Inflation.......... ?

[Hobo Hilton]

As the down turn begins, it is appearing that the UK, Germany and France are showing more resilience than the US. May be too early to say. But they have not had a year of Biden.... IDK

One more sign:

Covid: Face mask rules and Covid passes to end in England

Working from home guidance is also ending as England reverts to "Plan A", Boris Johnson says.

www.bbc.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

I also believe that we could see 2% inflation in 2023. It would simply take a big recession and a banking crisis to do the trick. I'm mean, it's not like we've ever seen that in modern times, so this is purely hypothetical.

We could be witnessing the beginning of that recession as 2022 opens up.... The light at the end of the tunnel seems to be some of the commodities holding up well, like copper. A commodity that will always be needed.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Silver down 2.3%........ Gold up 1%

Interesting to watch the big player's sell silver to buy gold........ A historic reminder of uncertain times.

 

[nikonNUT]

Man,
I cannot get my head around precious metals. I always kinda remember that what ever direction the market moved metals swung the other way. When did that disconnect occur. Is it a “real” item in hand versus futures thing? Or does it have to due with FIAT currency?

 

[NoDopes]

I think the market doesn't move with any rational explanation... period... so the fact that isn't not tied to metals any longer makes sense to me.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Man,
I cannot get my head around precious metals. I always kinda remember that what ever direction the market moved metals swung the other way. When did that disconnect occur. Is it a “real” item in hand versus futures thing? Or does it have to due with FIAT currency?

Much of the disconnect is due to "Paper Trading" of gold rather than "Physical Trading" of gold..... Some of it is due to physical gold that is used in electronics, jewelry, etc. Another factor is some countries are buying physical gold and taking delivery of it. Some store it in their countries or, for security, store it in other countries....
It is suspected that some countries or cartels use their clout to control the price of gold... but, IDK
In this world of uncertainty, some people like to simply hold gold in their hand as a form of security.

 

[RUTGERS95]

Silver down 2.3%........ Gold up 1%

Interesting to watch the big player's sell silver to buy gold........ A historic reminder of uncertain times.

fsm, longer term future play

 

[Hobo Hilton]

fsm, longer term future play

IDK... Fortuna has been down trending for a year... Not seeing a bottom

 

[RUTGERS95]

IDK... Fortuna has been down trending for a year... Not seeing a bottom

very healthy book and below value on the balance sheet. Miners have just been beat up but you know what they say about mkt laggards in a running sector; buy early or buy late but buy! lol

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Doubtful there is any country in the world that a person could escape to in order to dodge inflation. Worldwide

UK manufacturers plan biggest price rises since 1977 – CBI

By David Milliken LONDON (Reuters) -British manufacturers expect to raise prices by the most since 1977 over the next three months, as they wrestle with serious labour shortages and the biggest

www.oann.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

“A case of premium jumbo lump crab normally cost us $100 a case; over the past few months that cost has spiked to $600 for that same case.”

Inflation Is Eating Away at the Heart of America’s Small Businesses › American Greatness

Of the four restaurants Rick McQuaide owns across several counties in Western Pennsylvania, one is barely making a profit, two are losing money and the fourth has been “temporarily” closed for far…

amgreatness.com

 

[Alpine 338]

Lumber has doubled in price since September.

I just paid $11,500 for two bunks of 2x8's and one bunk of 2x12's, all select structural grade.

Lumber futures forecast is showing it steadily increasing the next six months, and we all know it will skyrocket this coming Spring when construction season begins.

Recent report I read says one of the factors causing the prices to rise is contractors are starting to hoard lumber because of actual and perceived shortages to ensure they can continue jobs.

 

[Alpine 338]

Waiting for the Great Reset.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Lumber has doubled in price since September.

I just paid $11,500 for two bunks of 2x8's and one bunk of 2x12's, all select structural grade.

Lumber futures forecast is showing it steadily increasing the next six months, and we all know it will skyrocket this coming Spring when construction season begins.

Recent report I read says one of the factors causing the prices to rise is contractors are starting to hoard lumber because of actual and perceived shortages to ensure they can continue jobs.

Yep. I have been watching the commodity copper. Same thing, going at record high prices. Long lead times to get it out of the ground, refined and to manufacturer's. We are in a plus+plus+plus economy. Concrete+Lumber+Copper wiring+Labor... An old saying "Pricing themselves out of the market"... The unknown factor is interest rates. Might get a construction loan at a good rate and when it comes time to roll it over to a 30 year loan the rate may vanish.

Copper PRICE Today | Copper Spot Price Chart | Live Price of Copper per Ounce | Markets Insider

Copper Price: Get all information on the Price of Copper including News, Charts and Realtime Quotes.

markets.businessinsider.com

 

[BAMAboy18]

All the jokes about the "poor's", looking like quite a few more additions into that category. I've been working an extra 12 hour day of overtime to try and sustain my purchasing power, but even that is falling short. My $1-200 electric bill just jumped to $350, with this cold, I exspect it to be the same next month. My ole lady (who pays nothing) keeps bringing people into our home; sister, daughter and now fuckboy spends more time here than me. Up to my eyeballs. Y'all watch the news, I might go off soon and become one of Brandon Herra's memes...

 

[Alpine 338]

Fed signals it will likely hike interest rate in March to curtail inflation.​

Fed signals it will likely hike interest rate in March to curtail inflation

Federal Reserve signals it will likely lift key short-term rate in March for first time in three years to rein in inflation that's at a 40-year high.

www.usatoday.com

I say Yeah, good luck there.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Global oil benchmark tops $90 for the first time since 2014

Oil prices are at their highest level in more than seven years, adding to inflationary pressures seen across the economy.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

WASHINGTON, Jan 26 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve on Wednesday said it is likely to hike interest rates in March and reaffirmed plans to end its bond purchases that month in what U.S. central bank chief Jerome Powell pledged will be a sustained battle to tame inflation.

Fed likely to hike rates in March as Powell vows sustained inflation fight

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday said it is likely to hike interest rates in March and reaffirmed plans to end its bond purchases that month in what U.S. central bank chief Jerome Powell pledged will be a sustained battle to tame inflation.

www.reuters.com

 

[chrome]

Fed has painted themselves in a fucking corner. I can't wait to see them fucking stumble and fumble fuck their way out of this.

 

[NoDopes]

The Fed, always a day late and a dollar short. Or in this case, 700 days and 7 Trillion dollars.

 

[atepointer]

The Fed, always a day late and a dollar short. Or in this case, 700 days and 7 Trillion dollars.

What I find so interesting is the masses of people, pundits and economists who have been calling Powell and Co liars and incompetent for attempting to mislead people on what real inflation numbers are......are suddenly now willing believe they are going to tighten meaningfully or shut off QE with language like "The committee is of a mind to raise the federal funds rate at the March meeting assuming that the conditions are appropriate for doing so," - Powell. Tons of other language in that presser that reads to me like 'with the option to keep doing more of what we have been if our moving goal posts say so.'

On top of the fact Fed Board voting privileges go over to known doves in 2023 and Biden's 3 new board member picks up for review are extremely dovish. These are people whose papers talk about racial demographic wage increase focus, global swarming initiatives and preferential loans to banks who don't play with fossil fuel corporations etc. Freaking hysterical. The time to tighten was long ago it's way too late to raise enough to make a difference with today's inflation and they know it. All hikes from here out are simply symbolic...200 bps? We shall see it's all uncharted territory what a mess. Finishing up a fantastic book by Ray Dalio called Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed and Fail. We are creatures of habit!

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Fed has painted themselves in a fucking corner. I can't wait to see them fucking stumble and fumble fuck their way out of this.

A large portion of the Fed's debt is in reality "Debt to themselves".... This administration uses the term "debt forgiveness". They have done it with student loans, PPP money, loan forgiveness to businesses during the pandemic and many other schemes.... The consensus is that the Fed could not repay the loans it has if the interest rate increases.... So, they will magically "forgive the loans"... That will bring a sudden end to the rest of the financial world having faith in the US Government. Currently the only thing backing the USD is faith in the government.

 

[devildog93]

What I find so interesting is the masses of people, pundits and economists who have been calling Powell and Co liars and incompetent for attempting to mislead people on what real inflation numbers are......are suddenly now willing believe they are going to tighten meaningfully or shut off QE with language like "The committee is of a mind to raise the federal funds rate at the March meeting assuming that the conditions are appropriate for doing so," - Powell. Tons of other language in that presser that reads to me like 'with the option to keep doing more of what we have been if our moving goal posts say so.'

On top of the fact Fed Board voting privileges go over to known doves in 2023 and Biden's 3 new board member picks up for review are extremely dovish. These are people whose papers talk about racial demographic wage increase focus, global swarming initiatives and preferential loans to banks who don't play with fossil fuel corporations etc. Freaking hysterical. The time to tighten was long ago it's way too late to raise enough to make a difference with today's inflation and they know it. All hikes from here out are simply symbolic...200 bps? We shall see it's all uncharted territory what a mess. Finishing up a fantastic book by Ray Dalio called Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed and Fail. We are creatures of habit!

So what are the options and what do the results look like? We have a decent idea what hyperinflation might look like with Venezuela and a host of other central and south American countries to state and compare. What does raising the price of borrowing money look like? The only model I can remember in our country was when I was in grade school. All I remember then was gas lines and my father being generally ticked off a lot.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

So what are the options and what do the results look like? We have a decent idea what hyperinflation might look like with Venezuela and a hosst of other central and south American countries to state and compare. What does raising the price of borrowing money look like? The only model I can remember in our country was when I was in grade school. All I remember then was gas lines and my father being generally ticked off a lot.

The option that would give the USD the most stability would be to back it with gold. Next option would be to bring back the "Silver Certificates" and back the US currency with silver.
When a man discovers he has dug himself into a hole .... The first thing to do is to stop digging. In other words shut off the printing presses owned by the Fed.

 

[NoDopes]

“When the people find that they can vote themselves money that will herald the end of the republic.”​

That took longer than he thought...

 

[atepointer]

So what are the options and what do the results look like? We have a decent idea what hyperinflation might look like with Venezuela and a host of other central and south American countries to state and compare. What does raising the price of borrowing money look like? The only model I can remember in our country was when I was in grade school. All I remember then was gas lines and my father being generally ticked off a lot.

I can't speak for anyone else, but I'm just as committed to getting a return on my portfolio. Sitting in cash long term is insane by any measure and I feel inflation is only going higher. I didn't even like being heavier cash closing out the year, but glad I did to buy on sale last couple of weeks. I took a bit of a gamble on the technical traders sentiment that a lil bit of price discovery was going to take place with Fed speak moving the needle. Still keeping some on hand as I don't believe we have found a floor yet. This is plain and simple post WWII inflating away unpayable debt levels. Last year The United States payed a smidge over $300B in interest payments. If rates were gradually moved 200 bps that number grows to $750B. At 300 we are over $1T in interest payments alone. I believe the Fed is going to pump the brakes and retreat on tightening/tapering at some point short of those numbers and inflation is here to stay for a good while. If Powell is going to continue to focus on 'full employment' and inflation control he's got a problem. They don't play well together and if the Fed pursues maximum employment in a job market like this get ready for fewer/smaller rate hikes and more inflation.

In short the best any of us can do is make our best educated guess. If you are a reader or student of history I highly rec the Dalio book it's my best read in a decade. He has a very easy writing style that will allow you to keep right on reading as much as you want w/o having to back up and re-read to digest it all.

 

[Bigfatcock]

All the jokes about the "poor's", looking like quite a few more additions into that category. I've been working an extra 12 hour day of overtime to try and sustain my purchasing power, but even that is falling short. My $1-200 electric bill just jumped to $350, with this cold, I exspect it to be the same next month. My ole lady (who pays nothing) keeps bringing people into our home; sister, daughter and now fuckboy spends more time here than me. Up to my eyeballs. Y'all watch the news, I might go off soon and become one of Brandon Herra's memes...

I turned the heat off for the winter, and use space heaters to heat the room I’m in. The nice thing about it being 51 degrees in most of my house is no one wants to come over, lol.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Fed has painted themselves in a fucking corner. I can't wait to see them fucking stumble and fumble fuck their way out of this.

Looking like they are going to dig the hole a little bit deeper:

U.S. senators writing bill with 'substantial' Ukraine defense aid increases

A bipartisan group of U.S. senators have been meeting to hammer out legislation that would dramatically increase the amount of U.S. military aid for Ukraine, as it faces the threat of an invasion by Russia.

www.reuters.com

 

[chrome]

Looking like they are going to dig the hole a little bit deeper:

U.S. senators writing bill with 'substantial' Ukraine defense aid increases

A bipartisan group of U.S. senators have been meeting to hammer out legislation that would dramatically increase the amount of U.S. military aid for Ukraine, as it faces the threat of an invasion by Russia.

www.reuters.com

Unfucking believable.

Someone please pull the bucket of crack cocaine away from the fucking addicts.

 

[E. Bryant]

Annualized GDP growth was 6.9% last quarter. A full 4.9% was inventory growth. Maybe that's just returning inventories closer to pre-pandemic levels, but if it in any way signals a future reduction in demand, then this shit is primed to crater even if Powell doesn't move. And if 2008 taught us anything (LOL it didn't), the Fed's most likely move will be to start a rate hike as the contraction has already started.

 

[atepointer]

Looking like they are going to dig the hole a little bit deeper:

U.S. senators writing bill with 'substantial' Ukraine defense aid increases

A bipartisan group of U.S. senators have been meeting to hammer out legislation that would dramatically increase the amount of U.S. military aid for Ukraine, as it faces the threat of an invasion by Russia.

www.reuters.com

Good read here you might want to take in....someone is going to be right who knows. After all they have to protest the Pelosi family's portfolio. Have you seen the guy who tracks their performance? I think it's called 'Unusual Whales' or close to that....worth a laugh.

The Fed Has No Real Plan, and Will Likely Soon Chicken Out on Rate Hikes | Mises Institute

Powell repeatedly emphasized that the Fed must remain flexible about monetary tightening. Translation: we don't know what's happening and we're likely to

mises.org

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Natural gas spikes 16% ahead of winter storm | CNN Business

Natural gas futures soared Wednesday as energy markets brace for a powerful winter storm that threatens to derail production just as demand rises.

www.cnn.com

 

[S Roche]

^^^ Sad but true. Bill last month was $403 and we had temps that were above average for over half of the days. Its not going to get better for awhile.

 

[Bigfatcock]

I shut off the heat a month ago, and use a space heater in the bedroom. I’m pretty much living a season of “Alone” in my house. I refuse to pay double my normal bill.

 

[E. Bryant]

I'm on propane (at least when it's cold enough that the mini-splits aren't efficient), so anytime complaining about natural gas prices may kindly fuck off

 

[Mr.BR]

And propane is detached from the natgas prices? Last i remember is mostly a side product from Nat gas processing, difference in energy density is also reflected in the price so what is the magic wand that makes your propane burner immune to skyrocketing fossil fuel prices?

 

[Hobo Hilton]

The Fed is being prodded to raise interest rates by the world financial powers

Bank of England hikes rates in first back-to-back rise since 2004

The Bank of England on Thursday imposed back-to-back interest rate hikes for the first time since 2004 and began the process of quantitative tightening.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Alpine 338]

Propane is a waste byproduct of refining oil (typically during the process to create Diesel).

The beauty of Propane is you can purchase (and store) Propane when the prices are low, whereas if you are a Natural Gas user, you are at the mercy of the provider, and the volitilty of instantaneous price increases.

I've been buying Propane for almost 20 years, I try to buy in the Summer when prices are lower, and I also shop around for the best prices as there are four Propane providers in my area. Those who use Natural Gas, are stuck with one provider, and cannot shop around.

 

[E. Bryant]

And propane is detached from the natgas prices? Last i remember is mostly a side product from Nat gas processing, difference in energy density is also reflected in the price so what is the magic wand that makes your propane burner immune to skyrocketing fossil fuel prices?

At least here in the US it's detached from natural gas prices - different sources, different distribution channels, different demand. Probably not easy to understand from the other side of the pond.

I wish that propane was immune to increasing energy prices Quite the opposite, in fact, and natural gas has generally enjoyed a pricing advantage that goes back 10+ years.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

The domino's are falling rather quickly. Will the US government follow suit ?

LONDON, Feb 3 (Reuters) - Energy prices for millions of Britons will soar from April after a 54% hike to the regulatory price cap, forcing the government to stump up 9 billion pounds ($12 billion) of fresh support for already cash-strapped households.

Responding to the record global gas prices that have sent almost 30 British energy suppliers to the wall, regulator Ofgem said the cap on the most widely used tariff would rise to 1,971 pounds a year from April, the same month that taxes rise.

Britain scrambles $12 billion to soften 54% household energy price blow

Energy prices for millions of Britons will soar from April after a 54% hike to the regulatory price cap, forcing the government to stump up 9 billion pounds ($12 billion) of fresh support for already cash-strapped households.

www.reuters.com

 

[Mr.BR]

At least here in the US it's detached from natural gas prices - different sources, different distribution channels, different demand. Probably not easy to understand from the other side of the pond.

I wish that propane was immune to increasing energy prices Quite the opposite, in fact, and natural gas has generally enjoyed a pricing advantage that goes back 10+ years.

Indeed, at least here over the pond heating fuel that is trucked (oil,coal,propane, wood pelets .....)is always priced at spot market price and way more variable than nat gas that is contacted at fixed prices and over here even outside current crazy markets propane its not even close to being competitive, that is why it's only really used for remote off grid(nat gas grid) locations and for running your barbeque.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

U.S.-based oil futures settled above $90 a barrel on Thursday for the first time since October 2014.
The price surge signals optimism on the part of traders that the worst of Covid-19 will soon be over. Oil supplies are now nearly back to pre-Covid levels, and demand has risen nearly all the way back too—with the exception of jet fuel.

Oil Climbs Above $90 and Could Keep Going

West Texas Intermediate oil futures settle at $90.27 a barrel-- the highest since 2014.

www.barrons.com

 

[nikonNUT]

Had a good chat with my financial advisor today. Last comment was "We need to move some cash into bonds. You won't earn much but it will protect the wealth until all this shakes out!" Telling me thinks...

 

[Bigfatcock]

Lumber Prices Crash 30% as Mortgage Rates Start Going Up

The prospect of a cooling housing market tied to higher mortgage rates and ongoing supply-chain issues has sent the price of lumber tumbling from the lofty heights it hit last month. See: Housing --...

www.yahoo.com

Need it to come down a lot more. If it gets between $500-$600 per 1,000 bf, I’m definitely going to stock up. Would like to get about 20,000 BF put away.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Had a good chat with my financial advisor today. Last comment was "We need to move some cash into bonds. You won't earn much but it will protect the wealth until all this shakes out!" Telling me thinks...

There are bonds... and then there are "BONDS".... What exactly did he talk about ?

 

[nikonNUT]

There are bonds... and then there are "BONDS".... What exactly did he talk about ?

Municipals. Told me to stay the hell away from T-Bills. Looks like Invesco, Hartford, John Hancock, and a few others.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Municipals. Told me to stay the hell away from T-Bills. Looks like Invesco, Hartford, John Hancock, and a few others.

I'll link a 2 year old article from Forbes because they explain it better than me. The first two lines are:

Historically speaking, it’s best to avoid bonds when your central bank is printing money like crazy. More cash can lead to inflation, which can lead to higher interest rates—and put a damper on any fixed-rate holdings.

I am going to edit here: I went back and brought up charts on everything mentioned in the article. EVERYTHING started trending down around the middle of 2021. I would be hesitant to buy into anything that has been trending down for the past 7 months. For now, hold onto your money.

The 7 Best, And Worst, Bonds To Buy Right Now

It’s best to avoid bonds when your central bank is printing money like crazy.

www.forbes.com

 

[RUTGERS95]

Had a good chat with my financial advisor today. Last comment was "We need to move some cash into bonds. You won't earn much but it will protect the wealth until all this shakes out!" Telling me thinks...

lol, dump that guy. bonds is the last place you want to be in . you want reits in low growth, inflationary times with stable employment

 

[nikonNUT]

lol, dump that guy. bonds is the last place you want to be in . you want reits in low growth, inflationary times with stable employment

Maybe. He’s take me from 139k to better than 400k in 3 years. Not bad. I’m more worried about what to do with my silver. Damn near worthless from an ROI at this point but it was “free”.

 

[RUTGERS95]

Maybe. He’s take me from 139k to better than 400k in 3 years. Not bad. I’m more worried about what to do with my silver. Damn near worthless from an ROI at this point but it was “free”.

anyone with a dollar got 3 back in the market over the past 2 years. there is no magic sauce to what happened in the markets. You do not want bonds here as for your silver, invest in precious metals and gold if you want that type of investment as silver always lags.

Obviously you make a certain amount otherwise he wouldn't be suggesting munis and if you don't then definitely $hitcan his ass. curious, what house is he a broker for?