you paid for it. I don't see them becoming distressed in high numbers, as most of these people had to actually qualify for their loans. The only people I see being upside down are those that bought during the pandemic rush or those that bought in less desireable areas. Don't think there aren't sharks waiting in the water for those people that made poor financial decisions. Some of those sharks have very deep pockets and are thinking about the long term investment.
The cost to build a new home is really expensive. Materials seemed to have stopped climbing finally, but any sort of skilled labor now is outrageous. Not only is labor more expensive, there isn't enough of it to go around and jobs are now taking longer to complete. Between waiting on on crews or material availability, days can turn into weeks. For instance, try to find a 400 amp meter can for a house. You can't. They are selling on eBay for $2-3k when they used to cost maybe $400. Little stuff like that all over adds up quickly and keeps the price of new construction high.
I have a spec house I'm finishing up in Jan, so I'm not far away from finding out where the market really is. At the moment, I'm not too worried. The area I am in and the customer who I'm trying to target may keep me somewhat insulated to the current market conditions. But we are only one dumb move away from being pushed over that edge IMO.
How bad of shape do those people leave the houses in when they get kicked out?
Shit usually starts after about 3 missed payments.
Great post!
Where I live, the housing shortage will last 2-5 years from what we are hearing....
Any homes that are currently on the market, and are overpriced, will drop in price to sell
I know I sound like Captian Obvious here, but there is a huge shortage of available housing in many parts of the country.
Which in turn will keep home sales chuggin down the tracks for a while.
Plus, all the Retirement/Investment/Inheritance money out there is staggering...and many younger families/people cannot compete with that kind of cash
Interesting that housing shortage seems to coincide with the Fed keeping interest rates artificially low for more than a decade, thus encouraging the building of fewer but larger and more expensive homes. I don't know how long it will take to unfuck this mess - maybe a decade or longer? Regardless of the calendar time required, it'll be one of the largest mis-allocations of capital in world history.
Really crazy, but where I am in Tampa it's still off the rails building like crazy and sold b/f finished. Spec, custom you name it. A 34 year old townhome just sold for $482sq ft at end of block. Another tear down of a beautiful historic home for a new build about 2 blocks from here demo was this week. The demand in FL is still unhinged as more blue staters come here in droves. Hoping I can retire and push up daisies b/f the libtards ruin it like everywhere else they infest.
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This is what I'm seeing in the east coast as well.
Despite so many people moving from blue states, FL is registering more Republicans and less democrats. Look at the trend starting to happen over the last three years. Let's hope is continues. I think people moving here are smart enough to realize that the reason they want to be here, is because it's not like it is there.
Boy that is great to see. I live in the I4 corridor which is primarily blue douche. Hope the ones coming here have seen the reality of their progressive 'utopias' they are leaving behind.
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Same thought with my kid. He is renting a house in town now at the tune of $1800 a month.
They want to be out in the sticks where the boy and his new wife grew up, prices have not started to do much, but now houses are sitting.....and sitting.....and sitting.
Az has had a huge influx of out of staters too, cali, texas, ohio...
we have more registered republicans than dems but its the independents here that gave us Shitty Hobbs for gov last month...f^ck!!...that and dominion too i suppose.
we have more registered republicans than dems but its the independents here that gave us Shitty Hobbs for gov last month...f^ck!!...that and dominion too i suppose.
'Supply problem' making housing unaffordable, says expert
https://biz.crast.net › supply-problem-making-housing-...4 hours ago — “We have a supply problem with housing,” Mark Norman, associate dean of the NYU Schack Institute of Real Estate, told Yahoo Finance Live (video ...
This same thing happened in Coeur d’Alene, ID around the turn of the century. I lived there at the time and thought it was ridiculous. It really got ramped up after they started having full Ironman competitions in the summer which drew large crowds from the despicable state of California. They started moving in by the droves driving housing costs up well beyond reasonable, despite the area lacking in jobs and amenities. They swarmed like locus devouring every piece of land they could get between CDA and the boarder of Canada. Schweitzer ski resort is currently building employee housing so people that work at the resort can actually live near by since they certainly can’t afford to buy nor rent anywhere near Sandpoint.
Yep, and they ruin it by making it just like the place they left; then they move on and destroy another place. Conservative, not yet ruined states, like Texas, need laws that require people moving from liberal states to post a bond of $100,000 per family member with requirements that they must vote conservative in every election for the first 20 years they reside in the conservative state and if they ever are caught voting democrat, their assets and property will be seized, the bonds forfeited, and they will be hauled to the nearest state line with nothing but the clothes on their backs and dumped off. If they make it 20 years voting conservative, they get their money back, but not with interest; the state gets the interest. Either that, or we need a federal law preventing people from the cesspool states from moving out of state unless they can prove a record of voting against the collective psychosis of liberalism; they created the mess, let them live in it.
I will add that looking through the ranks of republican law makers these days, most of them are Godless as well especially in the way they live, they just haven’t yet gone full retard and left the Judeao-Christian morals they were raised with quite yet like apparently every democratic politician and their voting base has.
One last thing. I believe there is an afterlife waiting for them despite their verbal or functional non-belief in such a thing and their obvious desires to create such a self defined utopia on earth; sadly its going to be not such a good surprise if they don’t figure out the truth prior to their departure from this earth.
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Everything you say is accurate, just don't forget the scarcity of buildable land. You have states with tons of land but much of it is zoned in ways that make it difficult to build new cities or add onto existing crowded ones.
well said. When I was speaking about the Left, I was speaking from their perspective of there being no messiah coming to save them (so we should be our own messiah's), and no afterlife after death (so this life is the lifetime that matters, heaven-on-earth, etc). But I think you know already know this haha. I do agree, they are in for a rude awakening when they meet their maker.
Damn, boy, ya skeert me when you said you lived in Id. at the turn of the century. I still think of the turn of the century as 1900. I was born in the first half of the 20th.
CDA idaho was a hick town when i was growing up in spokane in the 70’s-80’s. i left in 1986 and went back few a years in the mid 90’s and i was shocked how big CDA got. the californicators ruined it.
I bought a foreclosure in Atlanta in 2008 - many foreclosure houses in Atlanta market in 2008. Saw some where the wiring was ripped out of the walls, etc. - passed. Saw plenty that were in excellent shape. Bought one that the builder went into foreclosure and the lender went into foreclosure. New house that never went to market but straight to foreclosure market. They will be out there.
Supply is low and nobody wants to upgrade because it would be complete stupidity to go from a 500K home with a 3% mortgage to a 700K home with a 7% mortgage. Hedge funds and other institutional folks are still sitting on a pile of free money they got from the Govt during the bailout. Buildable land is scarce and construction costs are high. It's going to take a hell of a recession to break this logjam...
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