Recession - 2022 / 2023 / 2024
- Thread starter Hobo Hilton
- Start date
I'll key off of that thought with something I have going, as we speak. I have a 1997 Ford, F250, 4X4, gas engine with a manual ZF5 transmission at 160k miles. Really good, tight old truck. Time for a new clutch and a transmission rebuild. Nothing out of the ordinary. At my old age, I figured I'd look into having the job done at a local, reputable transmission shop that I dealt with over the years for my Amzoil. Went by there yesterday, with the truck. We only talked in "Ball Park" figures. Now, I know there are some of you who have connections with a shade tree mechanic who will work cheap, there is always a few in the group. To me, it's not worth the risk on a project of this magnitude. We discussed several "what if's" that they might find once everything is torn down. I full well accept that line of thought. After talking a while, a figure was arrived at..... $7,000 +/-....
Side bar:
How many Americans have $5000 in savings?
58% of Americans have less than $5,000 in savings.
More specifically, 42% have less than $1,000 in savings, while another 20% have more than $50,000 in savings.
So, with a situation like this facing the "Average American family of 4"... What do they do, in many cases ?
They take a beating on a dealership giving them scrap price for their broken down car, take just enough out of savings (or borrow money) to make a down payment on a new car. Why ? Because they qualify for financing and they never ask what the APR is......
This "ripple effect" at the beginning of the worst recession America has ever seen means this family will be still driving a car they purchased today.... 15 years down the road. If they are lucky enough to pay the note and not have it repossessed.
One more "Recession Bear Trap".... Same thing happened in the last 3 - 4 recessions. History will repeat itself.
Me, I will buy parts as my budget allows and if the Good Lord is willing, I will do the labor myself. May take me a week to get it done but that is acceptable.
20+ Shocking American Savings Statistics [2023]: Average Personal Savings Accounts, Demographics, And Facts - Zippia
Research Summary: Whether you’re a home-owner, renting, or living with family members, nearly every American struggles with saving their hard-earned cash. In fact, debt has become a way of life for most of us, ensuring that our savings are eaten away by monthly payments. But, what is the average...
www.zippia.com
I'm thinking along the same line, but waiting for car prices to come down. Buying cars/trucks right now has me thinking like I do with guns and ammo. Common parts, readily available and cheap. 2006 f150 with a 4.6 is going to be sticking around a while. Wife may have to wait on her dream car a bit.I'll key off of that thought with something I have going, as we speak. I have a 1997 Ford, F250, 4X4, gas engine with a manual ZF5 transmission at 160k miles. Really good, tight old truck. Time for a new clutch and a transmission rebuild. Nothing out of the ordinary. At my old age, I figured I'd look into having the job done at a local, reputable transmission shop that I dealt with over the years for my Amzoil. Went by there yesterday, with the truck. We only talked in "Ball Park" figures. Now, I know there are some of you who have connections with a shade tree mechanic who will work cheap, there is always a few in the group. To me, it's not worth the risk on a project of this magnitude. We discussed several "what if's" that they might find once everything is torn down. I full well accept that line of thought. After talking a while, a figure was arrived at..... $7,000 +/-....
Side bar:
How many Americans have $5000 in savings?
58% of Americans have less than $5,000 in savings.
More specifically, 42% have less than $1,000 in savings, while another 20% have more than $50,000 in savings.
So, with a situation like this facing the "Average American family of 4"... What do they do, in many cases ?
They take a beating on a dealership giving them scrap price for their broken down car, take just enough out of savings (or borrow money) to make a down payment on a new car. Why ? Because they qualify for financing and they never ask what the APR is......
This "ripple effect" at the beginning of the worst recession America has ever seen means this family will be still driving a car they purchased today.... 15 years down the road. If they are lucky enough to pay the note and not have it repossessed.
One more "Recession Bear Trap".... Same thing happened in the last 3 - 4 recessions. History will repeat itself.
Me, I will buy parts as my budget allows and if the Good Lord is willing, I will do the labor myself. May take me a week to get it done but that is acceptable.
20+ Shocking American Savings Statistics [2023]: Average Personal Savings Accounts, Demographics, And Facts - Zippia
Research Summary: Whether you’re a home-owner, renting, or living with family members, nearly every American struggles with saving their hard-earned cash. In fact, debt has become a way of life for most of us, ensuring that our savings are eaten away by monthly payments. But, what is the average...
By the way, that zf5 is a bear to rebuild. I don't shy away from tearing into most transmissions , but that is one. The shop manual on it looks like the f/a-18 hornet manual. Daunting.
Yep, I may just swap out the ZF 5 for a rebuilt one.... But, what can you expect when the German Ford engineers hide the hydraulic clutch slave cylinder in the bell housing... ?
Amazon says it will cut over 18,000 jobs, more than initially planned
Amazon has decided to get rid of additional roles after committing to a round of cuts in its corporate workforce in November.
www.cnbc.com
Long and painful 
Following the meeting, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that while there has been some progress made in the battle against inflation, he saw only halting signs and expects rates to hold at higher levels even after the increases cease.
www.cnbc.com
Following the meeting, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that while there has been some progress made in the battle against inflation, he saw only halting signs and expects rates to hold at higher levels even after the increases cease.
Fed minutes December 2022:
Policymakers expressed the importance of keeping restrictive policy in place while inflation holds unacceptably high.
Baltic Index Crashes Most On Record As Recession Alarm Flashes | ZeroHedge
ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com
2023 will be the "long glide, dead stick approach"...... The amount of free Government money being doled out in 2023 will be staggering......
Caution: Soft landing ahead...
Ford said it sold more than 75,000 F-Series pickups in December, a 20.1% increase compared to a year earlier and the best month of the year as parts and supply chain problems disrupted production. Sales of the trucks still ended the year down 9.9% but better than the 13% they were down through November.
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Interesting statement, above. A large percentage of Ford trucks are sold to "Government Agencies"... The more the Government "buy's" from private industry, the better the numbers look.
The Lariat trim starts at $57,480, and the King Ranch model starts at $63,005. The upscale Platinum model starts at $64,695, and the luxurious Limited model begins at $84,910.
www.cnbc.com
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Interesting statement, above. A large percentage of Ford trucks are sold to "Government Agencies"... The more the Government "buy's" from private industry, the better the numbers look.
The Lariat trim starts at $57,480, and the King Ranch model starts at $63,005. The upscale Platinum model starts at $64,695, and the luxurious Limited model begins at $84,910.
Ford pickup truck sales in December help narrow overall sales decline in 2022
Ford reported sales of more than 1.9 million vehicles in 2022, including an increase of 3.2% during the final month of the year.
www.cnbc.com
And this is one reason why interest rates will continue to go up.
Ford said it sold more than 75,000 F-Series pickups in December, a 20.1% increase compared to a year earlier and the best month of the year as parts and supply chain problems disrupted production. Sales of the trucks still ended the year down 9.9% but better than the 13% they were down through November.
___________
Interesting statement, above. A large percentage of Ford trucks are sold to "Government Agencies"... The more the Government "buy's" from private industry, the better the numbers look.
The Lariat trim starts at $57,480, and the King Ranch model starts at $63,005. The upscale Platinum model starts at $64,695, and the luxurious Limited model begins at $84,910.
Ford pickup truck sales in December help narrow overall sales decline in 2022
Ford reported sales of more than 1.9 million vehicles in 2022, including an increase of 3.2% during the final month of the year.
Just wait until 2050 when the F150 is all electric and costs 560k dollars while the average american makes 60k a year. It can be yours today with a 960 month loan and zero down!
To invest one needs excess earnings. Inflation is killing that option for many.
But, if you think about it.... Anyone carrying a balance on a credit card, car loan, medical bills, etc. is investing in the finance industry... LOL...
They go into debt because they have to and they'll never make enough to pay off that debt because income doesn't keep pace with inflation. So everyone is looking to the government to save them via Social Security.
It doesn't help that our economy is based around buying stupid shit you don't need.
I had this conversation with my 70 year old parents. They want to "help you kids" and I told them the first thing they need to do is stop spending money. Talk about a conversation killer.
The next few generations will either pull a rabbit out of a hat and save America or we'll turn into Soviet Union 2.0.
I would argue that they are in servitude to the finance industry. Thats not investing - unless you are the bank.But, if you think about it.... Anyone carrying a balance on a credit card, car loan, medical bills, etc. is investing in the finance industry... LOL...
Nope. Invest in insurance companies. The average American life expectancy is plummeting and most policies don't pay out for "died suddenly".
But I'd still avoid pension investments. Those are all about to crash.
Perhaps this is a "Political Move"...
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New York —
The Federal Trade Commission on Thursday said it is proposing a rule to ban employers from imposing noncompete agreements on workers and to rescind all existing noncompete agreements.
The FTC’s reasoning: Such agreements, which affect millions of rank-and-file employees and independent contractors across industries, in addition to business executives, have suppressed competition, wages and entrepreneurship.
www.cnn.com
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New York —
The Federal Trade Commission on Thursday said it is proposing a rule to ban employers from imposing noncompete agreements on workers and to rescind all existing noncompete agreements.
The FTC’s reasoning: Such agreements, which affect millions of rank-and-file employees and independent contractors across industries, in addition to business executives, have suppressed competition, wages and entrepreneurship.
Federal Trade Commission proposes banning noncompetes for workers | CNN Business
The Federal Trade Commission on Thursday said it is proposing a rule to ban employers from imposing noncompete agreements on workers and to rescind all existing noncompete agreements.
www.cnn.com
will this make it easier for those that get laid off to find new jobs?Perhaps this is a "Political Move"...
______________
New York —
The Federal Trade Commission on Thursday said it is proposing a rule to ban employers from imposing noncompete agreements on workers and to rescind all existing noncompete agreements.
The FTC’s reasoning: Such agreements, which affect millions of rank-and-file employees and independent contractors across industries, in addition to business executives, have suppressed competition, wages and entrepreneurship.
Federal Trade Commission proposes banning noncompetes for workers | CNN Business
The Federal Trade Commission on Thursday said it is proposing a rule to ban employers from imposing noncompete agreements on workers and to rescind all existing noncompete agreements.
Wait, GOP controls the House now (if they can settle on a Speaker), can't they slow down the giveaways since the House manages the purse?
Yes, saw this first hand. Initially Ford did not take the bailout money that GM got but Ford did get a contract for a BUNCH of stripped F150s for the Federal agencies. We called them Obama TrucksFord said it sold more than 75,000 F-Series pickups in December, a 20.1% increase compared to a year earlier and the best month of the year as parts and supply chain problems disrupted production. Sales of the trucks still ended the year down 9.9% but better than the 13% they were down through November.
___________
Interesting statement, above. A large percentage of Ford trucks are sold to "Government Agencies"... The more the Government "buy's" from private industry, the better the numbers look.
The Lariat trim starts at $57,480, and the King Ranch model starts at $63,005. The upscale Platinum model starts at $64,695, and the luxurious Limited model begins at $84,910.
Ford pickup truck sales in December help narrow overall sales decline in 2022
Ford reported sales of more than 1.9 million vehicles in 2022, including an increase of 3.2% during the final month of the year.
........... and that is the $64,000 question...........
It would seem that way. Appears is a a States Right issue and not Federal.
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Only three states ban employee noncompetes: California (since 1872, see Edwards v. Arthur Andersen LLP, 44 Cal. 4th 937, 945 (2008)); North Dakota (since 1865—before North Dakota was even a state, see Werlinger v. Mut. Serv. Cas. Ins. Co., 496 N.W.2d 26 (N.D. 1993)); and Oklahoma (since 1890—before Oklahoma was a state, see Brandon Kemp, “Noncompetes in Oklahoma Mergers and Acquisitions,” 88 Okla. B.J. 128, 128 (2017)).
A Brief History of Noncompete Regulation - Fair Competition Law
Noncompete, Massachusetts, non compete, noncompetition, trade secret
faircompetitionlaw.com
"Social Assistance" ?????? The warm and fuzzy word for minimum wage, no benefits and shows up to work 1 - 2 days a week....
Anyone betting on Health care + social assistance jobs to pull America through this recession ?
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Anyone betting on Health care + social assistance jobs to pull America through this recession ?
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Keying off of a conversation from almost a year ago:
Domino's are falling..... Big changes at Defiance.
Defiance action new costs?!
Ordered my tenacity short action a couple months ago , right before they changed ownership , just so happen to look at a couple websites just now and my action is Now selling for $1,600…. I paid lile $950 after my veterans discount for mine. Do all companies plan on hiking up their prices...
www.snipershide.com
gov calling food at anything under 10% is a joke.Keying off of a conversation from almost a year ago:
Domino's are falling..... Big changes at Defiance.
Defiance action new costs?!
Ordered my tenacity short action a couple months ago , right before they changed ownership , just so happen to look at a couple websites just now and my action is Now selling for $1,600…. I paid lile $950 after my veterans discount for mine. Do all companies plan on hiking up their prices...
eggs from 1.00 to 7 dollars a dozen
sirloin from 4.99 to 9.99 a lb
chicken breasts from 3.99 to 7.99 a lb
Hell, even pork has gone sky high. Granted if you can buy 'ALL' you pork needs twice a year and catch the big July and December sale.. you can save money. Same with Turkey. If you can afford to buy 20 birds around Thanksgiving and keep them frozen (electrical costs) you can do ok.
etc...
I'd like to see the 'food' the government is using to figure out their inflation rate.
cabbage? broccoli?
I'd like to scan over the price increases on the "food" that the White House is buying as well as every Governor's Mansion.
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Propaganda - - - - The price of hosting a single state dinner can exceed half a million dollars. For the most part though, the president and first family eat in private, just like ordinary folks. In a 2018 interview with Jimmy Kimmel, former First Lady Michelle Obama revealed that the first family must pay for their own groceries.Oct 8, 2022
Who Foots The Bill For White House Food? - Tasting Table
Obviously, the Secret Service won't let the president loose in a Kroger, so who buys groceries for them and, most importantly, who foots the bill?
www.tastingtable.com
Their inflation calcs are straight up propaganda. The whole thing is designed to keep the peasants stupid while making a small number of people fantastically wealthy.
Just wait some moron will post up about how he's not affected because he buys rice/beans online from a bulk warehouse in Malaysia and his corner of Oklahoma has offgrid unlicensed potato farms
LOLI'd like to scan over the price increases on the "food" that the White House is buying as well as every Governor's Mansion.
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Propaganda - - - - The price of hosting a single state dinner can exceed half a million dollars. For the most part though, the president and first family eat in private, just like ordinary folks. In a 2018 interview with Jimmy Kimmel, former First Lady Michelle Obama revealed that the first family must pay for their own groceries.Oct 8, 2022
Who Foots The Bill For White House Food? - Tasting Table
Obviously, the Secret Service won't let the president loose in a Kroger, so who buys groceries for them and, most importantly, who foots the bill?
First Lady Michelle Obama revealed that the first family must pay for their own groceries
How much did lobster increase thanks to mike? O's never paid a fk'n dime.. you don't go into the presidency worth less than a million and come out with 35million on the President's salary.
I’m surprised it’s that low.
NEW ORLEANS (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve's effort to shock the economy back to lower inflation is in its early days, making it tough for the U.S. central bank to avoid overdoing it with higher-than-needed interest rates, a top economic adviser in the Obama White House said after a fresh review of Fed policy since World War Two.
The Fed has raised its target policy rate by more than 4 percentage points in the last year, and "we are just now entering the window where the effects might start to be noticed," Christina Romer, an economics professor at the University of California, Berkeley, and chair of the White House's Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) from 2009 to 2010, told a national gathering of economists late on Saturday.
The Fed has raised its target policy rate by more than 4 percentage points in the last year, and "we are just now entering the window where the effects might start to be noticed," Christina Romer, an economics professor at the University of California, Berkeley, and chair of the White House's Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) from 2009 to 2010, told a national gathering of economists late on Saturday.
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Goldman Sachs will lay off up to 3,200 workers this week | CNN Business
Goldman Sachs will lay off as many as 3,200 employees this week as an uncertain economic and market climate pushes the bank to hunt for cost savings, according to a person familiar with the matter.
www.cnn.com
Anti strike legislation.... Take note:
LONDON — U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is preparing to meet union leaders this week for what he hopes will be “constructive” talks as he seeks to halt nationwide industrial action, even as his government prepares controversial anti-strike legislation.
Tens of thousands of workers have walked out across industries in recent months to demand better working conditions and pay raises in line with inflation, which is still running at double digits in the U.K.
www.cnbc.com
LONDON — U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is preparing to meet union leaders this week for what he hopes will be “constructive” talks as he seeks to halt nationwide industrial action, even as his government prepares controversial anti-strike legislation.
Tens of thousands of workers have walked out across industries in recent months to demand better working conditions and pay raises in line with inflation, which is still running at double digits in the U.K.
UK PM Sunak seeks ‘constructive’ union talks as government readies contentious anti-strike laws
Tens of thousands of workers have walked out across industries in recent months to demand better working conditions and pay raises in line with inflation.
Yup Ford did not take the money, Dodge got bought out by Fiat leaving only GM to get the hand out.
At one time I was a very GM guy, hell I worked for them, both in dealers (not really working for GM) and at Pontiac training center. Then not long after leaving my transmission went kaboom at 20k miles, ok it happens covered. Kaboom again at 50k, not covered, fixed and sold never to buy another GM in my life.....but I do like the new Corvette. Never buy one but it does look nice.
Ain't that the truth, I want an answer to that question....not that we will ever get it. Oh you "invested" wisely......how is that, knowing what congress is working on, what you are going to pass that will "help out" this or that sector then buy into that......AT FUCKING BEST.
Let's tax the middle class out of existence. You will own nothing and you will not be happy.
Yeap. Notice how they always talk about stuff like "Corporate Windfall Tax" but when it actually happens its targeted directly at the middle/lower classes. Like slight increases in sales or property taxes or whatever. The millionaires in Congress aren't going to raise their own taxes lol.
A. somewhat, different type of a recession. Worldwide and never seem before. Interesting to watch it unfold and observe how many so called "Experts" are being proven wrong.
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The Swiss National Bank on Monday reported a loss of 132 billion Swiss francs ($143 billion) for the 2022 financial year, citing preliminary figures.
It represents the biggest loss in the central bank’s 116-year history and equates to roughly 18% of Switzerland’s projected gross domestic product of 744.5 billion Swiss francs. Its previous record loss was 23 billion francs in 2015.
www.cnbc.com
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The Swiss National Bank on Monday reported a loss of 132 billion Swiss francs ($143 billion) for the 2022 financial year, citing preliminary figures.
It represents the biggest loss in the central bank’s 116-year history and equates to roughly 18% of Switzerland’s projected gross domestic product of 744.5 billion Swiss francs. Its previous record loss was 23 billion francs in 2015.
Swiss central bank posts biggest loss in its 116-year history
The central bank took a massive hit on its large pile of foreign currency holdings as the Swiss franc strengthened.
As a result of all this, he said, the central bank is making working- and middle-class Americans pay with what he expects will be a punishing recession. - Siegel
Interesting that "they" blame the elderly for the issue.
A better headline would be "sorry - much less government spending is necessary"
eggs - 9.00 dollars a dozen
two gallons of gas, or 1 dozen eggs
two gallons of gas, or 1 dozen eggs
Travel and Leisure update, things are still going full regard, occupancy at 98-100%. People are still spending like mad to get that “vacation”, and the company is happy to sell it to them.
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