TSLA in with a beat and $2.8B FCF.
Q4 14.7% operating margin
Q4 30.6% GAAP automotive margin (29.2% ex-credits)
Q4 14.7% operating margin
Q4 30.6% GAAP automotive margin (29.2% ex-credits)
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- Thread starter pmclaine
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Say you have $100k in cash you don’t know what to do with…. What are you buying right now?
That is me and I am looking to add to TSLA, ENPH, PLTR, TDOC, INTEL, BEAM, and NVTA. I am still not buying though, I think the dip will continue to dip. Everything that I have held in cash contributions or sales will be entering in March regardless of where the market is at. My other cash position will be used for opportunity purchases.
My ROTH will be purchasing TLSA, GOOG, AMZN, ENPH, AAPL, MSFT, PLTR, INTC, AMD, PYPL, SQ, and NVDA.
American Eagle gold coins (1 os, 1/2 oz, 1/10 oz), American Eagle silver coins (1 oz, 1/2 oz, 1/10 oz)
Junk silver dimes (Bartering currency)
Solar power (small, sustainable set up as back up power)
Stock in the "Miner's Group", a mix... Copper Lithium, aluminum (Not gold)
Log truck of firewood logs
To qualify my answer, this is me, my environment and filling in where I am light. Other's will have a different wish list.
My unfinished '80 FJ40 restoration, '74 TR6, '09 Indian, and several gun projects. Or........
S&P 500 index fund.
Listening to the Q4 call, people still don't know how much FSD is going to change auto industry. Daddy Elon playing the long game.
I love how he said all that about FSD then went on to say how Optimus will likely be more valuable then automotive and FSD.
Visionary
Full Self-Driving Computer Installations | Tesla Support
While no Tesla vehicles are fully autonomous today and require active driver supervision, the FSD computer is capable of delivering intelligent performance and control to enable a new level of safety and autonomy, without impacting cost or range. Learn more about FSD computer installation.
solar power looks to me to be the most valuable in that list followed by firewood.
Inflation rate at 7% in the last month of 2021.
GDP at 6.9% to close out 2021.
Treading water.....
tradingeconomics.com
www.cnbc.com
GDP at 6.9% to close out 2021.
Treading water.....
United States Inflation Rate
Inflation Rate in the United States decreased to 3.20 percent in October from 3.70 percent in September of 2023. This page provides - United States Inflation Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.
tradingeconomics.com
GDP grew at a 6.9% pace to close out 2021, stronger than expected despite omicron spread
Gross domestic product accelerated at a 6.9% annualized pace in the fourth quarter, well ahead of the 5.5% estimate.
I spent many years traveling and building INTC plants.... Learned a lot "looking from the inside out"..... Lot's of retired INTC long time employees were given the Golden Handshake..... Replaced by Green Cards from India..... Muslim prayer rooms on most campuses.
Very timely, nicely worded summary of where we are today:
“Commodities are a late cycle hedge,” according to Jeff Currie, the global head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. “They’re the best hedge against rate hikes, inflationary pressures,” he said in an interview with Bloomberg TV on Wednesday, restating that the bank’s base case is for a supercycle that includes the entire commodity complex.
ca.finance.yahoo.com
“Commodities are a late cycle hedge,” according to Jeff Currie, the global head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. “They’re the best hedge against rate hikes, inflationary pressures,” he said in an interview with Bloomberg TV on Wednesday, restating that the bank’s base case is for a supercycle that includes the entire commodity complex.
Record Commodity Prices Bolster Case for Fed’s Hawkish Tilt
(Bloomberg) -- Commodity prices soared to an all-time high, underscoring the inflation concerns that prompted Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to open the door to faster rate hikes to cool the hottest price rises in almost 40 years.Most Read from BloombergPowell Backs March Liftoff, Won’t...
Being we started discussing solar power.... I went and paid visits to two of my friends that have solar this morning. Both have been into solar for several years. One moved from off grid onto the grid but set up solar as partial power and back up power.... Both told me "if they had to do it all over again" they would buy a commercial generator and very large propane storage tanks. Each said for what their solar setups have cost, they could have bought two generators and two large propane tanks and had them filled. I'll admit that is a very small survey but it is specific to my AO.
Solar is coming down in cost and will continue to do so. Always wise to get quotes and look at other ROI options.
Added to TDOC and BEAM; pricing looks good on both to nibble.
Pull up a comfortable chair and watch the progression... If you want to fast forward and see what your area will look line in 20 years.... Bring up Intel Ronler Acres, Hillsboro, OR...... Always interesting to watch a boom town in the making.
At 70 years old, doubtful I would see it paid for. No complaints about propane... #1 complaint is batteries.... Now, there are some solar systems being advertised as operating without batteries... That may interest me.
IDK... I have to dig a little deeper. There are some solar set up's in remote area that pump water into a cattle trough as long as the panels provide power. When sun goes down the pump stops. Maybe that is what people referred to.
I'm assuming we are talking about off-grid vs grid-assist. I bought 112Ah of storage for $2000. Not nearly enough for full off-grid running, but enough to get by and I do have a small generator I can run if/when necessary for just multi-day outages.
Here's a tip..... Go out near the future INTC plant and buy 5 - 10 acres in the county, not the city. Turn it into a low budget RV park with water, sewer and 50 amp hook up's. Set up a high speed wifi in the park that camper's pay for. Set up a propane fill station in the park or have the local propane distributor come through the park and fill tanks. Have a 24 hour open laundromat. Put down gravel for the roads and paths bring in a nice portable building and set your wife up as the park manager. The traveler's coming to build that plant will pay top rates if they are close to the job, can wash clothes on their time off, communicate with family and friends from the comfort of their RV in the evening... Ask me how I know... LOL
Correct me if I am wrong, but aren't the resources and the upkeep needed on a solar panel always going to keep you in the red on energy conservation overall? I want solar and wind to work, but I feel there is more energy being used to produce and upkeep these items than what energy is being created from the sun/wind.
Goat
Storage probably has the lowest life span, but if "properly" maintained, depending on how often you use them (load shifting, off-grid vs backup), should last up to 10 years. But, after 10 years, technology to replace them will probably be pretty cheap for the same or better capacity.
The panels themselves are warrantied for 30+ years. Mine actually have a production guarantee for 30 years at 85%+(?) or so.
The microinverters are warrantied for only 10 years, so if they go bad after that, it's still pretty cheap (and easy) to replace individual units..( < $200 each).
I've seen some people publishing long term performance of their solar systems on the home scale, and they all say maintenance is minimal and on track or already paid for themselves. Nice thing about micro-inverters or optimizers is a bad/poor panel won't drag down your entire array.
If in the city, fire code now pretty much means you have to have at least Rapid-shutdown anyway, and optimizer doesn't add much.
Doing DC high power to an inverter probably has more room for failures and complexity/danger of install, but you need that for off-grid/hybrid operation.
Probably should move this back over to the solar thread
Let me know if you want a breakdown in my costs for DIY.
The panels themselves are warrantied for 30+ years. Mine actually have a production guarantee for 30 years at 85%+(?) or so.
The microinverters are warrantied for only 10 years, so if they go bad after that, it's still pretty cheap (and easy) to replace individual units..( < $200 each).
I've seen some people publishing long term performance of their solar systems on the home scale, and they all say maintenance is minimal and on track or already paid for themselves. Nice thing about micro-inverters or optimizers is a bad/poor panel won't drag down your entire array.
If in the city, fire code now pretty much means you have to have at least Rapid-shutdown anyway, and optimizer doesn't add much.
Doing DC high power to an inverter probably has more room for failures and complexity/danger of install, but you need that for off-grid/hybrid operation.
Probably should move this back over to the solar thread
Let me know if you want a breakdown in my costs for DIY.
You may be right about the solar thread.... IDKStorage probably has the lowest life span, but if "properly" maintained, depending on how often you use them (load shifting, off-grid vs backup), should last up to 10 years. But, after 10 years, technology to replace them will probably be pretty cheap for the same or better capacity.
The panels themselves are warrantied for 30+ years. Mine actually have a production guarantee for 30 years at 85%+(?) or so.
The microinverters are warrantied for only 10 years, so if they go bad after that, it's still pretty cheap (and easy) to replace individual units..( < $200 each).
I've seen some people publishing long term performance of their solar systems on the home scale, and they all say maintenance is minimal and on track or already paid for themselves. Nice thing about micro-inverters or optimizers is a bad/poor panel won't drag down your entire array.
If in the city, fire code now pretty much means you have to have at least Rapid-shutdown anyway, and optimizer doesn't add much.
Doing DC high power to an inverter probably has more room for failures and complexity/danger of install, but you need that for off-grid/hybrid operation.
Probably should move this back over to the solar thread
Question - If you are an off grid person with panels / controller / batteries / etc and you pulled your Tesla into the garage with an empty battery.. Would your basic system charge up the car over night ? I am just trying to gain some personal knowledge for the future.
Yes, if your storage has the capacity.
My inverter will transfer up to 40A until the battery/storage hits the shutoff voltage.
If you have enough storage battery capacity it should work otherwise you'll just get a partial charge. Inverter will use excess solar the next day to recharge batteries.
My inverter will transfer up to 40A until the battery/storage hits the shutoff voltage.
If you have enough storage battery capacity it should work otherwise you'll just get a partial charge. Inverter will use excess solar the next day to recharge batteries.
An awful lot changes in technology over the span of a decade. Being grid tied with solar Would be critical to me.
Most residential solar arrays I have seen in my area area woefully under paneled.
I’ll take a pic of a guy that , in my opinion has a solid start.
As with most things. More is better and once you have your setup adding panels is not difficult. Excess energy generated can be sold back to the electric company.
IMO.
I could be completely wrong as well. Lol
Expansion may have two issues. My inverter side is already maxed out so to add a string, I'd need to add another inverter.
On my micro-inverter side, I'd need a new power line run since there is 20a max on my wiring. Your panels/combiners may already be close to max amps.
You could plan for future expansion by running extra power lines and over-sizing your panels/wiring when installed.
Lastly, space. I could only add maybe 10 more panels on my roof layout that actually face the sun.
On my micro-inverter side, I'd need a new power line run since there is 20a max on my wiring. Your panels/combiners may already be close to max amps.
You could plan for future expansion by running extra power lines and over-sizing your panels/wiring when installed.
Lastly, space. I could only add maybe 10 more panels on my roof layout that actually face the sun.
In software development we call that "a feature"
I might be able to pull the first one off but the second is a bit personal for some guy walking up off the street.
I know what it is invested in. I only have so many options, since it's what I'm available to choose. The options are groups of different investments...I can't pick and choose which ones of those I want individually, it's a group buy thing.
Yea I understand how they work. You need to read through the prospectus for all your options and maybe have a second set of eyes put on it.
I have looked at a few 401k's for friends of mine who think I know what I am talking about(hah, jokes on them). Not to give them investment advice, but just to see if there was a better option for them vs. the target date fund which is what most seem to default into. I would say MOST people with 401k's dont know they have different investment options inside their 401k. MOST people also dont look at the fee structure...and, gee, its funny, that the target date fund, which is what most 401k's default you into, also has ABSURD fee's...funny how that works isnt it.
MOST 401k's have a cash option.
MOST 401k's have something like an S&P, DJIA or NASDAQ index tracker.
MOST 401k's have some type of bond fund.
MOST 401k's have target date funds(which is generally the default investment vehicle).
Then you start to get into small cap, large cap, international, etc...
Im in a small cap fund right now. On winning days it almost doubles the S&P/DOW... on losing days it also generally doubles the market... LOL...
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I'm not an investment expert, as pissed off as I am, my investment is still +33% of what I put in...in reality I only put in 50% of that, since the company matched it. But, since it was up over 100% of total investment, I should have sold it when it was high. It's play money.
The investors / stock holders / fund manager's did not hear what they wanted to hear. What they got was the truth from Elon. I'm not a big follower so a lot IDK
I didn't hear a plan for capital expansion and new product introduction sufficient to support the current <checks notes; laughs in Pets.com> $850 billion market cap. All I heard is vague promises about FSD for the ninth straight year without any clarity of how this would create value for Tesla.
But the market for TSLA can remain irrational much longer than I can remain solvent
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I guess you didn't listen. They announced that they are scouting for two new locations and intend to announce them this year. Growth will comfortably be above 50% in 2022 (hint: they don't need massive capital expansion as zero factories are at capacity).I didn't hear a plan for capital expansion and me product introduction sufficient to support the current <checks notes; laughs in Pets.com> $850 billion market cap. All I heard is vague promises about FSD for the ninth straight year without any clarity of how this would create value for Tesla.
But the market for TSLA can remain irrational much longer than I can remain solvent
FSD is making significant improvements with each additional release; see below for one user's data tracking.
Seems to reason that Elon's comment on FSD being safer than humans this year is plausible.
Plus you have a list of 2022 catalysts...
- $12K FSD (increase of $2,000) (done)
- 4Q EPS/production road map (done)
- WS raises EPS/PTs (higher price targets rolling out each day)
- Austin/Berlin open
- Investment-grade credit rating (I believe they were just bumped up with investment-grade coming soon)
- Bidens $8K EV Credit
- FSD full release
- 4680 scale production
- will likely generate more than $10B in FCF FY2022
- Dojo
- insurance expands to 80% of US customers that could sign up for Tesla insurance
The s-curve is just starting...
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I've got an acquaintance who opened short positions with Tesla and Netflix about a month ago. Didn't think much of it when we talked simply b/c growth/tech are not in my focus. Only so much time in the day and my focus is on value/div. Ran into him yesterday at the grocery and he closed them out last week and showed me his projected cash pile from settlement. All I could do was bust out laughing and give him a high five. Let's just say the numbers he throws around are mind boggling to me. Was a quick 2 minute conversation and I'm going to see him this week and will dig deeper into exactly what he saw that led him to initiate short positions. He follows one of these Elliot Wave market sentiment guys and I have to say the more I see it the more I say wow. He said something like 80% of all short money has been profitable in January. He put SARK on my radar screen last fall which shorts Cathie Wood's ARKK and I only wish I'd of done it sooner. I did end up putting some cash in SARK for a short time b/f deploying recently.I didn't hear a plan for capital expansion and new product introduction sufficient to support the current <checks notes; laughs in Pets.com> $850 billion market cap. All I heard is vague promises about FSD for the ninth straight year without any clarity of how this would create value for Tesla.
But the market for TSLA can remain irrational much longer than I can remain solvent
Enphase Stock Jumps. It Has Solved the Solar Supply-Chain Problem.
The solar specialist posts record quarterly revenue, sending the stock sharply higher.
www.barrons.com
$163 and climbing. Sad that I didn't buy more.
I've, somewhat, followed ENPH since it was mentioned here... Some interesting price moves recently. Could be a really good Dead Cat Bounce... IDK... Could just be some plays similar to what happened with Game Stop. They linked up with an installer in California, they advertise onboard controllers and have some patents (I don't know what they are). But we are back to the battery (storage) arguments. Kind of like they have reinvented the wheel. Perhaps just a more flashy wheel with more promotional things. Anyone here have an ENPH setup in their home ?Enphase Stock Jumps. It Has Solved the Solar Supply-Chain Problem.
The solar specialist posts record quarterly revenue, sending the stock sharply higher.
$163 and climbing. Sad that I didn't buy more.
I'm currently installing a system that's 1/3 Enphase microinverters. If I wasn't doing hybrid, it would without a doubt be 100% Enphase.
wanted to post earlier... I don't believe we have hit a bottom in the market. I think that will come either in March/April/Q1 Earnings or after our third rate hike which will likely put us over 1%.
