Stock Market

Correct. I’m entertaining a role there but I believe their HQ is in Charlotte, NC.
Just a guess here... They must be well managed and have some old school people in their finance department. They think like Warren Buffet and when looking at smaller companies to buy, they "look at the company" and not at the stock. Seems to be working for them.
You don't want to get that "Southern Girl" too near the Mason - Dixon line.
 
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No idea what's going to happen but some of the tweets and replies are fascinating





(the whole chatgpt.thing is interesting, gotta wonder if some AI whiz is working the financial system)


I’m a lurker on this tread, I don’t understand everything you talk about, but I’m learning.

This may not be the right spot to ask this, but a lot of you are tuned into this. Can anyone break down the quoted tweets into layman’s terms for me?

Thanks

edit- Im not good with the quote function on an iPad.

edit 2- not the chatgpt tweet, the first one regarding the central banks.
 
I’m a lurker on this tread, I don’t understand everything you talk about, but I’m learning.

This may not be the right spot to ask this, but a lot of you are tuned into this. Can anyone break down the quoted tweets into layman’s terms for me?

Thanks

edit- Im not good with the quote function on an iPad.

edit 2- not the chatgpt tweet, the first one regarding the central banks.
What you have asked for is "opinions". We all want "looking forward" information. There is ZERO looking forward information is this tweet / conversation / comments. Monday morning could bring big moves in the markets. Movement in the markets is how traders make money. IN a flat market, no one makes any money ( long of short, it don't matter). In this case, it appears that there will be more printing of USD's and that is supposed to be the "float". that will devalue the USD and add to inflation.
Being in Canada, you could be better off than other parts of the world.
Focus more locally than international. Pay off your debt (credit cards, pay day loans, auto loans, etc.). Secure a supply of food / grow a garden.
The financial experts have written off 2023. Going to be a stretch to get into the middle of 2024 before things improve.

JMHO
 
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When (not if) banks go all hell will break loose. Europe will be first to suffer with no viable option for ECB to fix things then national debt will explode and either same time or after this will jump to US. It will be like 2008 but compounded by national debt and already high inflation and civil unease growing into global unrest. Short of national emergency with soldiers on the street (probably motivated by ability to feed family through rations given by ruling elite) i dont see how they will manage to keep humpty dumpty whole again…
 
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I’ll take the contrarian view.

The shorter dated swaps are there to provide greater dollar liquidity on a global scale. The dollar is a safe-haven currency so majority of foreign banks own US Bonds. Bank runs aren’t only happening in America but many other countries too. To come up with the necessary liquidity for depositors, foreign banks have to sell their bonds. But what is happening is the US dollar liquidity isn’t there to buy the bonds. The foreign bank and foreign central bank doesn’t have the dollars to exchange for their countries functional currency. The foreign central bank works with our central bank to get dollars under the terms of a swap contract. We get CAD/EUR/YEN/SEK/etc and they get dollars and in a day, week, month the central banks swap back.

This should not be viewed as QE even though the money supply is currently growing.

As America continues to tighten fiscal policy and tighten credit conditions we will see the dollar strengthen.
 
I’ll take the contrarian view.

The shorter dated swaps are there to provide greater dollar liquidity on a global scale. The dollar is a safe-haven currency so majority of foreign banks own US Bonds. Bank runs aren’t only happening in America but many other countries too. To come up with the necessary liquidity for depositors, foreign banks have to sell their bonds. But what is happening is the US dollar liquidity isn’t there to buy the bonds. The foreign bank and foreign central bank doesn’t have the dollars to exchange for their countries functional currency. The foreign central bank works with our central bank to get dollars under the terms of a swap contract. We get CAD/EUR/YEN/SEK/etc and they get dollars and in a day, week, month the central banks swap back.

This should not be viewed as QE even though the money supply is currently growing.

As America continues to tighten fiscal policy and tighten credit conditions we will see the dollar strengthen.
I’m long banks for a minute or two along with short dated bonds. There are no doubt a few more svb-type cases but with the no-haircut fed collateral facility there is plenty of liquidity by using the underwater bond holdings. Mark to market won’t happen until after the recession is underway and the fed is cutting rates. Anyway that’s my plan.
 
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I’m long banks for a minute or two along with short dated bonds. There are no doubt a few more svb-type cases but with the no-haircut fed collateral facility there is plenty of liquidity by using the underwater bond holdings. Mark to market won’t happen until after the recession is underway and the fed is cutting rates. Anyway that’s my plan.
I like a "man with a plan". At least you are are aware that there is a game. That puts you ahead of 95% of Americans and well ahead of anyone drawing a check on Wall Street. I think a Black Jack dealer in Vegas is more savvy to how the money game is played compared to the Stock Market "experts". Unfortunate for all those building a retirement.
There is always ONE exception to the rule.
 
The catch phrase in many reports coming from American corporations:
"Conversion of Backlog to Sales" (Below, last line)
Consumers are entering a "Catch 22" world. The question is "Should I pay the high price and take possession... or ... wait for a price cut when inventories are reduced" ?
I'll give big business credit. Unlike the FED Reserve, they saw this recession long ago and reduced inventories.
Look at comments, right here, about how many are "waiting on parts".
Take possession or do without is here, today.
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Caterpillar stock takes a hit after Baird turns bearish, in second downgrade in six weeks​

11:37 am ET March 27, 2023 (MarketWatch)By Tomi Kilgore

Baird's Mircea Dobre cut rating to underperform, after downgrading it to neutral in mid-February
Shares of Caterpillar Inc. fell Monday, after Baird analyst Mircea Dobre turned bearish, citing the belief the construction- and mining-equipment maker was nearing a "cyclical pivot point" that turns what used to be tailwinds to headwinds.
The stock (CAT) fell 0.8% in morning trading, and has shed 4.3% amid a four-day losing streak.
Dobre cut his rating to underperform, after downgrading Caterpillar to neutral on Feb. 14. Dobre lowered his stock price target to $185 from $230, with the new target implying about 15% downside from current levels.
He believes dealer stocking, which has been a tailwind to the construction- and mining-equipment maker's revenue growth, is set for "meaningful deceleration" in 2023 and 2024.
Dobre also expects the positive price/cost spread, or the difference between prices charged and the cost of sales will likely peak in the first quarter.
"[T]he positive gap will very likely diminish as pricing is starting to run into difficult prior year comparisons, note also that on the manufacturing cost side, several key inputs (plate, HRC steel) are once again turning higher limiting further cost downside into 2H23/2024," Dobre wrote in a note to clients.
He expects backlog, which was at near record levels at the end of 2022, to peak in the first quarter, as the pace of quarter-over-quarter growth has decelerated to about 1% in the fourth quarter, from 46% in the third quarter and 55% in the second quarter.
Dobre noted that backlog erosion has a "well-established history of driving subsequent stock underperformance."
And as Caterpillar increases the conversion of backlog to sales, dealer retail sales will "NEED" to accelerate, Dobre said, or excess inventories could build rapidly, which will then lead to production cuts.
 
What's in it for me and the average American ?
_____________________________________________

The United States and Japan have sealed a deal to cooperate on critical minerals for batteries that will see the two try and move EV supply chains away from China.
According to the deal, per the Wall Street Journal, Japan and the U.S. will remove export levies on the EV minerals they trade and they will also align their labor standards in the mining department.
The catch, however, is that there is a “Made in the U.S.” provision for such projects and that includes EVs and the minerals that make up their batteries. In order for a carmaker to qualify for a federal $7,500 EV credit, it must be able to provide evidence that at least half of the metals and minerals used in the car’s battery were sourced from the United States itself or a country with which the U.S. has a free trade agreement


 
Musk: the next-generation Teslas could cost as little as $25,000.
According to Musk, the next-generation Teslas could cost as little as $25,000. This would certainly be an improvement of current prices even as Tesla cuts them repeatedly to stimulate demand. If it happens, this would also put EVs—and not just any EVs but luxury Teslas—on a much more equal footing with ICE cars. And that’s the prize that the EV industry has been struggling to get.
 

S3th

Lithium Stocks Gain as Albemarle Reveals Unsolicited Offer for Liontown -- Barrons.com​

8:05 am ET March 28, 2023 (Dow Jones) Print

Al Root
Demand for lithium is growing as more electric vehicles require more lithium-ion batteries to make them go. The growth is causing some M&A action in the lithium industry and pushing shares of small-capitalization, early-stage lithium miners higher.
Monday evening, lithium miner Albemarle (ticker: ALB) disclosed it had submitted a proposal to acquire the Australian lithium start-up Liontown Resources (LTR.Australia) for 2.50 Australian dollars a share, or about $1.66.
The deal values Liontown at about $3.4 billion. The miner has two mining projects under development in Western Australia. Production of lithium product suitable for refinement into battery-grade materials should begin around 2024.
Liontown stock rose about 69% in overseas trading to A$2.57 a share, seven cents higher than the Albemarle offer. Investors expect a higher bid.
So does Liontown management. The company rejected the Albemarle bid as inadequate.
"The Liontown Board and its advisers carefully considered the Indicative Proposal and unanimously determined that it substantially undervalues Liontown, and therefore is not in the best interests of shareholders," reads part of a news
 
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I am a fan of the Lightning. On the list with ~6 other vehicles I am interested in buying lol
March 30 (Reuters) - Ford Motor Co (F.N) has raised the base price of its popular F-150 Lightning electric pickup truck again, the automaker's website showed on Thursday, the latest in a series of price hikes aimed at offsetting high costs.
Shares of Ford were up 2% in afternoon trade.
The base variant of Ford's electric F-150 truck now starts at $59,974, excluding shipping and taxes, up nearly 50% from its starting price when launched last year.

 
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Buy ? :ROFLMAO:
Going to be a hard sell.
________________
Electric heavy-truck maker Nikola
said on Thursday that it plans to raise $100 million via a secondary stock offering to the public and — possibly — a private sale of stock to an unnamed investor, if needed.
The company’s shares were down about 5% in after-hours trading following the news.
Nikola’s plan to raise capital comes in two parts. First, the company said, it will offer up to $100 million worth of stock to the public via a traditional secondary offering, with Citigroup underwriting. Citigroup will have the option to purchase an additional $15 million worth of shares.


big.chart

 
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Hmmmmmm....
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BEIJING, March 31 (Reuters) - China's top lithium producers agreed this week to set a floor price of 250,000 yuan ($36,380) per tonne of lithium carbonate, six people familiar with the matter said, in an effort to slow a plunge in the price of the battery raw material.
The price was agreed on Tuesday by around 10 companies including Tianqi Lithium (002466.SZ) and Ganfeng Lithium (002460.SZ) that met on the sidelines of a conference in Nanchang in southern China, said one person who attended the meeting and five others briefed on the discussions.
Spot prices have slumped by more than 60% since their peak in late November, with the decline picking up pace in recent weeks on a growing price war in China's auto market.


 
Lithium carbonate prices in China tumbled 55% year-to-date to CNY 240,000 per tonne in late March, the lowest in 15 months, as robust output and a pullback in demand continued to support forecasts of a supply surplus this year. After subsidizing battery manufacturers and granting cash rewards to new electric vehicle purchases in 2022, China halted incentives for the new energy auto sector and catalyzed a decline in demand for battery inputs. The overproduction of batteries at the end of 2022 to take advantage of subsidies drove battery producers to have unsustainably high inventories and prompted the sale of goods at a steep discount with sharp capacity cuts in all streams of the supply chain. Meanwhile, 8.5 million tons of lithium, equivalent to 10% of the current world reserve, were found in a deposit in Iran. The bearish pressure in the near term persisted due to the EU’s decision to phase out carbon-emitting cars by 2035.

1680396076491.png
 
$TSLA generates significantly better returns on invested capital than even Ferrari, $RACE, despite selling at 1/5 the average price. High and sturdy ROIC is how we identify moats: brand, or cost & scale. Tesla's brand is great, but they're absolutely savage on cost control.

FsoLtSOWYAE7N7T
 
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That is a poor county. I'm sure the folks there will welcome 300 good paying jobs. As stated in some of the comments, it is a "good fit".
 
DETROIT – About 5,000 white-collar workers at General Motors
opted to participate in a buyout program that was announced last month to lower the automaker’s global headcount and fixed costs.
GM CFO Paul Jacobson said Tuesday the automaker expects to take a roughly $1 billion charge during the quarter as a result of the program. The headcount reduction was part of the company’s plans to cut $2 billion in structural costs over the next two years.

 

LSU professor designs lithium-ion battery alternative​

BATON ROUGE, La. (WAFB) - An LSU professor has designed a potential alternative to lithium-ion batteries.

According to LSU, Mechanical Engineering Associate Professor Ying Wang is using a grant from the Louisiana Board of Regents to design a non-metal rechargeable battery. The hope is that the battery could one day replace lithium-ion batteries.

“Lithium-ion batteries have good performance but several serious issues,” Wang said. “It’s not sustainable and is very expensive, and the U.S. does not have deep reserves for lithium. Also, if you are extracting lithium from mines, you are using a tremendous amount of water, which has a severe impact on the environment.”
 
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While final figures have yet to be announced, Stellantis expects the fully electric Ram 1500 REV pickup will be able to drive 500 miles on a single charge, much farther than either the Ford F-150 Lightning or General Motors’ Chevrolet Silverado 1500 EV and GMC Sierra EV. GM expects to get 400 miles of range from its electric trucks. Long-range versions of Ford’s Lightning can go up to 320 miles on a charge, according to EPA estimates. Tesla claims its Cybertruck will also have a maximum 500 miles of range, however.

 

S3th


Nothing has changed in the committees or lithium world. This appears to be a hack to knock down the share price of ALB.
I'm sure our US Congressmen have placed their bets or hedge prior to this. The insiders are still doing what they have always done.
Unfortunate for America.
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Sell Lithium Miner Albemarle Because Pricing Is Double-Edged Sword, Says Analyst -- Barrons.com​

7:44 am ET April 5, 2023 (Dow Jones) Print

Al Root
Lithium prices have been on a wild ride for the past year. The volatility is having an impact on lithium mining stocks, and their ratings.
Bank of America analyst Matthew DeYoe downgraded shares of lithium miner Albemarle (ticker: ALB) to Sell from Hold. His price target dropped to $195 from $262 a share. At the same time, he upgraded shares of Livent (LTHM) to Buy from Hold. His price target for that stock actually went down to $27 from $29 a share.
An upgrade to Buy with a price target cut makes sense based on what's been happening to lithium stocks lately. Livent shares have fallen about 12% over the past month. Albemarle shares have declined about 18%.
Falling prices for benchmark lithium commodities is a big reason the stocks are down. Lithium carbonate prices have fallen more than 50% this year to about $33,000 per metric ton. Prices peaked at roughly $90,000 a metric ton around November.
Electric-vehicle demand drives demand for lithium-ion batteries and the lithium that goes into the batteries. Lithium carbonate prices were about $7,000 a ton in 2020.
Falling prices should impact all lithium-related stocks, but Albemarle has more risk than Livent, according to DeYoe. Livent has taken a more conservative approach to contract pricing -- its contract prices tend to be fixed and adjust year to year. Albemarle's pricing contracts have been moving to a more market-based pricing mechanism so Albemarle sees lithium price fluctuations sooner in its results.
Albemarle stock was down 2.9% in premarket trading. Livent shares rose 2.9%. S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were both down about 0.1%.
Overall, 58% of analysts covering Livent stock rate shares at Buy. The average Buy-rating ratio for stocks in the S&P 500 is about 58%. The average analyst price target is about $32 a share.
A downgrade to Sell doesn't change how many analysts rate Albemarle stock a Buy, with about 57% having that rating. About 11% rate shares Sell now. The average Sell-rating ratio for a stock in the S&P 500 is less than 10%. The average analyst price target for Albemarle stock is about $314 a share.
Coming into Wednesday trading, Albemarle shares have declined about 4% over the past 12 months. Livent shares have dropped about 21%.
Write to Al Root at [email protected]
This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires

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From what I have learned, Albemarle stood out as they use contract pricing vs. market pricing. Either way, Albemarle hedge's their FX and commodity risk. Moving to a more market price will benefit them more so than contract pricing given they can maintain customer accounts.

Here is a role they are hiring for today:

The Treasury department at Albemarle helps the company maximize shareholder value by delivering the appropriate finance solutions to our businesses. The Sr. Financial Risk Analyst has broad responsibility that includes providing support for FX, commodity and interest rate hedging and capital market activities. In addition, the role will support the global pension asset management activities. The role will interact with a variety of functional areas, including Controlling, Tax, Legal, Audit, Business finance and our banking partners. The position offers significant exposure to our global business and visibility to senior management.
 
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From what I have learned, Albemarle stood out as they use contract pricing vs. market pricing. Either way, Albemarle hedge's their FX and commodity risk. Moving to a more market price will benefit them more so than contract pricing given they can maintain customer accounts.

Here is a role they are hiring for today:

The Treasury department at Albemarle helps the company maximize shareholder value by delivering the appropriate finance solutions to our businesses. The Sr. Financial Risk Analyst has broad responsibility that includes providing support for FX, commodity and interest rate hedging and capital market activities. In addition, the role will support the global pension asset management activities. The role will interact with a variety of functional areas, including Controlling, Tax, Legal, Audit, Business finance and our banking partners. The position offers significant exposure to our global business and visibility to senior management.
You would be a good fit.
Go for it.
 
I actually had a recruiter reach out about it. That is how I found out about them haha.
I think they have a good foundation and will ride all of this turmoil out. "Old School" is going to be around long after the "New School"... Think Enron vs Exxon.
Edit: Perhaps the move to knock down the share price has something to do with a possible take over or merge with a competitor.

Who are Albemarle Corp competitors?
The main competitors of Albemarle include DuPont de Nemours (DD), DOW (DOW), Eastman Chemical (EMN), Barrick Gold (GOLD), ArcelorMittal (MT), PPG Industries (PPG), LyondellBasell Industries (LYB), Franco-Nevada (FNV), Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile (SQM), and Newmont (NEM).
 
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From what I have learned, Albemarle stood out as they use contract pricing vs. market pricing. Either way, Albemarle hedge's their FX and commodity risk. Moving to a more market price will benefit them more so than contract pricing given they can maintain customer accounts.

Here is a role they are hiring for today:

The Treasury department at Albemarle helps the company maximize shareholder value by delivering the appropriate finance solutions to our businesses. The Sr. Financial Risk Analyst has broad responsibility that includes providing support for FX, commodity and interest rate hedging and capital market activities. In addition, the role will support the global pension asset management activities. The role will interact with a variety of functional areas, including Controlling, Tax, Legal, Audit, Business finance and our banking partners. The position offers significant exposure to our global business and visibility to senior management.
 
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Today, we are publishing Master Plan Part 3, which outlines a proposed path to reach a sustainable global energy economy through end-use electrification and sustainable electricity generation and storage. This paper outlines the assumptions, sources and calculations behind that proposal. Input and conversation are welcome.


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