Stock Market

[SilentStalkr]

Not sure where you get your stats, but you are WAY off.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/258779/us-exports-as-a-percentage-of-gdp/

The people that are getting screwed by tariffs are the farmers, ranchers, miners, etc.

That’s for all exported goods. What I meant to say was in reference to the same type of goods he was putting tariffs on for Mexico and Canada. Regardless, my main point still stands. Nobody wants to get into a trade war with the US. You simply will not/cannot win. All exports for us is a mere 11%. Canadas and Mexicos is at least 3x that for their gdp which is not even a sliver of our overall GDP. Who do you think could hold out longer on any trade war? That’s my main point.

Canadas entire GDP is like $2.7 trillion, Mexico’s is even worse than that. Nobody else is even close. You can’t compete with that. This year the US GDP is slated to be over $30-$31T. China can’t even touch that as they are nearly half. So all these other countries can talk a big game but without the American consumer purchasing their stuff, most of them wouldn’t have an economy at all. So, they can beat their chest all they want but they don’t want a trade war with us and they know that. It’s akin to teenagers letting off some steam.

 

[Malum Prohibitum]

Regardless, my main point still stands. Nobody wants to get into a trade war with the US. You simply will not/cannot win.

Nobody wants to get into trench warfare for four years, either, but wars happen. Trade wars happen, too, even if nobody "wants" to get into them.

 

[AZLong]

That’s for all exported goods. What I meant to say was in reference to the same type of goods he was putting tariffs on for Mexico and Canada. Regardless, my main point still stands. Nobody wants to get into a trade war with the US.

Nobody (with a lick of sense) wants to get into a trade war with anyone

You simply will not/cannot win. All exports for us is a mere 11%. Canadas and Mexicos is at least 3x that for their gdp which is not even a sliver of our overall GDP. Who do you think could hold out longer on any trade war? That’s my main point.

Holding out depends on what changes can be made. For instance, much of Mexico's imports to the US is agriculture, a lot of which is sent to Canada. Canada can simply choose to import directly via ship instead of through US over land, and visa versa. Adjustments will be made, and the consumer in all countries are the losers. Every time.

Canadas entire GDP is like $2.7 trillion, Mexico’s is even worse than that. Nobody else is even close. You can’t compete with that. This year the US GDP is slated to be over $30-$31T. China can’t even touch that as they are nearly half. So all these other countries can talk a big game but without the American consumer purchasing their stuff, most of them wouldn’t have an economy at all. So, they can beat their chest all they want but they don’t want a trade war with us and they know that. It’s akin to teenagers letting off some steam.

Again, nobody wins a trade war. Donny will realize this sooner or later. For our 401K sake, I hope it is sooner

 

[HarryBC]

Trump is not pursuing a trade war, he states parity with trading partners is his goal. He also speaks fondly of a time of great prosperity in the past US, a time with no Federal income tax, and budget surpluses, financed by tariffs( before 1900). He desires to minimize Federal income tax or eliminate entirely....speaks of short term pain leading to great prosperity. I have no idea how this will work out over time, but something has to change, current paths of Federal spending, deficits, etc are unsustainable..... my sympathies to those who want to maintain the status quo....

 

[SilentStalkr]

Trump is not pursuing a trade war, he states parity with trading partners is his goal. He also speaks fondly of a time of great prosperity in the past US, a time with no Federal income tax, and budget surpluses, financed by tariffs( before 1900). He desires to minimize Federal income tax or eliminate entirely....speaks of short term pain leading to great prosperity. I have no idea how this will work out over time, but something has to change, current paths of Federal spending, deficits, etc are unsustainable..... my sympathies to those who want to maintain the status quo....

Agreed!

 

[SilentStalkr]

Nobody wants to get into trench warfare for four years, either, but wars happen. Trade wars happen, too, even if nobody "wants" to get into them.

Hey, there is some crazy mofos out there. Granted, it’s generally politicians or people that have never exp anything or themselves.

 

[OldSalty2]

The media has hyped the "trade war" as a way to undermine Trump and cast FUD.

Change my mind...

 

[AZLong]

Media? Trump ignores the media, how does that affect him? Do the major investors, institutional investors, company CEOs, etc based monetary decisions on NYTimes articles?
In October just prior to the election, Trump said:

“We will begin a new era of soaring incomes,” Mr. Trump said at a rally in October. “Skyrocketing wealth. Millions and millions of new jobs and a booming middle class. We are going to boom like we’ve never boomed before.”

Last week, he said he can't rule out a recession:

“I hate to predict things like that,” he said. “There is a period of transition, because what we’re doing is very big. We’re bringing wealth back to America. That’s a big thing. And there are always periods of, it takes a little time. It takes a little time, but I think it should be great for us.”

The media is simply reporting what he says. From "boom like we have never boomed before" to a possible recession. All since inauguration. Who exactly is undermining Trump, and how?

 

[lariat]

Media? Trump ignores the media, how does that affect him? Do the major investors, institutional investors, company CEOs, etc based monetary decisions on NYTimes articles?
In October just prior to the election, Trump said:

“We will begin a new era of soaring incomes,” Mr. Trump said at a rally in October. “Skyrocketing wealth. Millions and millions of new jobs and a booming middle class. We are going to boom like we’ve never boomed before.”

Last week, he said he can't rule out a recession:

“I hate to predict things like that,” he said. “There is a period of transition, because what we’re doing is very big. We’re bringing wealth back to America. That’s a big thing. And there are always periods of, it takes a little time. It takes a little time, but I think it should be great for us.”

The media is simply reporting what he says. From "boom like we have never boomed before" to a possible recession. All since inauguration. Who exactly is undermining Trump, and how?

One thing I can say, at least he is being forthright about a recession. Most other presidents wouldn't do that. And he isn't wrong. Recessions take out malinvestment and make room for good investments and growth. You don't get economic boom after economic boom, doesn't work that way - there are economic cycles. Biden pushed spending (which included hiring government employees that were not needed) in order to avert a downturn and get re-elected. It was known by many that this was in the cards and not avoidable, those who didn't recognize this were not paying attention. Trump is actually speeding up and shortening the recession lifecycle by getting rid of wasteful spending at the government level. All Biden and Congress did was exacerbate the downturn; it will be worse than it needed to be because of all of the spending. And it will be worse for individuals because they can't keep their credit card in their wallet and make poor investment choices. That's the reality.

The businesses that over invested thinking that it would keep on going - that's on them and their investors. Now they lose because they were at best imprudent and overinvested, did stock repurchases or gave out dividends with financed debt, etc. They should have read the economy and not the New York Times, not gotten involved in woke agendas, and kept a firm eye on their financials.

You can't fight the economic cycles, but you can adapt to it. Those who don't get run over. Like the auto makers and others. The #1 person we all have to answer to for bad investments is in the mirror.

 

[HarryBC]

i heard some interesting speculation in several different reports last night, tied together by a caller to Hal Turner......Hal summarized the call in a posting this morning on his web page......Capital flying out of Europe right now as they head to war. If the path laid out is real, Trump is busy in the background preparing for such. Of course "heard it on the internet" disclaimer applies.

 

[lariat]

i heard some interesting speculation in several different reports last night, tied together by a caller to Hal Turner......Hal summarized the call in a posting this morning on his web page......Capital flying out of Europe right now as they head to war. If the path laid out is real, Trump is busy in the background preparing for such. Of course "heard it on the internet" disclaimer applies.

This is what Martin Armstrong is also saying - money is moving out of conflict zones before currency controls kick in. It is a heads up that those in the know are moving assets out of their own country and is the reason the gold is coming to the US and severely straining the LBMA.

 

[Malum Prohibitum]

Capital flying out of Europe right now as they head to war.

What war?

 

[Californio]

Before 2008 Warren Buffet raised billions from the market and then loaned it back for high interest Preferred Stock convertible to common stock ,when the economy improved, he started raising cash again in the second half of 2024, wash rinse repeat. My bet is CDO's and Derivatives rear their ugly heads this year.

 

[AZLong]

One thing I can say, at least he is being forthright about a recession. Most other presidents wouldn't do that. And he isn't wrong. Recessions take out malinvestment and make room for good investments and growth. You don't get economic boom after economic boom, doesn't work that way - there are economic cycles. Biden pushed spending (which included hiring government employees that were not needed) in order to avert a downturn and get re-elected. It was known by many that this was in the cards and not avoidable, those who didn't recognize this were not paying attention. Trump is actually speeding up and shortening the recession lifecycle by getting rid of wasteful spending at the government level. All Biden and Congress did was exacerbate the downturn; it will be worse than it needed to be because of all of the spending. And it will be worse for individuals because they can't keep their credit card in their wallet and make poor investment choices. That's the reality.

The businesses that over invested thinking that it would keep on going - that's on them and their investors. Now they lose because they were at best imprudent and overinvested, did stock repurchases or gave out dividends with financed debt, etc. They should have read the economy and not the New York Times, not gotten involved in woke agendas, and kept a firm eye on their financials.

You can't fight the economic cycles, but you can adapt to it. Those who don't get run over. Like the auto makers and others. The #1 person we all have to answer to for bad investments is in the mirror.

If he was actually being forthright and honest, this warning would have happened at inauguration. Not after the fact, not after he put this into motion. So either he didn't know, or didn't care. Does not matter which, but likely the former, and subsequently the latter.

And my response was to the claim that somehow the "MEDIA" is causing all of Donny's problems.

And it does not really matter what he screws up, nor how badly. It is someone else's fault. Always has been, always will be.

 

[Redmanss]

https://www.morningstar.com/markets/tariffs-arent-true-cause-markets-selloff