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- Thread starter pmclaine
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I just saw this whole thread. I might not know much about shooting but investments are my world as I own a wealth management company. Passively indexing is good but where more sophisticated investments are smarter. Dual directional absolute return note where you can make money on both side. If the underlying index is typically -1 to -30% at maturity you make +that amount (-10% would pay +10%). If it finishes positive then you make that amount. You can even get a bit of leverage on the upside (105-140%) if you want. I do these and have JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, or Morgan30 mins talks about the $25K car
Stanley underwrite the for my clients.
Bad news for the cheap/free money crowd:
fortune.com
Maybe the Fed "pivots" next year, maybe it doesn't - but the long-term trend is in the upward direction. And when we as a society look back at what we bought with all that cheap credit, there will be regrets.
The Fed watcher who called the 2007 housing bubble expects interest rates to stay high for ‘much, much, much longer.’ It’s payback for the unsustainable ‘free money era’
Jim Grant of Grant's Interest Rate Observer believes it will take years to undo the kinks from a decade of ultra-low interest rates.
Maybe the Fed "pivots" next year, maybe it doesn't - but the long-term trend is in the upward direction. And when we as a society look back at what we bought with all that cheap credit, there will be regrets.
That's not even remotely close to median estimates which is for 5 cuts and 100 bps for 2024 vs Fed ding dongs of 3 for 80bps as of this afternoon.
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Enphase broke $120... gz to all who made purchases at the low for an almost 100% return
Looking for the discussion of the Tesla recall (2 million vehicles?) reference their auto pilot and impact on the Tesla stock
I am convinced the market is just as rigged as our elections. Individual investors cannot "move" the market, but a few big "houses" can move the market.
PS - election coming up, market "appearing that all is well".
Am I the only one viewing this as pretty extreme pivot? Inflation coming down… looming recession in my own opinion. Market rally to sell off around elections? Idk. I wonder how the real estate market is going to be with rates back in the 6s.
Real estate depends on available properties to buy - seems like those with low interest rates mortgages are not selling and giant investment firms buying whatever they can for rental fleets.
I do not think "inflation" is coming down - Federal government keeps redefining the way "inflation" and other key metrics are defined.
I am surprised we are not already in a recession - with maxed out credit cards plus spending on Christmas; seems like consumer spending will finally slow
Everyone thinks we are heading for soft or no landing.. just a few weeks after it was assumed recession was likely.
Government debt is growing faster than ever. They may spend their way past a recession but not the inflation.
Government debt is growing faster than ever. They may spend their way past a recession but not the inflation.
Inflation is the rate of change. It could hit an actual zero number tomorrow, and that just means that you're not getting screwed any faster than you were today (it's not zero, and you're still getting screwed harder than during the entire decade prior to the pandemic, but not as hard as during the prior two years.)
We don't get back to pre-2021 prices without actual deflation, and of course that's scary to everyone who loaded up on more debt since this stupidity began so it won't happen. What we will get is the "all is well" message that allows the Fed to resume monetary expansion well beyond that required by organic GDP growth.
Cliff notes: someone at Tesla either didn't pay attention to the term "foreseeable use and misuse" during their product safety training, or more likely just didn't care.
Tesla fanbois are going to explain that this isn't a recall because the cars can be reflashed over the air, but that misses the larger point that the company ignored an issue until it was compelled by a regulatory agency to address that problem.
I'm no fanboy, but this isn't Teslas fault.
Your mama says don't stick your dick in crazy and you do it anyway, you blame your mother?
Ever notice when a MEGA corporation has "Government Money" to burn they initiate losing projects ?
Like clock work. Where did the money go ?
www.cnbc.com
Like clock work. Where did the money go ?
Cruise is in danger of becoming GM's latest trendy venture that doesn't pay off
Cruise has quickly gone from one of GM's greatest business opportunities to a massive liability.
www.cnbc.com
My guess is that "Detroit" was paid off with our tax money to make vehicles the public does not want. Ford announced that they will build half as many "Lightning" F150s in 2024. GM waffling on some EVish vehicles. Maybe they are hedging that the election in 2024 might not favor payoffs for EVs, Green, etc.Ever notice when a MEGA corporation has "Government Money" to burn they initiate losing projects ?
Like clock work. Where did the money go ?
Cruise is in danger of becoming GM's latest trendy venture that doesn't pay off
Cruise has quickly gone from one of GM's greatest business opportunities to a massive liability.
Chart of the day - the Dow Jones priced in ounces of gold:
Bonus: here's an overlay of the CPI 2015-present over that during 1966-1988:
Bonus: here's an overlay of the CPI 2015-present over that during 1966-1988:
Put pee pads and knee pads in office four more years and you can flip that coming incline into a decline.
One more wow.
TOKYO, Dec 20 (Reuters) - Toshiba (6502.T) will be delisted on Wednesday after 74 years on the Tokyo exchange, following a decade of upheaval and scandal that brought down one of Japan's biggest brands and ushered in a buyout and an uncertain future.
The conglomerate is being taken private by a group of investors led by private equity firm Japan Industrial Partners(JIP) that also includes financial services firm Orix (8591.T), utility Chubu Electric Power (9502.T) and chipmaker Rohm (6963.T).
The $14 billion takeover puts Toshiba in domestic hands after protracted battles with overseas activist investors that paralysed the maker of batteries, chips, and nuclear and defence equipment.
TOKYO, Dec 20 (Reuters) - Toshiba (6502.T) will be delisted on Wednesday after 74 years on the Tokyo exchange, following a decade of upheaval and scandal that brought down one of Japan's biggest brands and ushered in a buyout and an uncertain future.
The conglomerate is being taken private by a group of investors led by private equity firm Japan Industrial Partners(JIP) that also includes financial services firm Orix (8591.T), utility Chubu Electric Power (9502.T) and chipmaker Rohm (6963.T).
The $14 billion takeover puts Toshiba in domestic hands after protracted battles with overseas activist investors that paralysed the maker of batteries, chips, and nuclear and defence equipment.
Probably bad for the general economy, which means it's bullish for stocks:
www.cnbc.com
FedEx shares tumble 12% after weaker demand hit revenue outlook
It's the second consecutive quarter FedEx has lowered its sales guidance.
www.cnbc.com
From "Wallstreet Breakfast": The Dow Jones (DJI) did it last week. So did the Nasdaq 100 (NDX). Now it looks like it's the S&P 500's (SP500) turn to record a new all-time closing high. Following another session in the green on Tuesday, the benchmark index is only 30 points away from the upcoming milestone, meaning another move of 0.6% can bring it the vaulted trophy. S&P 500 futures (SPX) are inching down in the premarket, but one never knows what could happen during the regular session. The benchmark could also have to wait a little longer, or for a Santa rally to charge things up next week.
Snapshot: There's been a shift in expectations for monetary policy since late October, sending equities on a broad seven-week rally. The most recent boost came during last week's FOMC meeting, where Fed Chair Jay Powell formally lowered inflation forecasts for 2024 and telegraphed three rate cuts in the new year. "The question of when will it become appropriate to begin dialing back the amount of policy restraint in place... is clearly a discussion topic out in the world and also of discussion for us," he declared. "I would say there's a general expectation that this will be a topic for us looking ahead."
Notably, the biggest contributors to the S&P 500's (SP500) banner year have been the usual suspects, currently dubbed the Magnificent Seven. The group that includes Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT) Nvidia (NVDA) and Tesla (TSLA) is up a combined 75% in 2023, while the remaining 493 companies in the S&P 500 are about 12% higher, resulting in a 25% YTD gain for the index as a whole. The bull market has given big returns to many investors, and has just seen Wall Street's fear gauge - known as the VIX - slide to its lowest level since the start of the COVID pandemic.
What's in store for 2024? "The pivot from 'higher for longer' to rate cuts is bullish for the stock market as it could cancel the recession," notes SA analyst Damir Tokic, while Investing Group Leader Victor Dergunov says that stocks could even go much higher next year. Zoltan Ban takes a contrarian view, predicting that the S&P 500 will decline to 3,500 due to various factors such as higher oil prices and a slowing economy. "There is little doubt that FOMO has crept back into the market the same way we've seen in the past," Fear & Greed Trader cautions in Wall Street: Investing In 2 Different Worlds
Snapshot: There's been a shift in expectations for monetary policy since late October, sending equities on a broad seven-week rally. The most recent boost came during last week's FOMC meeting, where Fed Chair Jay Powell formally lowered inflation forecasts for 2024 and telegraphed three rate cuts in the new year. "The question of when will it become appropriate to begin dialing back the amount of policy restraint in place... is clearly a discussion topic out in the world and also of discussion for us," he declared. "I would say there's a general expectation that this will be a topic for us looking ahead."
Notably, the biggest contributors to the S&P 500's (SP500) banner year have been the usual suspects, currently dubbed the Magnificent Seven. The group that includes Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT) Nvidia (NVDA) and Tesla (TSLA) is up a combined 75% in 2023, while the remaining 493 companies in the S&P 500 are about 12% higher, resulting in a 25% YTD gain for the index as a whole. The bull market has given big returns to many investors, and has just seen Wall Street's fear gauge - known as the VIX - slide to its lowest level since the start of the COVID pandemic.
What's in store for 2024? "The pivot from 'higher for longer' to rate cuts is bullish for the stock market as it could cancel the recession," notes SA analyst Damir Tokic, while Investing Group Leader Victor Dergunov says that stocks could even go much higher next year. Zoltan Ban takes a contrarian view, predicting that the S&P 500 will decline to 3,500 due to various factors such as higher oil prices and a slowing economy. "There is little doubt that FOMO has crept back into the market the same way we've seen in the past," Fear & Greed Trader cautions in Wall Street: Investing In 2 Different Worlds
When a Tesla semi can pull 92K lbs of counterweight 450 miles at -25 with one 1/2hr fuel/charging stop let me know. Or do a 12hr shift as a plow truck spreading sand with a 1hr charge between shifts and then do another 12 then you have something. As far as women liking the Tesla pickup, that only works if they service the man properly who pays for a luxury status symbol. In good times the profits would roll in. During the coming financial challenges, not so much. Without government “stimulus”, electric vehicles don’t look so attractive to the accountants in HQs of companies that actually have fleets.
I think that electric trucks are close to accomplishing what you specify - the real questions are: 1) Can they be built at a price that makes it economically feasible to purchase and operate?, and 2) Do we have access to sufficient quantities of key materials to build enough of them to successfully displace ICE trucks?
Tesla's lack of willingness to disclose the price and key specifications of its Semi suggest that they know the answer to those questions.
It has been for credit that's for sure. The rotation into fixed income has been violent to say the least which is a bit frustrating as the easy yield sale of the last 3 1/2 years is getting tougher to find. Hoping to see some healthy profit taking light the violent deep red days up soon.Probably bad for the general economy, which means it's bullish for stocks:
FedEx shares tumble 12% after weaker demand hit revenue outlook
It's the second consecutive quarter FedEx has lowered its sales guidance.
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I don't follow them, but just looked up their price action from covid lows. Wow impressive hope you are one of the folks who bought it at those levels what a great run.
Thats when I got in after Trump said it was an important industry to save so I brought in and weeks later found out they weren't allowed any covid funds because they were a foreign corporation after dumping a boat load of cash into it. Luckily it worked out for them and the stock recovered. It only hit 130.00 for a few minutes this morning then it dropped back down again.
Investment giant Fidelity believes the shares it holds of X, the platform formerly known as Twitter, are worth 71.5% less than when Musk first purchased the social media company in October 2022, according to a new securities filing.
The latest disclosure by a Fidelity mutual fund reflects a long-running trend that has steadily reduced X’s estimated value over the past year amid successive crises at the company, many of which have been driven by owner Elon Musk.
According to the new filing by Fidelity’s Blue Chip Growth Fund dated Dec. 30 and reporting information through Nov. 30, Fidelity estimates the shares of X that it owns are worth just under $5.6 million. The filing said its shares in X represent less than .01% of the total value of the fund, which it said is more than $49 billion.
The latest disclosure by a Fidelity mutual fund reflects a long-running trend that has steadily reduced X’s estimated value over the past year amid successive crises at the company, many of which have been driven by owner Elon Musk.
According to the new filing by Fidelity’s Blue Chip Growth Fund dated Dec. 30 and reporting information through Nov. 30, Fidelity estimates the shares of X that it owns are worth just under $5.6 million. The filing said its shares in X represent less than .01% of the total value of the fund, which it said is more than $49 billion.
Too big to fail.
Government will keep them afloat.
Inspector's will fake reports
Planes will be sold to other countries.
No changes in sight. When you book a flight.... Caveat emptor
No where to hide that cash.
Investors pulled out $687 million, $1.37 billion and $652 million, respectively from U.S. large-, mid-, and multi-cap funds. Small-cap funds remained in demand, attracting $1.32 billion in a fifth straight week of net buying.
Investors pulled out $687 million, $1.37 billion and $652 million, respectively from U.S. large-, mid-, and multi-cap funds. Small-cap funds remained in demand, attracting $1.32 billion in a fifth straight week of net buying.
ESG stands for Environmental, Social and Governance. This is often called sustainability. In a business context, sustainability is about the company's business model, i.e. how its products and services contribute to sustainable development.
Activist investors’ love for sustainability-related shareholder campaigns appears to be growing cold in the absence of any practical outcomes, a consultancy has said.
Per Alvarez & Marsal, as quoted by Bloomberg, activist investors were less likely to engage in ESG campaigns this year after they proved to be markedly less lucrative than campaigns that focused on effecting operational or strategic change.
“As investors focus more firmly on returns in 2024 in a challenging market, we expect to see a decline in ESG-related campaigns and a renewed focus on metrics such as margin growth, cash generation and return on capital,” Alvarez & Marsal managing director Andre Medeiros said.
oilprice.com
Activist investors’ love for sustainability-related shareholder campaigns appears to be growing cold in the absence of any practical outcomes, a consultancy has said.
Per Alvarez & Marsal, as quoted by Bloomberg, activist investors were less likely to engage in ESG campaigns this year after they proved to be markedly less lucrative than campaigns that focused on effecting operational or strategic change.
“As investors focus more firmly on returns in 2024 in a challenging market, we expect to see a decline in ESG-related campaigns and a renewed focus on metrics such as margin growth, cash generation and return on capital,” Alvarez & Marsal managing director Andre Medeiros said.
Activist Investors Drop ESG Campaigns on Lack of Profits | OilPrice.com
Activist investors’ love for sustainability-related shareholder campaigns appears to be growing cold in the absence of any practical outcomes, a consultancy has said.
oilprice.com
The Securities and Exchange Commission has approved rule change applications to allow the first bitcoin ETFs in the United States, paving the way for the long-awaited funds to begin trading as soon as this week.
The decision will likely lead to the conversion of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, which holds about $29 billion of the cryptocurrency, into an ETF, as well as the launch of competing funds from mainstream issuers like BlackRock’s iShares.
www.cnbc.com
The decision will likely lead to the conversion of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, which holds about $29 billion of the cryptocurrency, into an ETF, as well as the launch of competing funds from mainstream issuers like BlackRock’s iShares.
SEC says it did not yet approve Bitcoin ETF, X account was compromised
The Securities and Exchange Commission said Tuesday afternoon that an announcement about bitcoin ETFs on social media was incorrect.
www.cnbc.com
Yesterday, Tesla’s chart had me roll my OTM March calls into ITM calls this week. This has proved to be a solid play so far, anticipate my calls expiring worthless opening up significant cashflow again.
Citigroup said Wednesday after the market close that it is taking one-time charges related to exposures to geopolitical and economic risks in Argentina and Russia as well as the bank’s own restructuring plans. These charges affect its fourth quarter results, due to be reported this Friday. The stock fell about 2% in after hours trading Wednesday.
www.marketwatch.com
Citigroup to Take Billions in Charges on Restructuring, Argentina, and Russia. Stock Slides After Hours.
The bank is adding $1.3 billion to its reserves and taking a $780 million charge due to severance and other costs related to its restructuring efforts.
www.marketwatch.com
Waiting to lock in this promotion… if they halt then I’ll look to Dallas :/
