Is something going on in Ukraine?

[lariat]

There it is. Now we wait for NATO confirmation.

Wagner Declares Full Capture Of Bakhmut After 224 Days Of Fighting | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

 

[jthor]

and yet they are kicking collective West ass which uses Ukrop meat (higher quality than average western fat marbled beef).
But i should know better than to reply to a dude that uses more capslocked abbreviations than real words to form his sentences. I guess one has to be an operator to understand the strategy behind this fuckfest in Ukraine.

Hi there!
OPIR: Overhead Persistent Infrared
DSP: Defense Support Program, Cold War era OPIR satellite from the US.
SBIRS: Space-Based Infrared System, modern OPIR satellite from the US.
ISR: Intelligence Surveillance Reconnaissance
Glonass: Russian attempt at positioning, navigation, and Timing (PNT) satellite constellation that uses a frequency hopped spread spectrum (FHSS).
SIGINT: Signals intelligence. Several different flavors of this so feel free to do some reading.
GEOINT: imagery
F2T2EA: Find, Fix, Track, Target, engage and assess.
ELINT: electronic intelligence, most common source would be a radar.
OSINT: open source intelligence. Example: folks taking selfies of where they are at where you can see the surrounding area around them and or have Geo tagging on social media posts.
JDPI: Joint Desired Point of Impact
IADS: Integrated Air Defense System
C2: Command and Control.

Have a nice day champ!

 

[GreenGO Juan]

Russia’s military satellites are pretty dated. Their last OPIR sensor like the US DSP or SBIRs died close to 10 year ago now. Russian ISR collection platforms are either old or they have very few in comparison to the US and China.
Their GLONASS system, their version of GPS is also pretty crap.

So they could probably find it via SIGINT and follow up with GEOINT, but they are in the dark when it comes to OPIR which would help decrease their F2T2EA cycle of finding the patriot launchers after they have been moved and then fired.

So basically Russia is like...

 

[jthor]

So basically Russia is like...

With a few attempts a modern weaponry, yup

 

[Cardboard55]

Hi there!
OPIR: Overhead Persistent Infrared
DSP: Defense Support Program, Cold War era OPIR satellite from the US.
SBIRS: Space-Based Infrared System, modern OPIR satellite from the US.
ISR: Intelligence Surveillance Reconnaissance
Glonass: Russian attempt at positioning, navigation, and Timing (PNT) satellite constellation that uses a frequency hopped spread spectrum (FHSS).
SIGINT: Signals intelligence. Several different flavors of this so feel free to do some reading.
GEOINT: imagery
F2T2EA: Find, Fix, Track, Target, engage and assess.
ELINT: electronic intelligence, most common source would be a radar.
OSINT: open source intelligence. Example: folks taking selfies of where they are at where you can see the surrounding area around them and or have Geo tagging on social media posts.
JDPI: Joint Desired Point of Impact
IADS: Integrated Air Defense System
C2: Command and Control.

Have a nice day champ!

"Based on my study of Biblical times, the Babylonians, Medo-Persians, Greeks, and Romans operated with a simple kill chain acronym: FKP (find, kill, pillage).

This chain took decades to complete. The tribal leader, king, or queen got the treasure, and the unpaid soldiers got the food, the wine, and the conquered women. This process continued up to World War I..."

Shrinking the kill chain - Military Embedded Systems

WARFARE EVOLUTION BLOG: When I first started researching this topic, I thought writing this article would be straight-forward and easy. As with many other subjects in this series, that was not the case. Targeting models are integrated into kill chains, or vice-versa, and that creates some...

militaryembedded.com

 

[Cardboard55]

That still takes takes time create a targeting solution and the only thing thing they are going to get is an ELINT hit off of radars with the lack of OPIR. OSINT sources however can be pretty deadly and help develop a good JDPI on a target pretty fast when you lack other ways of gathering exact data on a target. Not an expert on how the Patriots are laid out, but I’ve seen one or 2 IADS diagrams in my time and I’m gonna assume that the Patriots keep their radars away from their launches and the most intelligent way to conduct C2 of fires would be via a physical connect and nothing that emits RF.
Not discrediting what you have said by any means.

What is the US' Patriot missile system defending Ukraine?

Russia claims it obliterated a roughly $1.1 billion, US-made Patriot missile system last night in Kyiv. Here's what you need to know about the Patriot and how it got there

www.dailymail.co.uk

Patriot Missile Battery Suddenly Appears At Small Regional Airport In Texas

Waking up to a sea of missile launchers and military vehicles left some asking what was going on and nobody seemed to have an answer, until now.

www.thedrive.com

Airports seem to be popular places to set them up. Need space between radar, control, launchers. Also heard zoos and parks mentioned, basically a place with a few football fields at least of unobstructed terrain. Limits locations in a city significantly, I'd imagine.

 

[Emerson0311]

That still takes takes time create a targeting solution and the only thing thing they are going to get is an ELINT hit off of radars with the lack of OPIR. OSINT sources however can be pretty deadly and help develop a good JDPI on a target pretty fast when you lack other ways of gathering exact data on a target. Not an expert on how the Patriots are laid out, but I’ve seen one or 2 IADS diagrams in my time and I’m gonna assume that the Patriots keep their radars away from their launches and the most intelligent way to conduct C2 of fires would be via a physical connect and nothing that emits RF.
Not discrediting what you have said by any means.

Why not just get a electronic message from a local who says “It’s right next to…”? Just like the “random” kids in sandy places or the projects.

 

[lariat]

Why not just get a electronic message from a local who says “It’s right next to…”? Just like the “random” kids in sandy places or the projects.

HUMINT. Seems to be happening on both sides.

 

[Darayavaus]

"have you exterminated all the goy yet?"
"still working on it!"

 

[Emerson0311]

HUMINT. Seems to be happening on both sides.

Imagine if there was a civil war in the US now. The civilians on either side of the front would not be mortal enemies, even if CNN said so.

 

[ChezJfrey]

So apparently, the Russians, using conscripted criminals, and untrained imbeciles, with no armor, tattered clothing, plummeting morale, starving, equipped with WWII rifles and flintlocks, with no ammo, rusted hulks of cold-war equipment, and outdated systems, are defeating Western super-tech of HIMARS, AWACS, Javelins, Patriots, Leopard and Abrams tanks, mercenary armies of true "operators" and have ground through a couple hundred thousand of Ukraine soldiers and wiped out the entire Ukraine air force...or, all this talk of "outdated" is a lie, misinformed, speculative assumption, or all this "advanced" MIC tech is just a massive cash-grab scam that offers little-to-nothing in the form of actual military superiority. Which is it?

 

[jthor]

Correct, that would be HUMINT. But you would still need to validate the report via some other source.

Assumption here is they are moving the launchers around after either a given period of time, number of launches or inductions a sight may have been compromised. Movements similar to the beginning of the war when they shuffled some of their systems around prior to invasion. That being said you can only place these in certain areas so it does eliminate areas that they can’t be.

 

[NoDopes]

I'll take "lies and cash grab" for $1000 Alex.

 

[Inifinty]

NATO to fund Russian target practice..

 

[kortik]

So apparently, the Russians, using conscripted criminals, and untrained imbeciles, with no armor, tattered clothing, plummeting morale, starving, equipped with WWII rifles and flintlocks, with no ammo, rusted hulks of cold-war equipment, and outdated systems, are defeating Western super-tech of HIMARS, AWACS, Javelins, Patriots, Leopard and Abrams tanks, mercenary armies of true "operators" and have ground through a couple hundred thousand of Ukraine soldiers and wiped out the entire Ukraine air force...or, all this talk of "outdated" is a lie, misinformed, speculative assumption, or all this "advanced" MIC tech is just a massive cash-grab scam that offers little-to-nothing in the form of actual military superiority. Which is it?

After I've moved in the USA in 1991, I've got quite of bit of education about do's and dont's. Here is one example, based on this funny story:
One dude bought some canned fish in commodities market. He got it, opened some cans and found out that all fish was bad. He got really upset and asked the commodities broker "WTF?". The broker replied - "Dude, didn't you know? This fish is not for eating, it is for buying and selling..."

 

[GreenGO Juan]

Correct, that would be HUMINT. But you would still need to validate the report via some other source.

Assumption here is they are moving the launchers around after either a given period of time, number of launches or inductions a sight may have been compromised. Movements similar to the beginning of the war when they shuffled some of their systems around prior to invasion. That being said you can only place these in certain areas so it does eliminate areas that they can’t be.

But getting back to the 6 (allegedly) arrested for filming the battery firing.

1. Where they actively working with the intentions of spying for Moscow?

2. Or just people sharing what they see going on so the world can see the truth?

Edit... man you really stirred up the sleeper Russia military fan boi crowd.

 

[GreenGO Juan]

NATO to fund Russian target practice..

Those old polish F-16's would potentially get converted into drones and used as target practice. Poland just inked a F-35 deal a few months back for 32 of them.

QF-16 drones provide live fire, joint training

Training pilots in the world’s greatest Air Force is no small task, taking ingenuity to provide realistic and effective training. Modifying F-16 Fighting Falcons into unmanned drones to use as

www.tyndall.af.mil

FYI, that would mean Poland would have nearly 3X as many 5th gen fighters as Russia.

 

[jthor]

So apparently, the Russians, using conscripted criminals, and untrained imbeciles, with no armor, tattered clothing, plummeting morale, starving, equipped with WWII rifles and flintlocks, with no ammo, rusted hulks of cold-war equipment, and outdated systems, are defeating Western super-tech of HIMARS, AWACS, Javelins, Patriots, Leopard and Abrams tanks, mercenary armies of true "operators" and have ground through a couple hundred thousand of Ukraine soldiers and wiped out the entire Ukraine air force...or, all this talk of "outdated" is a lie, misinformed, speculative assumption, or all this "advanced" MIC tech is just a massive cash-grab scam that offers little-to-nothing in the form of actual military superiority. Which is it?

I think your assessment is very surface level.
And what outdated tech is defeating the more advanced tech to what degree and significance? Everything has a failure rate or chance of intercept. Some of those success or failure rates being higher or lower depending on the system it is engaging.

Javelins: have wrecked havoc on Russian tanks and T-14s haven’t even showed face on the front.
Stingers: have downed cruise missiles, helos, and jets
HIMARS: have forced cause Russians to move certain equipment/depots away from the front.
M777: you can fire a few volleys from those, shoot and scoot, and hit a target precisely and move before counter battery fire starts. Using artillery as a precision guided munition vs a barrage attack. Depending on the munition you don’t need accuracy by volume. Lol

AWACS: not tracking AWACS in Ukraine, just Russian AWACS in Belarus and Russia. A NATO RC-135 River Joints in the Black Sea.
Probably flying sorties on the borders too, but I have no confirmation on that.

Abrams/Challengers/Leopards: don’t have enough data on those in Ukraine to give an intelligent response.

Old tech can defeat new if the user of the new tech just doesn’t utilize the capability correctly, by chance. I’m sure you could probably get a T-70 to defeat a modern Abrams if the the user of the Abrams employed it like an idiot.

Example: using a hypersonic practically like a ballistic missile. If you use a hypersonic like that then there isn’t much of a benefit to it other than the added speed.

Old tech can also be modified to be newer-ish. Example being the Soviet drones the Ukrainians retrofitted.
Newer tech also in some cases adds counter measures to a newer threat or to counter, counter measures for a target.It’s a constant race.

 

[jthor]

But getting back to the 6 (allegedly) arrested for filming the battery firing.

1. Where they actively working with the intentions of spying for Moscow?

2. Or just people sharing what the see going on so the world can see the truth?

Edit... man you really stirred up the sleeper Russia military fan boi crowd.

No idea if they were working with the Russian forces.
But open source photos/videos can heavily damage military ops and aid both you and the enemy. Open source Intel really hurt the Russians in the beginning of this conflict and the 2014 invasions cover story. Plus the russian SAM shooting down an airliner probably didn’t help.
If look at if from the lens of how much open source Intel can impact your forces I can understand it. They’re also fighting a war, we’re not and they directly see the impacts of these things.
If the government is asking folks not to post photos and videos on weapon movements, fires and so on it is understandable.

 

[DIBBS]

Had to repost this... had to.... lol

 

[theLBC]

A senior Ukrainian official has admitted that his country has assassinated "quite a few" Russian civilians who support Putin and his war to assert control of the Donbas region. In an interview with The Times of London, Major General Kyrylo Budanov, who heads Ukraine's military intelligence service, also promised more attacks are to come.

Ukraine Admits Murdering "Quite A Few" Russian Civilians Who Back Putin And His Invasion | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

 

[theLBC]

 

[sharac]

Thx for the free education. I feel so much better now. Go Ukraine!

I think the next few days will be crucial as Russians are all celebrating The big push will start in i think while fighting will be heavy Ukraine flag will fly proudly in Moscow somewhere in September.

In reality its pretty apparent (all but to few really thick ones) that advertisment does not reflect reality - kinda like McDonalds billboards.

 

[theLBC]

 

[GreenGO Juan]

Now its just a pile of burned out rubble.

And this is the tragedy.

 

[theLBC]

Now its just a pile of burned out rubble.

And this is the tragedy.

as i have said so many times, they aren't "saving" ukraine, they are helping to destroy it. even if russia said "fuck it" and went home, there is little to come back to for the ukrainians that lived there (athough some residential areas might have been spared complete destruction).

 

[Forgetful Coyote]

 

[khel]

Russia’s military satellites are pretty dated. Their last OPIR sensor like the US DSP or SBIRs died close to 10 year ago now. Russian ISR collection platforms are either old or they have very few in comparison to the US and China.
Their GLONASS system, their version of GPS is also pretty crap.

So they could probably find it via SIGINT and follow up with GEOINT, but they are in the dark when it comes to OPIR which would help decrease their F2T2EA cycle of finding the patriot launchers after they have been moved and then fired.

I'm so happy we have someone on SH that can tell us everything about the latest Russian spy satellites!! Please, tell us more! I want to know juicy details about that crappy GLONASS system and in what way it's complete crap.

 

[jthor]

I'm so happy we have someone on SH that can tell us everything about the latest Russian spy satellites!! Please, tell us more! I want to know juicy details about that crappy GLONASS system and in what way it's complete crap.

Sorry, this isn’t discord.

 

[GreenGO Juan]

Why one of the reasons why the area (bakhmut/Soldar)was important and fought over

 

[DarnYankeeUSMC]

Russia’s military satellites are pretty dated. Their last OPIR sensor like the US DSP or SBIRs died close to 10 year ago now. Russian ISR collection platforms are either old or they have very few in comparison to the US and China.
Their GLONASS system, their version of GPS is also pretty crap.

They are probably getting the info from China.

 

[theLBC]

somebody here is stuck in the 90s.
the russians have advanced systems that can triangulate and target an artillery battery (offer a solution) within 30 seconds of them firing.
i have already posted info and video on them here.

 

[Longshot231]

Why one of the reasons why the area (bakhmut/Soldar)was important and fought over

Bidding on the Thompsons starts in 5... 4... 3... 2...

 

[GreenGO Juan]

Bidding on the Thompsons starts in 5... 4... 3... 2...

I call dibs on one of the maxims.

 

[ChezJfrey]

I'm so happy we have someone on SH that can tell us everything about the latest Russian spy satellites!! Please, tell us more! I want to know juicy details about that crappy GLONASS system and in what way it's complete crap.

I'm pretty sure Shawn Eckhardt did not die, but is alive on this forum as jthor: https://www.military.com/underthera...steven-rogers-captured-craziness-i-tonya.html

 

[lariat]

I'm so happy we have someone on SH that can tell us everything about the latest Russian spy satellites!! Please, tell us more! I want to know juicy details about that crappy GLONASS system and in what way it's complete crap.

Yup. For such a bad system as GLONASS there is a ton of equipment that has been blown to hell. Never mind the drones and other assets that are using it to good effect.

I understand not liking Russia, most of us grew up in the Cold War. I remember the duck and cover under the desk as well as some pentagon general on NBC one night stating how many nukes the USSR had vs the US, etc. But denying that they are a peer in this conflict is not wise. It clearly being demonstrated what their strengths are, where NATO is weak and that they are serious about this campaign. We need to pay close attention and not buy into our own hubris. To do otherwise could lead to terrible decisions that endanger the world.

People can die because the truth is ignored. And they are - a whole country has been decimated because of blind hatred. And I fear that what once was a hostile enemy that could have been made a trading partner has been made into a permanent enemy that has been underestimated not only in terms of capabilities but also in resolve - not just the government but the people. This conflict has caused a surge in investment in warfare by our adversaries that won’t go away anytime soon, not to mention economic strategies that may very well be used to weaken us ahead of any future kinetic action. And US children will suffer economically and on the battlefield because of it.

Stating someone is incapable doesn’t make it so, but it can cause a laziness in preparing that lays the foundation for future failures that could be catastrophic.

 

[kortik]

Yup. For such a bad system as GLONASS there is a ton of equipment that has been blown to hell. Never mind the drones and other assets that are using it to good effect.

I understand not liking Russia, most of us grew up in the Cold War. I remember the duck and cover under the desk as well as some pentagon general on NBC one night stating how many nukes the USSR had vs the US, etc. But denying that they are a peer in this conflict is not wise. It clearly being demonstrated what their strengths are, where NATO is weak and that they are serious about this campaign. We need to pay close attention and not buy into our own hubris. To do otherwise could lead to terrible decisions that endanger the world.

People can die because the truth is ignored. And they are - a whole country has been decimated because of blind hatred. And I fear that what once was a hostile enemy that could have been made a trading partner has been made into a permanent enemy that has been underestimated not only in terms of capabilities but also in resolve - not just the government but the people. This conflict has caused a surge in investment in warfare by our adversaries that won’t go away anytime soon, not to mention economic strategies that may very well be used to weaken us ahead of any future kinetic action. And US children will suffer economically and on the battlefield because of it.

Stating someone is incapable doesn’t make it so, but it can cause a laziness in preparing that lays the foundation for future failures that could be catastrophic.

Excellent summary of the real world situation.

And this video plainly and logically explains what is going to happen in the near future:

 

[theLBC]

ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

 

[GreenGO Juan]

ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

 

[lariat]

Good video from Douglas macgregor.

 

[babyguppy]

Why one of the reasons why the area (bakhmut/Soldar)was important and fought over

damn...... a collectors dream on some of those weapons

 

[GreenGO Juan]

Good video from Douglas macgregor.

Grown quite fond of listening to his opinions. Damn shame more don’t share his wisdom.

 

[ken226]

Every other news article that pops up when I open google, is about Ukraine using Patriots to shoot down hypersonic Kinzhal missiles, complete with lots of pics, offered up as proof:

Except, the pic doesn't even look close to that of a Kinzhal. The Pic of Klitchko standing next to the "Kinzhal", pretty clearly shows a steep, parabolic taper.

The actual Kinzal, has a taper that is significantly more gradual.

That thing Klitchko is standing next to looks more like a soviet era KH22, or one of its derivatives.

 

[theLBC]

ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

 

[Shooter McGavin]

ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

I stop reading after I saw this:

But something else is cooking, as some in the American intelligence community know and have reported in secret, at the instigation of government officials at various levels in Poland, Hungary, Lithuania, Estonia, Czechoslovakia, and Latvia. These countries are all allies of Ukraine and declared enemies of Vladimir Putin.

WTF Czechoslovakia?!

 

[GreenGO Juan]

Remember that one time Ukraine actually had the ability to fire long range missiles…

Just dis arm yourself… you can trust us.

 

[IndianaRem5r]

John McCain? I thought you were dead and burning in hell right now.

There is no hell as religion is storytelling designed to keep you fools from causing problems. As a result, John McCain's remains are just in the ground or in an urn.

 

[Darayavaus]

View attachment 8146666

the front of a KH22, a tube from a leaf blower, what looks like the guts of a washing machine, and some assorted other spare parts.

that's some Ghost of Kiev level stuff there.

 

[Darayavaus]

There is no hell as religion is storytelling designed to keep you fools from causing problems. As a result, John McCain's remains are just in the ground or in an urn.

go away, commie!

 

[lariat]

There is no hell as religion is storytelling designed to keep you fools from causing problems. As a result, John McCain's remains are just in the ground or in an urn.

We can agree on a couple things for sure: McCain’s physical remains are definitely still around in some form or fashion. And if you mean keeping us from causing problems such as adultery, theft, envy, etc that hurt our fellow man and ultimately ourselves I can fully agree with that. That’s simply Greatest Commandment stuff right there, pretty straightforward, and I would argue that it should be obvious to even those who eschew religion. I say “should” because there are many who justify their actions that hurt themselves and others for what they perceive is gain to them, while knowing full well what they do is morally wrong.

Whether or not there is a hell or heaven is up to each of us to decide. I can respect that, we all have that particular decision to make. I’m past the point in my life where it is imperative to fight about such things as I have learned that it doesn’t yield fruit one way or the other. It’s funny how time and experience removes angst that never should have been present to begin with.