people might be taking out home equity loans; thinking that life will continue to be great.
RE - 2006(ish) bubble burst and lots of people lost their butts.
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Recession - 2022 / 2023 / 2024
- Thread starter Hobo Hilton
- Start date
RE - 2006(ish) bubble burst and lots of people lost their butts.
"This" feels so much different than 2006 or prior recessions............
Just my gut feeling
My gut feeling is right the majority of the time.... That's why I am still alive
A big IDK at this time.
Hobo
I steadily get offers to HELOC against my home equity at the new improved loan rates? Do they think I am crazy? Assume plenty are doing it though. Waiting on the deals on "toys" like side by sides and fancy hunting rifles (low round count or unfired)!
Starting to see quite a few side by sides and other toys popping up for sale. Prices are still little high on most, but they will get hungry eventually.
As vaccination rates rose and cases and hospitalization rates fell, companies like Disney looked to bring staff back to offices and return to a more normalized pre-pandemic work environment. Iger’s four-day-per-week stipulation is relatively strict compared with other large companies,
Disney shares have fallen about 40% over the past year.
www.cnbc.com
Disney shares have fallen about 40% over the past year.
Bob Iger tells Disney employees they must return to the office four days a week
Disney CEO Bob Iger told hybrid employees on Monday they must return to corporate offices four days a week starting March 1.
Real estate prices in my area are not dropping. More homes are coming on the market, but nothing is selling. A lot of vacant land has been on the market for quite some time, but the only ones that are selling are lots that are $70K or less.
Another one "Behind the Curve".... There will be many more during 2023. This is the result of listening to excess propaganda.
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“With perfect hindsight, looking back, we should have done more,” CEO Brian Armstrong told CNBC in a phone interview. “The best you can do is react quickly once information becomes available, and that’s what we’re doing in this case.”
www.cnbc.com
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“With perfect hindsight, looking back, we should have done more,” CEO Brian Armstrong told CNBC in a phone interview. “The best you can do is react quickly once information becomes available, and that’s what we’re doing in this case.”
Coinbase to slash 20% of workforce in second major round of job cuts
CEO Brian Armstrong pointed to more pressure on the crypto sector thanks to "unscrupulous actors in the industry."
I’m not convinced that this crypto issue isn’t going to lead to a contagion of failing crypto’s that fail over into the banking system.Another one "Behind the Curve".... There will be many more during 2023. This is the result of listening to excess propaganda.
_________
“With perfect hindsight, looking back, we should have done more,” CEO Brian Armstrong told CNBC in a phone interview. “The best you can do is react quickly once information becomes available, and that’s what we’re doing in this case.”
Coinbase to slash 20% of workforce in second major round of job cuts
CEO Brian Armstrong pointed to more pressure on the crypto sector thanks to "unscrupulous actors in the industry."
In the old days we called this "fall out" with a ripple effect... EVERYTHING is now so intertwined (worldwide) with the Internet and instant communication that a hiccup happening on the other side of the world is now felt in a nanosecond.
Help me out with this one. "Money" never evaporates, it may go from one form to another. I'm hearing about all the losses in crypto. Those dollars did not evaporate, where did they go? This is not like buying a new car and driving it off the dealer's lot and it suddenly loses value... Crypto dollars did not simply get depreciated. Someone is holding the money.
Am I looking at this wrong?
The same dumbass relatives of mine are saying the same dumbass things about how it's going to "go on forever". I've been screaming at my father to sell the real estate he (and I) own in Arizona and he's refusing to do it because he thinks it'll just keep going up and up. I guess we can always sell when it's worth 10k per lot instead of 100k
Eventually crypto is going to win out, but not in a good way because what we're inevitably stuck with will be a CBDC. Bad centralized money always creates an underground market in specie. That will probably be based on a decentralized Blockchain since specie is hard to move. But, since they've finally beat the dead horse dollar enough, they're going to have to milk it some more by making sure they beat down the crypto as well, until the ol switcheroo can take place; by God won't we be grateful for their quick and immediate solution?
Signature Bank Stock Gets Downgraded. Even Reducing Crypto Exposure Can Hurt. -- Barrons.com
11:31 am ET January 10, 2023 (Dow Jones) PrintBy Jack Denton
Even reducing exposure to cryptocurrencies can hurt. Signature Bank has learned that lesson the hard way -- again -- with a downgrade as analysts say the bank's decision to walk away from digital assets will have a big impact on profitability.
Shares in Signature Bank (ticker: SBNY) fell 1.7% to $113.80 Tuesday after a team of analysts led by Ken Usdin downgraded the stock to Hold from Buy, and slashed their target price to $124 from $185.
After a year of crypto chaos -- with the total market capitalization of digital assets falling to $850 billion from nearly $3 trillion in November 2021 -- Signature recently detailed plans to distance itself from a space rife with business failures and allegations of fraud.
This is what I was referring to earlier. CBDC is definitely coming, but the losses associated with crypto are only helping to bring it about faster. Im not really looking at the crypto losses, I'm more looking at the investors and banks who put USD money into these companies.
Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
www.bloomberg.com
Crypto exchange FTX owes nearly $3.1bn to 50 biggest creditors
Company says cryptocurrency allegedly stolen in collapse being transferred to other exchanges
www.theguardian.com
Crypto Miners Aren't Giving Lenders Their Money Back | Live Bitcoin News
Many lenders have given crypto miners money to stay afloat, but given the state of the industry, they aren't receiving the money back.
www.livebitcoinnews.com
BUT THEN, in the interest of equal time, there is this:
BlackRock Gives Bankrupt Bitcoin Miner Core Scientific New $17M Loan
BlackRock, which already was largest shareholder of the miner, also had $37.9 million secured convertible notes with Core.
Right, but everyone's doing it in regards to almost every security because they're usually not buying actual coins but dealing in derivatives. DD usually isn't a thing. CBDC gonna come faster than 911 in white neighborhoods.
Jerome Powell made the choice to become "Politicized".... Look at where that got the working middle class......
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“The absence of direct political control over our decisions allows us to take these necessary measures without considering short-term political factors,” he added.
www.cnbc.com
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“The absence of direct political control over our decisions allows us to take these necessary measures without considering short-term political factors,” he added.
Powell says Fed might have to make unpopular decisions to stabilize prices
The central bank leader noted that stabilizing prices requires making tough decisions that can be unpopular politically.
Blackrock is "playing with other people's money / pensions"....This is what I was referring to earlier. CBDC is definitely coming, but the losses associated with crypto are only helping to bring it about faster. Im not really looking at the crypto losses, I'm more looking at the investors and banks who put USD money into these companies.
Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
www.bloomberg.com
Crypto exchange FTX owes nearly $3.1bn to 50 biggest creditors
Company says cryptocurrency allegedly stolen in collapse being transferred to other exchanges
"One of the big problems – according to Matthew Kimmel, a digital asset analyst at crypto firm Coin Shares – is that many of these lenders did not bother to really check and see if the companies they were giving money to were solid enough. He said: There hasn’t necessarily been the best due diligence on whether a miner was credit worthy or not."Crypto Miners Aren't Giving Lenders Their Money Back | Live Bitcoin News
Many lenders have given crypto miners money to stay afloat, but given the state of the industry, they aren't receiving the money back.
BUT THEN, in the interest of equal time, there is this:
BlackRock Gives Bankrupt Bitcoin Miner Core Scientific New $17M Loan
BlackRock, which already was largest shareholder of the miner, also had $37.9 million secured convertible notes with Core.au.finance.yahoo.com
The risk is with the individuals that put their money and trust in the pension fund managers, etc.
Curious to know how much of their own money the Blackrock Board of Directors have in these funds.
BlackRock, Inc. - Governance - Board of Directors
Should be easy enough to look up in their fillings. Doesn't matter though as they get the bailouts while those pensioners don't. The public pays thrice when they lose their assets, their taxes paid go to the bailed execs, and then inflation hits them from the fed money printed. Those BOD have zero risk.
My thought is that much of this “money” is created out of thin air by the modern equivalent of side show magicians. Like FTX, it’s foam that melts away and leaves little behind but broken dreams and despair.
Hard to beat that Gold Eagle in the gun safe
Paul Adolph Volcker Jr. is chuckling.... He wrote the book on reducing inflation. Too bad Jerome Powell did not read it.
Looks like Michelle read it.
www.cnbc.com
Looks like Michelle read it.
Fed's Bowman says there's 'a lot more work to do' to bring down inflation
Bowman said Tuesday she expects more interest rate increases ahead, with higher rates to prevail for a while until inflation is subdued.
www.cnbc.com
Wells Fargo is distancing itself from the upcoming train wreck... Probably a wise move.
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As banks stepped back from home loans after the disaster that was the early 2000s housing bubble, nonbank players including Rocket Mortgage quickly filled the void. But these newer players aren’t as closely regulated as the banks are, and industry critics say that could expose consumers to pitfalls. Today, Wells Fargo is the third-biggest mortgage lender after Rocket and United Wholesale Mortgage.
www.cnbc.com
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As banks stepped back from home loans after the disaster that was the early 2000s housing bubble, nonbank players including Rocket Mortgage quickly filled the void. But these newer players aren’t as closely regulated as the banks are, and industry critics say that could expose consumers to pitfalls. Today, Wells Fargo is the third-biggest mortgage lender after Rocket and United Wholesale Mortgage.
Wells Fargo, once the No. 1 player in mortgages, is stepping back from the housing market
It's the latest, and perhaps most significant, strategic shift that CEO Charlie Scharf has undertaken since joining Wells Fargo in late 2019.
I said this awhile back and seeing it play out:
There are some foreign markets / countries that will pull ahead of America as 2023 continues on. Why ?
Because they are not bankrupting themselves like America is doing.
Chart below - S&P 500 (SPX) in brown, Australia (ASX) in blue and Japan (Nikkei) in black
There are some foreign markets / countries that will pull ahead of America as 2023 continues on. Why ?
Because they are not bankrupting themselves like America is doing.
Chart below - S&P 500 (SPX) in brown, Australia (ASX) in blue and Japan (Nikkei) in black
The Buy Now, Pay Later Bubble Is About to Burst
Many Gen Zers have rejected traditional credit in favor of new-age layaway programs, which are riskier than they may seem.
www.theatlantic.com
Equable Institute Analysis: U.S. Public Pension Funds Did Not Recover Funded Ratio Losses in Q4
Today, Equable Institute released a year end update to its State of Pensions 2022 report. The analysis finds the aggregate funded ratio for U.S. state and local retirement systems declined from 83.9% in 2021 to 77.3% in 2022, based on available data through December 31st, 2022. Equable Institute...
World Bank, stating the obvious
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The adjustment was led by a significant downgrade to its prospects for the U.S. economy — it now forecasts 0.5% growth from an earlier projection of 2.4%.
The World Bank cut its growth outlook for China for 2023 from 5.2% to 4.3%, Japan from 1.3% to 1% , and Europe and Central Asia from 1.5% to 0.1%.
www.cnbc.com
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The adjustment was led by a significant downgrade to its prospects for the U.S. economy — it now forecasts 0.5% growth from an earlier projection of 2.4%.
The World Bank cut its growth outlook for China for 2023 from 5.2% to 4.3%, Japan from 1.3% to 1% , and Europe and Central Asia from 1.5% to 0.1%.
World Bank makes big cut to its 2023 growth outlook, says globe is 'perilously close' to recession
The World Bank slashed its global growth forecasts from projections it made in mid-2022 on the back of what it sees as broadly worsening economic conditions.
Pretty steady stream of layoff's happening...
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In an email to employees on Wednesday, Verily CEO Stephen Gillett said the company will lay off 15% of its staff in a restructuring move, as it strives for financial independence from parent company Alphabet
It’s the first known layoff to hit the Google parent company following a wave of industry layoffs and fears of a recession. Although Google has so far avoided the widespread job cuts that have hit other tech companies like Meta, employees have grown anxious if they could be next, CNBC has reported.
www.cnbc.com
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In an email to employees on Wednesday, Verily CEO Stephen Gillett said the company will lay off 15% of its staff in a restructuring move, as it strives for financial independence from parent company Alphabet
It’s the first known layoff to hit the Google parent company following a wave of industry layoffs and fears of a recession. Although Google has so far avoided the widespread job cuts that have hit other tech companies like Meta, employees have grown anxious if they could be next, CNBC has reported.
Alphabet to cut staff of health sciences unit Verily by 15%
It's the first known layoff to hit the Google parent company in the current tech downturn.
www.cnbc.com
I laughed at this partPretty steady stream of layoff's happening...
____________
In an email to employees on Wednesday, Verily CEO Stephen Gillett said the company will lay off 15% of its staff in a restructuring move, as it strives for financial independence from parent company Alphabet
It’s the first known layoff to hit the Google parent company following a wave of industry layoffs and fears of a recession. Although Google has so far avoided the widespread job cuts that have hit other tech companies like Meta, employees have grown anxious if they could be next, CNBC has reported.
Alphabet to cut staff of health sciences unit Verily by 15%
It's the first known layoff to hit the Google parent company in the current tech downturn.
"It also comes as Alphabet looks for ways to cut costs amid recision concerns and rapid hiring."
- author also misspelled recession. that ol F7 spell check is sure hard to use.
I had a professor who would have slides with misspelled words. I asked him who was responsible for hitting F7 and getting rid of those RED underlined words. sighs
You noticed that "rapid hiring". That is why this recession is different from all of the previous ones...
Other recessions had a long period of "leveling out", moving employees, part time employees, lucrative early retirement package, consolidating satellite offices, etc.....
A year ago, somewhere on this site, some of us called the onset rapidity "momentum"... This recession had much more momentum than previous one's.
The, so called, experts, the FED Reserve, career politicians, Tic Toc,, etc all glossed over the momentum. Jerome Powell sat on his hands calling it transitional.
Now the new norm is to hire one week and fire the next week.... A knee jerk reaction.....
When this starts happening at your local convenience store, NAPA store, Costco and public schools.... There will be some panic attacks.
JMHO
sometimes,
companies over hire, say they over hired,
then fire their
- old timers
- high wage earners (usually older peeps)
- a few young people, (enough to make it look like the company wasn't targeting a certain age group)
Unless I misunderstood the articles usage of "rapid hiring" during a recession. I call bs; just an HR smoke and mirrors to laying off certain people, while protecting the company's rear.
Been waiting to see if BlackRock was going the same as the other's.... Got my answer.
www.cnn.com
BlackRock is cutting 500 jobs as Wall Street layoffs continue | CNN Business
BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, is cutting about 500 jobs following a period of rapid hiring.
www.cnn.com
The takeaway: Investors seem to keep forgetting a cardinal market rule: Don’t fight the Fed.
”The expectation with this week’s Consumer Price Index is for further easing of inflation pressures. Anything less than broad-based improvement will rattle investors’ nerves and keep the Fed active,” said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate. Bets that the Fed will soon pivot away from elevated interest rates, even as officials say that they won’t, could mean more market volatility lies ahead.
”The expectation with this week’s Consumer Price Index is for further easing of inflation pressures. Anything less than broad-based improvement will rattle investors’ nerves and keep the Fed active,” said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate. Bets that the Fed will soon pivot away from elevated interest rates, even as officials say that they won’t, could mean more market volatility lies ahead.
eggs and food are my measure of inflation and health of the economy..
people might roast me for saying that... but in today's economy; that roast is costing 200% more
people might roast me for saying that... but in today's economy; that roast is costing 200% more
Simple and straightforward. We dehydrated a lot of eggs, but I don't want to cut into them yet.eggs and food are my measure of inflation and health of the economy..
people might roast me for saying that... but in today's economy; that roast is costing 200% more
I bought 40lbs of dehydrated eggs; a few years ago. Can't get an over easy egg from powder.
I'm about ready to buy some chickens, but, that opens up a whole new can of worms.
HOAs don't like chickens. A big fk off to anyone that says 'move'; because saying 'move' is always easier said than done.
I bought 40lbs of dehydrated eggs; a few years ago. Can't get an over easy egg from powder.
I'm about ready to buy some chickens, but, that opens up a whole new can of worms.
HOAs don't like chickens. A big fk off to anyone that says 'move'; because saying 'move' is always easier said than done.
Never really understood that. Had chickens for a while they are not that bad. Keep the pen clean, no rooster and there is no noise. They will kill the grass where they are but who cares.
The issue is chicken food, big hoopla around tractor supply chicken feed, so there is issues with that if you can't let them free range. They do a fantastic job with bugs and really like ticks.
Mine burned down their coup a few years ago and we have not replaced them. They are a bit of work.
Established companies used COVID, etc. to reduce head counts - amazingly, the layoffs impacted a lot of older, senior workers who were asked to sign a "no sue for ageism" document if they wanted the severance check. Then, these established companies hired a surge of younger, diverse "Talent". Padded their ESG scores.
What the hell did you do to your chickens that they decided self-immolation was the only way out? You been hanging out with Bender and decide to go yard bird instead of pigeon?
Find someone you can "share crop" chickens with.... They have a place but due to age, work, travel they can't tend to the chickens daily... You cover 1/2 the expense and cover the days they are gone. Get your foot in the door... Not a whole hell of a lot to "chickens"....I bought 40lbs of dehydrated eggs; a few years ago. Can't get an over easy egg from powder.
I'm about ready to buy some chickens, but, that opens up a whole new can of worms.
HOAs don't like chickens. A big fk off to anyone that says 'move'; because saying 'move' is always easier said than done.
Similar to a community garden. Like it or not, we are all headed in that direction.... think local.
Don't believe a word of this propaganda... Look at the "window" of information. The months that drop off their radar were high inflation... Eventually, enough months will drop off to where their numbers look great... Pick a historical date and don't let it fall off the back of the wagon.... That is a true indicator of inflation.
www.cnbc.com
Consumer prices fell 0.1% in December, in line with expectations from economists
The consumer price index was expected to decrease 0.1% on a monthly basis and increase 6.5% from a year ago in December, according to Dow Jones.
United States - 10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate - 2023 Data 2024 Forecast 2003 Historical
United States - 10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate was 2.23% in January of 2023, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - 10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate reached a record high of 3.02 in April of 2022 and a record low of 0.04 in November of 2008. Trading...
tradingeconomics.com
No surprise there........... Back to the rice farm they go.... Invest in Water BuffaloZeroHedge
ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zerowww.zerohedge.com
2023 will become a game of "Musical Chairs" for the young job hoppers... When the music stops in September those will not have the resources to buy a job.
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www.cnbc.com
_____________
96% of workers are looking for a new job in 2023:
96% of workers are looking for a new job in 2023, poll says: What to know before you job hop
A whopping 96% of workers are looking for a new position in 2023, largely in search of better pay, according to a recent report by Monster.com.
www.cnbc.com
Thoughts from another Old Timer:
survivalblog.com
Economics & Investing: JWR's Predictions for 2023.
Economics & Investing: JWR's Predictions for 2023. As a survivalist or prepper, you will have an advantage in 2023 and the turbulent remainder of the 2020s.
survivalblog.com
need better pay, because inflation, food costs, gas, etc... ARE kicking everyone's ass2023 will become a game of "Musical Chairs" for the young job hoppers... When the music stops in September those will not have the resources to buy a job.
_____________
96% of workers are looking for a new job in 2023:
96% of workers are looking for a new job in 2023, poll says: What to know before you job hop
A whopping 96% of workers are looking for a new position in 2023, largely in search of better pay, according to a recent report by Monster.com.
Thanks to Joe, everyone took about a 40% pay decrease
Just stop spending - not rocket science. We have to live to a budget. Or, tax EVERY American not just the middle class - a flat tax for all Americans and then cut IRS by 90% for additional savings.
As the recession takes hold there seems to be more used cars on the market... A lot of them were repaired with cheap parts to simply get them sold. Doing some repairs to my Ford F-250. Clutch slave cylinder on the left is Ford OEM and the one on the right is the best quality after market I could find. OEM is twice as expensive as aftermarket.
I removed an after market. It lasted about half as long as an OEM.
This is what "We the People" will be up against this year... People will be trying to get by with a used car purchase. Many times the previous repairs (to make it saleable) were done with cheap parts. Let the buyer beware.
I removed an after market. It lasted about half as long as an OEM.
This is what "We the People" will be up against this year... People will be trying to get by with a used car purchase. Many times the previous repairs (to make it saleable) were done with cheap parts. Let the buyer beware.
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