I have frequently had bacterial infections and needed antibiotics, and I need clean drinking water on a daily basis. I imagine those needs will continue.
I have never needed a 300 win mag custom build sniper rifle, but it is cool, neat, useful to have, it may potentially be needed. I am far more confident I will need cleaning drinking water as opposed to my 300 win mag custom build "sniper rifle."
The ability to help people resolve their disputes and to negotiate, in a peaceful manner, is also quite an asset. As is being well-regarded and respected on a local level.
If everybody is prepared for their version of infantry or sniper combat, but they're not prepared for daily sanitation, removal of bio-waste from their premises, and access to clean drinking water, they're planning for a 1 in 100,000 sniper duel scenario but not the daily reality of "you're going to die from dysentery and cholera" scenario.
Granted, if a tactical academy ran a course on "how to avoid cholera" few people would pay $300 per course day for that class.
The rifle courses and rifles are because I know how to manage clean drinking water but not everybody wants to do that for themselves, some people believe it would be easier to try to raid others and take their clean water.
I worked out the numbers with a friend who is an officer (and engineer) who works as a strategic war planner in the Pentagon.
If the energy grid goes down in the United States, for any reason (war or anything), within the first month approximately 24 to 37 million Americans will die. This is what I term the "first wave die-off."
It will be anybody dependent on refrigerated medication, by far the largest group being diabetics dependent on insulin. Additionally, anybody on kidney dialysis, most people undergoing cancer treatment, and most people on oxygen. This is the 24 to 37 million mark. This was my estimate and he agreed.
The second wave die-offs will begin to occur two to three months out and will consist of people who are too obese and physically frail to do anything needed to survive, people who weigh 400-500lbs and can't walk to a river to get water, can't split logs for heat for fire wood, can't walk 2 miles into the woods to stalk a deer, they just can't do anything. Approximately 54 million Americans have a significant physical disability. While 45% of Americans are obese, and there is a significant overlap between the physically disabled and the obese. Our estimate is anywhere from 50 million to 100 million in this second wave die-off.
There will also be variations due to the break down of sanitation and many people dying of cholera, dysentery, and other waterborne illnesses, as well as contaminated food, undercooked wild game, societal violence, otherwise treatable infections that won't get treated. This doesn't even get into mass die-off waves in the southern states due to heat waves and lack of air conditioning if the grid goes down in the summer, or people freezing to death in their own homes in northern states if the grid goes down in the winter.
We came up with a ball park estimate that if the grid goes down and stays down for 12 months, upwards of 150 million Americans will die during those 12 months, the vast majority from lack of availability or access to medications, lack of access to clean water, exposure to the elements, the natural consequences of their pre-existing health conditions, and a smaller number due to societal violence.
We didn't even get into the fact that if nuclear power plants begin having Loss of Offsite Power with accompanying "total station blackouts" with an inability to power the cooling systems for decay heat removal in the spent fuel pools, that each spent fuel pool will eventually see containment breached due to the heat from the uncooled spent fuel. Most nuclear power plants have about 14 days of diesel on-site to power the emergency back-up diesels in the event they lose access to the grid and have to power their own emergency systems. After those 14 days are up, if they haven't been getting more diesel and if the grid isn't back up, it is pretty much game over. Imagine somewhere around day 15-16 after a nationwide grid down event, most nuclear power plants begin to experience melting in the spent fuel pools, so you wind up with about 100 communities in the USA that will have significant radiological releases in short order after a grid down. Locals would do well to strive to keep diesel deliveries going to those plants. However, if you've ever seen the diesel generators, they are actual marine diesels, they are massive.
Reevaluation of Station Blackout Risk at Nuclear Power Plants (NUREG/CR-6890)
www.nrc.gov
"Overall, SPAR results indicate that core damage frequencies for LOOP and SBO are lower than previous estimates.
Improvements in emergency diesel generator performance contribute to this risk reduction."
The only downside of an emergency diesel generator is that it requires a LOT of diesel and deliveries of more diesel.
A lot of Americans are also going to die trying to keep alive their retarded, crippled, or obese/fat/lazy relatives and friends who are basically dead weight on a sinking ship. When it comes down to it, most people in our advanced comfortable peaceful docile society aren't capable of making harsh utilitarian calculations and doing a triage based on survival needs over sentimentality. I wouldn't exhaust myself and drown to try to keep a 400lb lard afloat when that guy had all the opportunity in the world to be in shape prior to the crisis. A lot of people will though, out of some misguided sense of obligation or sentimentality.