Attrition has always been a Russian strategy, correct?Russia has a population of 180 million vs Ukraine's 40 million. Russia's youth is till in Russia while much of the Ukraine's left for Europe.
Russia also has intact conventional arms factories staffed and working and the world's largest raw minerals production. It also has interior LOC and a very good transport system, excellent schools, and most Russians are still very patriotic.
The War is in the attrition phase and Russia is attriting Ukrainian manpower.
Ukraine has not the manpower or equipment to envelop the Russian salient. That would require four combat brigade teams with all the tanks, mech inf, attack helicopters, artillery, and CAS, as well as the logistics to make that happen - and an assault into cross wise rising terrain.
Instead they are being ground down and dancing to Russia's tune.
I'm not sure the West or Ukraine has a winnable strategy as this point. They did from summer of 22 to winter of 23 but the lack of an end game has meant that window is closed.
As far as I can see the only clear thinking up to this point has been taking the West Bank of the Dnieper which allows Ukraine to control the Black Sea and the air above it. I think Zelensky is now captive to the West's strategic aims and not his.
Pútín doesn't have to make gains right now. He simply has to do just enough to hold what he has and keep grinding it out... until Uke folds or to get people to the negotiation table.
Mike