Problem is hardly anyone is “innocent.”
If you’re “innocent” then you wouldn’t be on trial in a courtroom in the first place. Were you justified is another matter.
Assuming no bias and the judge is strictly by the book, if you did ANYTHING wrong, something a jury would understand given a circumstance, then you will be guilty if a prosecutor does a half decent job. Of course I’m being vague because all cases are different.
However, judges are biased. Most of them were, and know the current prosecutors. They all work for the same district court. Your buddy over simplifies the law, that alone is reason enough to roll the dice on a jury.
Criminal law is a lot of things, simple is not one.