Stock Market

[NoDopes]

On the other side of the isle,

Payrolls rose 311,000 in February, more than expected, showing solid growth

Nonfarm payrolls were expected to increase by 225,000 in February, while the unemployment rate was projected to hold at 3.4%, according to Dow Jones.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Lightning8]

View attachment 8093067

What does "unemployed" mean now? Definitions of seemingly obvious words get redefined. New articles have suggested there are approximately 7 million "prime working age males" out of work force (age 29-54 or such). There are too many safety nets and people do not NEED to work anymore. The Fed keeps raising interest rates because the Fed says unemployment numbers too low yet "unemployment" is people actively looking for work.

 

[S3th]

What does "unemployed" mean now? Definitions of seemingly obvious words get redefined. New articles have suggested there are approximately 7 million "prime working age males" out of work force (age 29-54 or such). There are too many safety nets and people do not NEED to work anymore. The Fed keeps raising interest rates because the Fed says unemployment numbers too low yet "unemployment" is people actively looking for work.

I believe you have to be actively looking to be considered unemployed. Once you stop looking, you are taken out of the census.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Today's phrase: Get the fuck out

View attachment 8093044

The tip of the iceberg

 

[Hobo Hilton]

S3th​

What is your take on this ?

__________________

US Critical Minerals

uscriticalminerals.com

Company aims to mine rare-earth metals in the Bitterroot - Bitterroot Star

Just as the Biden administration and Congress are making major investments to expand the domestic critical minerals supply chain in the hopes of breaking our country’s dependence on China, one […]

bitterrootstar.com

 

[S3th]

I agree.

 

[S3th]

lol

 

[S3th]

of course those who banked with SVB and earned higher interest rates due to riskier lending are not going to lose anything...

 

[Nik H]

I believe you have to be actively looking to be considered unemployed. Once you stop looking, you are taken out of the census.

I believe if you are still unemployed when your benefits expire, you are off the official count as well.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

If you look at how the markets performed today.... All of the "Circus" was factored in a few weeks ago. The professionals, heavy hitters and even the smaller day traders were already positioned before the market opened. They were positioned Friday at the close.
So, once again, why was the FED Reserve, Janet Yellen and the rest of the government experts caught with their pants down and had to meet on Sunday to "save the world" ?

Theatrics....

 

[E. Bryant]

The latest inflation print:

US inflation eases but stays high, putting Fed in tough spot

U.S. consumer price increases eased slightly from January to February but still pointed to an elevated inflation rate that is posing a challenge for the Federal Reserve at a delicate moment for the financial system.

apnews.com

The range of headlines on this story is fascinating, but the bottom line is that it's still running at about 6% annualized, which is about 1.25-1.5% hotter than the current Fed rate target and 2.5% above the 10-year Treasury.

Ignoring this weekend's events, it'd seem obvious that more rate hikes would be warranted. But I'm starting to buy into the idea that the Fed caves due to political pressure (due both to the risk of systemic failures in the financial industry and the sheer cost of carrying the national debt), and that this sort of inflation becomes permanent (or at least persists until the next recession/depression).

 

[Hobo Hilton]

The latest inflation print:

US inflation eases but stays high, putting Fed in tough spot

U.S. consumer price increases eased slightly from January to February but still pointed to an elevated inflation rate that is posing a challenge for the Federal Reserve at a delicate moment for the financial system.

apnews.com

The range of headlines on this story is fascinating, but the bottom line is that it's still running at about 6% annualized, which is about 1.25-1.5% hotter than the current Fed rate target and 2.5% above the 10-year Treasury.

Ignoring this weekend's events, it'd seem obvious that more rate hikes would be warranted. But I'm starting to buy into the idea that the Fed caves due to political pressure (due both to the risk of systemic failures in the financial industry and the sheer cost of carrying the national debt), and that this sort of inflation becomes permanent (or at least persists until the next recession/depression).

When inflation drops to 1% +/- prices will not return to pre-pandemic levels. FED's are shortening the time period to the past 12 months to calculate inflation.
Extend the time period and see how things are looking.

CPI Inflation Calculator

www.bls.gov

 

[E. Bryant]

When inflation drops to 1% +/- prices will not return to pre-pandemic levels.

When inflation drops to 0%, that merely indicates that prices have stopped getting higher. It would take 2+ years of 5% deflation to get back to pre-pandemic levels. If that ever happens, so many things would break that it would make the Great Depression look like a grade school field trip. So we're not going back to the good ol' days.

 

[Cardboard55]

If you look at how the markets performed today.... All of the "Circus" was factored in a few weeks ago. The professionals, heavy hitters and even the smaller day traders were already positioned before the market opened. They were positioned Friday at the close.
So, once again, why was the FED Reserve, Janet Yellen and the rest of the government experts caught with their pants down and had to meet on Sunday to "save the world" ?

Theatrics....

If only some distraction appeared to take the spotlight off banks...

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Misleading headlines today:
Dow closes more than 300 points higher, snaps 5-day losing streak as bank shares rebound
Here is a 10 day chart for the DJIA.

 

[S3th]

I need to speak to Elon

Tesla needs to create a new financing product purposefully built for their energy loans.
1. Tesla would finance the deployment of batteries, panels, and solar roofs.
2. Tesla would underwrite these loans in a manner that once a loan is in default the system pushes all energy generated and stored back to the grid.
3. Energy sold to the grid is returned to Tesla/ABS.
4. Tesla packages these loans as an asset backed securitization w/ non-performing cash flow.
5. Tesla captures a rate differential and earns revenue on deployment.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

I need to speak to Elon

Tesla needs to create a new financing product purposefully built for their energy loans.
1. Tesla would finance the deployment of batteries, panels, and solar roofs.
2. Tesla would underwrite these loans in a manner that once a loan is in default the system pushes all energy generated and stored back to the grid.
3. Energy sold to the grid is returned to Tesla/ABS.
4. Tesla packages these loans as an asset backed securitization w/ non-performing cash flow.
5. Tesla captures a rate differential and earns revenue on deployment.

# 6 - When everything fails and the roof caves in, the US Government will put together a bail out package on a Sunday afternoon.

 

[S3th]

 

[Hobo Hilton]

From my small, out of the way vantage point I'm seeing local people picking up a few extra's when making a trip for supplies to one of the larger town's where bulk prices and transportation charges are slightly lower. Like these numbers show, it may just be an extra box of ammo, a gallon of peanut oil, replacing one tire rather than buying a set, an air filter or oil filter while at Walmart, a gallon of engine oil or a tube of grease. All discretionary, not breaking the bank.
I'll just put this on the table for opinions:

Consumer Discretionary​

The Consumer Discretionary sector is up 0.82% today, with 9 out of 11 of its underlying industries gaining. Internet & Direct Marketing Retail is the strongest industry, rallying by 2.03%. Over the last month, the Consumer Discretionary sector is higher by 2.92%.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

American's are the dumbest race on the face of this Earth.
Here is a "shuffle" going on in plain sight.
If the markets could have never been "balanced" it would be obvious how bad the financial arena is getting.
_____________________________
The index gurus are at it again. Some of the best-known stocks are getting reclassified on Friday, and that means a lot of money is going to move around.
Ever wonder why Walmart is classified as a consumer staples stock in the S&P 500, but similar retailers such as Target, Dollar General and Dollar Tree are classified as consumer discretionary stocks? A lot of other people have wondered as well.
Friday, that will change.
Target, Dollar General and Dollar Tree will move from the consumer discretionary corner of the stock market, and join Walmart as consumer staples companies.
Consumer staples will get bigger; consumer discretionary will get a little smaller.
Ever wonder why Visa, Mastercard and Paypal, which seem like they’re financials, are actually listed as Technology stocks instead?
Other people have wondered that as well.

Big changes in the S&P 500 Friday highlight the power of index providers

In a world where people buy funds that are tied to indexes, the people who determine what go into those indexes have become very powerful indeed.

www.cnbc.com

 

[S3th]

I can understand why Visa, MC, and PayPal are Technology and not Financials.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

I can understand why Visa, MC, and PayPal are Technology and not Financials.

Why ? Do any of them market computer programs or have computer chip fabs?
What is Square / Block ? They should not be there either.

SQ's position in the IT Services industry​

Block

Block is Square, Cash App, Spiral, TIDAL, TBD, and our foundational teams.

block.xyz

 

[S3th]

Why ? Do any of them market computer programs or have computer chip fabs?
What is Square / Block ?

Block

Block is Square, Cash App, Spiral, TIDAL, TBD, and our foundational teams.

block.xyz

Technology comes in many different forms and in these cases; payment networks and virtual wallets.

 

[S3th]

 

[S3th]

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Self Driver ?

 

[E. Bryant]

This is 15 years of financial history condensed down to less than two hours:



It appears to be one last attempt at an "I told you so" to the normies before all hell breaks loose.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Ford is about to break out big EV losses for the first time

Ford's reporting changes amount to the most detailed look yet by any legacy automaker into the finances behind the EV business.

www.cnbc.com

 

[devildog93]

Ford is about to break out big EV losses for the first time

Ford's reporting changes amount to the most detailed look yet by any legacy automaker into the finances behind the EV business.

www.cnbc.com

I bet they are going to take it in the rear on electric vehicles, even without considering subsidies.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

I bet they are going to take it in the rear on electric vehicles, even without considering subsidies.

 

[E. Bryant]

I bet they are going to take it in the rear on electric vehicles, even without considering subsidies.

Everyone's going to do that for a while. The question is if they can ever turn a profit.

 

[Mr.BR]

Two stocks account for over 13% of the S&P 500 for the first time since the 1970s...

As goes MSFT and AAPL, so goes America.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Two stocks account for over 13% of the S&P 500 for the first time since the 1970s...

As goes MSFT and AAPL, so goes America.

LOL........ Foreign investors who are falling for the BS from the FED Reserve, the career Politicians and the liberal news media.
Both have a ways to fall before this recession sees daylight.

 

[Mr.BR]

LOL........ Foreign investors who are falling for the BS from the FED Reserve, the career Politicians and the liberal news media.
Both have a ways to fall before this recession sees daylight.

No need for suckers Yellen doing her thing

 

[Hobo Hilton]

US Economy Has To Slow One Way Or Another -- Market Talk​

Today 6:47 PM ET (Dow Jones)Print

1847 ET -- One way or another, the US economy still needs to slow, says David Bassanese, chief economist at betashares. History suggests a US recession is likely required to ease wages pressures in the red-hot labor market and sustainably bring inflation down, he adds. Either a post-SVB tightening in financial conditions and/or more aggressive Fed action will be needed to slow the economy. If a de-facto tightening in credit conditions following SVB's collapse doesn't do the job sufficiently, the Fed will, he says. ([email protected]; @JamesGlynnWSJ)

Exclusive: JPMorgan CEO Dimon met White House's Brainard during D.C. trip -source

CEOs of major banks gathered in Washington for a two-day meeting.

www.reuters.com

Yellen says US banks shoring up liquidity to guard against runs

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that banks across the United States are worried about contagion and have been shoring up liquidity to protect themselves from runs prompted by the failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. Yellen told a Senate Appropriations subcommittee...

finance.yahoo.com

SEC Warns Coinbase of Enforcement Over Its Staking Rewards Products

The SEC's crackdown on crypto staking has hit Coinbase, one month after it fined Kraken $30 million over staking.

finance.yahoo.com

 

[Mr.BR]

They are literally saying they need to cause a loss of at least a million jobs for the economy to work out, but when it came to SVB ,due to right type of clientele it was suddenly a systemic risk that needed saving at all costs.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

They are literally saying they need to cause a loss of at least a million jobs for the economy to work out, but when it came to SVB ,due to right type of clientele it was suddenly a systemic risk that needed saving at all costs.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

• Says results will now be reported by Ford Blue (iconic gas, hybrid vehicles), Ford Model e (breakthrough EVs) and Ford Pro (commercial products, services), not by regional markets
• Believes Ford+ will produce solid growth and sustained, healthy profitability and returns by deploying new technologies, achieving higher quality, lowering costs and complexity
• Reconfirms late-2026 margin targets of 10% for company adjusted EBIT and 8% for Ford Model e – the latter driven by ambitious scaling of EV production run rates
• Points to Ford Pro as a powerful illustration of how customer-relevant, software-enabled vehicles and services will generate value across all three segments
• Reaffirms full-year 2023 adjusted EBIT guidance of $9 billion to $11 billion; provides segment-level outlooks; plans to share more information at Capital Markets Day on May 22

https://media.ford.com/content/fordmedia/fna/us/en/news/2023/03/23/_refounded_-ford-to-show-how-customer-focused-segments-will-driv.html

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Well, was EV worth losing $2 billion ?
_______________________
Ford Motor
said Thursday its electric vehicle business lost $2.1 billion last year on an operating basis, a loss that was more than offset by $10 billion in operating profit between its internal combustion and fleet businesses.
The Detroit automaker expects 2023 to unfold along similar lines, forecasting an adjusted loss of $3 billion for its EV unit, adjusted earnings of about $7 billion for its internal combustion unit, and adjusted earnings of roughly $6 billion for its fleet business.

Ford's EV business lost $2 billion in 2022, offset by big profits in fleet and legacy units

The financials are the first detailed look at EV profitability as Ford unveils a new financial reporting structure.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Since day 1, I have questioned the ethics of Square (SQ: NYSE)
_____________________
Shares of Jack Dorsey’s Block
plunged 19% after short-seller Hindenburg Research announced on Thursday that the payment company was its latest short position, alleging that the company allowed criminal activity to operate with lax controls and “highly” inflates Cash App’s transacting userbase, a key metric of performance.
The short-seller described Block’s internal systems as a ”‘Wild West’ approach to compliance.”
“Our 2-year investigation has concluded that Block has systematically taken advantage of the demographics it claims to be helping,” the short seller said in its report. The research firm said that Block’s Cash App thrived on serving “unbanked” customers.

Block shares plunge 19% after short-seller Hindenburg says Jack Dorsey’s company facilitates fraud

Block shares plunged after noted short-seller Hindenburg Research said the company's flagship Cash App facilitates crime and lacks strong compliance controls.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Lightning8]

Well, was EV worth losing $2 billion ?
_______________________
Ford Motor
said Thursday its electric vehicle business lost $2.1 billion last year on an operating basis, a loss that was more than offset by $10 billion in operating profit between its internal combustion and fleet businesses.
The Detroit automaker expects 2023 to unfold along similar lines, forecasting an adjusted loss of $3 billion for its EV unit, adjusted earnings of about $7 billion for its internal combustion unit, and adjusted earnings of roughly $6 billion for its fleet business.

Ford's EV business lost $2 billion in 2022, offset by big profits in fleet and legacy units

The financials are the first detailed look at EV profitability as Ford unveils a new financial reporting structure.

www.cnbc.com

Losing $9,000 on every EV sold?

 

[Redmanss]

Tesla didn’t annually net a dime until 2020. A shit ton of capital is spent shifting the lines over and building new plants. I’m making moves this and next year to get new ICE vehicles to last a long while, because the end is coming, consumers be damned.

 

[Shooter McGavin]

I’m making moves this and next year to get new ICE vehicles to last a long while, because the end is coming, consumers be damned.

Should be some deals coming if you got the cash. Interest rates will still be high, but the car market will be flush with cars. Banks are still holding on to repos that they can't or won't auction off because of the high losses, not that they aren't trying. They will have to get rid of them eventually and take those losses which means the used car market will be flooded with cars. Then there will a lot of affordable cars that have low mileage and that will hurt the new car market. Hence the new car market will need to adjust their prices to sell cars. Just be patient.

 

[E. Bryant]

Losing $9,000 on every EV sold?

That's roughly 1/10th of what Rivian loses on every one of their vehicles, so by comparison Ford is lookin' pretty good.

I'd love to see how this breaks down by model. I'd guess that the Lightning looks pretty good, while the Mach-E is probably a shitshow.

Interesting (but not surprising) to see that Ford Pro (commercial vehicles) is nearly as profitable as Ford's sales of ICEs to private users.

 

[devildog93]

• Says results will now be reported by Ford Blue (iconic gas, hybrid vehicles), Ford Model e (breakthrough EVs) and Ford Pro (commercial products, services), not by regional markets
• Believes Ford+ will produce solid growth and sustained, healthy profitability and returns by deploying new technologies, achieving higher quality, lowering costs and complexity
• Reconfirms late-2026 margin targets of 10% for company adjusted EBIT and 8% for Ford Model e – the latter driven by ambitious scaling of EV production run rates
• Points to Ford Pro as a powerful illustration of how customer-relevant, software-enabled vehicles and services will generate value across all three segments
• Reaffirms full-year 2023 adjusted EBIT guidance of $9 billion to $11 billion; provides segment-level outlooks; plans to share more information at Capital Markets Day on May 22

https://media.ford.com/content/fordmedia/fna/us/en/news/2023/03/23/_refounded_-ford-to-show-how-customer-focused-segments-will-driv.html

That is some wishful thinking backed by no serious data. Losses will suddenly turn into gold and rainbows.

 

[S3th]

Created a new investment portfolio that I’m sure will include additional companies overtime. Makes up 10% of my ROTH.

The Electric Lifecycle plus accretive Tesla investments.

Equally weighted at the current time. Tesla, Enphase, LiCycle, and Albemarle.

 

[Redmanss]

Should be some deals coming if you got the cash. Interest rates will still be high, but the car market will be flush with cars. Banks are still holding on to repos that they can't or won't auction off because of the high losses, not that they aren't trying. They will have to get rid of them eventually and take those losses which means the used car market will be flooded with cars. Then there will a lot of affordable cars that have low mileage and that will hurt the new car market. Hence the new car market will need to adjust their prices to sell cars. Just be patient.

I’m quite patient, that’s for sure, as my own “daily driver” is a ‘97 and only looking to replace it because the AC shit out and every time I need to disconnect an electrical connector the keeper tab breaks due to brittleness. Hard to call it a daily driver though, being as the work truck does all that and I put at best 3k miles a year on my personal vehicle. The wife’s little Subie on the other hand takes 20k/yr with a 70 mile a day commute. Nothing is nearby in Wyoming if you work next town over…

Have Ford X-Plan pricing available (basically invoice) and looking at a gasser F350 to fit the hauling needs for the next 20 years or so, it won’t see much mileage. Usually not much wiggle room on those under normal conditions to get below invoice.

Other vehicle will likely be a Lexus GX 460 for the weekends and road trips. I want one of those before they kill off the V8 and put in that new horrendous turbo 6 the Tundras have. Deals rare new on those as well, but in no hurry until the ‘24 models come out and see what’s coming for those.

I may have a mortgage, but otherwise I’m a cash customer. I don’t like making banks money off my impatience. I paid off my last truck loan in ‘02 and swore to never have another one, and I’m the guy with the snide comments when the cashier asks me if I want their store’s credit card to “save” $20 now. Credit is for bank slaves.

 

[Lightning8]

That's roughly 1/10th of what Rivian loses on every one of their vehicles, so by comparison Ford is lookin' pretty good.

I'd love to see how this breaks down by model. I'd guess that the Lightning looks pretty good, while the Mach-E is probably a shitshow.

Interesting (but not surprising) to see that Ford Pro (commercial vehicles) is nearly as profitable as Ford's sales of ICEs to private users.

When Obama was in office, the US Military bought a large number of stripped F150s as a form of "bail out". How many Ford PRO vehicles are purchased by various government/NGO organizations to reward/influence Ford on the EV vs ICE transition? Do you believe that government purchasing organizations (not their money) drive a hard bargain as much as most consumers (their money)?

 

[Hobo Hilton]

When Obama was in office, the US Military bought a large number of stripped F150s as a form of "bail out". How many Ford PRO vehicles are purchased by various government/NGO organizations to reward/influence Ford on the EV vs ICE transition? Do you believe that government purchasing organizations (not their money) drive a hard bargain as much as most consumers (their money)?

If I gave you a signed, blank check and told you to go buy yourself a new Ford pickup... What model would you be looking at....

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Let me know your bearish comments on $ALB. Seems like an industry you have had exposure to.

I assume you are talking about Albemarle.

In February 1994, Ethyl Corporation completed the corporate spin-off of its chemical businesses to form Albemarle Corporation.[5] Albemarle was headquartered in Richmond, Virginia, until 2008 when it announced plans to move its corporate headquarters to Baton Rouge, Louisiana.[6]
_______________________

I had good friends that worked at Ethyl when it closed due to "lead" being phased out. Albemarle has "kept their nose clean" in Louisiana as far as pollutants, politics and employment. I was surprised to read they were such a large player in the lithium arena.

___________________________________________
I hold some BHP because on the other side of this recession raw materials will be needed. Stock piles are being depleted to cut cost.

While ALB is not a "miner" like BHP, they run close for the beginning of 2023.

Contrary to my normal bearish stance...... I think ALB will do well once their new plant in SC comes online. Note: The government money is there.
Remember, there has been a large Lithium claim staked out here in the Bitterroot Valley by a couple of guy's from Alabama.