The problem with Lindsays claim is they are based on fantasy and propaganda that ultimately pushed so hard folks actualy believe it led to Ukrainian counteroffensive faceplanting, gains from which have mostly already been reversed
Many losses based on Orxy ,that when scrutinized in detail has been found massively over counting .When dealing with distinctively Russian-only vehicles , Oryx is probably only making a 25-30% overclaim. When dealing with old Soviet vehicles also used by Ukraine, Oryx is quite unreliable and a 50% overclaim is probably the floor. Same goes for claims of captured equipment official Ukrainian numbers are less than one third of often claimed and touted.
Sometimes there is quite a deja vu vibes to Intel , like Kabul might fall in 6 months ,then it falls in a week
Started ->
Only nine months ago, American intelligence officials were telling the U.S. Senate Armed Services Committee that it would take a decade — or more — for Moscow to recover from the staggering losses inflicted by Ukrainian defenders.
Updated->
The German Council on Foreign Relations refined that estimate last fall, warning that the window would be more like five to eight years.
Now->
Ravaged by war, Russia's army is rebuilding with surprising speed ,Russia Has ‘Almost Completely’ Rebuilt Its Military: US Official ,
Russia's military forces are 15% bigger than they were at start of war, says US intelligence
Russia is reconstituting its army far faster than initial estimates suggested, US Army General Christopher Cavoli, Nato's Supreme Allied Commander in ...
www.intellinews.com
On the other side
While bags of money will continue to go into laundromat ,ultimately is lack of manpower that is the problem
I imagine war will move into long range tit for tat for tweets and likes , there is nothing new aid can do to change the front in meaningful way. Unless Ukraine manages to mobilise additional 450k folks.
When folks talk aid figures most do not understand that for 2 years supply was mostly east block surplus gear withg some western surplus at east block surplus cost, now same Stinger that cost 30-40k last year cost 400k$ Raytheon charges now ,40y old S300 that was valued at couple of million $ is now replaced with Patriot at 1billion a battery and 450mio for a reload. So you would need many time larger aid package than last year just to get equal , EU aid of 50 billion is spread over 5 years.
Faster and the mobilized