When will prices come down?

[LilGucci]

So this is really my first venture into the gun market, and it comes at a time of social unrest. Those of you who have survived long periods of panic-buying in the past, do you remember how long it took for prices to return back to normal?

What factors will prolong or shorten it? Will a Biden or Trump victory and presidency effect panic-buying, affect the market one way or the other? What about riots and protests in big cities? Could the current state of the market carry over into the second half of next year?

For those of you who are not worried about this long term and feel that this will subside over the next 4-12 months, should those of us entering the market now wait (if we can) rather than shelling out twice the price for rifles, lowers, etc?

For those of you who are worried about this long term and feel that we might potentially see bans and restrictions if a certain political party (hostile to gun ownership) wins, or feel like the market will be in this state longer than 12 months, what is at the top of your list of things to stock up on now.

Is shelling out $2000 dollars for a 3d-printer/cnc machine a good investment to make glocks, 1911, ar's and ak's at home?

 

[Punkur67]

Overall firearm prices have been slightly above average accept for the entry level stuff. Like guys selling a $250 shotgun for $400-500. I have bought a few toys during all this and the prices were not inflated at all.

Ammo has been where all the inflation is. I found some 5.56 for $0.56 a round. In January that price is outrageous but today its cheap according to the curve. I have watched 5.56 creep from $0.50 up to $0.90 a round in the last couple months and people are paying for it. Also went to buy some 9mm and its $0.60 a round on average. There are places that have better prices but they have nothing in stock. If you want it now you will be paying a premium for it.

My personal opinion would be to get at least something to protect you and your family for now and wait for costs to come down to stockpile. Eventually the panic will die down and supply will come back

 

[ormandj]

Is shelling out $2000 dollars for a 3d-printer/cnc machine a good investment to make glocks, 1911, ar's and ak's at home?

Skipping the rest because you’re asking for advice on how to gamble. Nobody knows how this is going to turn out.

On the CNC and 3D printer front, if that’s something you actually want to enjoy as a hobby, multiply your number by 20x and you’ll be at the right ballpark to start, assuming you skip barrel making from scratch trying to drill a bore. A good used CNC mill is going to set you back 15-20k; so will a small hobby mill such as a Tormach. A manual lathe will run you 5-10k easily. Add in tooling and measurement equipment and you’re easily going to hit 30-40k. You’d still need a lathe, sheet metal tools, a horizontal bandsaw to deal with stock, etc. Then you need to talk software from CAD to CAM.

IMO this is not a viable proposition unless you are serious about doing it as a hobby or business. My credibility == I have all these tools in my home workshop. Been there, done that. You don’t just fire it up and hit print, to make even the simplest of parts. 3D printers are a little more straightforward since you don’t have to deal with fixturing and most measurement equipment isn’t needed so you could do that for a few grand but you won’t be making Glocks on that.

 

[LilGucci]

Skipping the rest because you’re asking for advice on how to gamble. Nobody knows how this is going to turn out.

On the CNC and 3D printer front, if that’s something you actually want to enjoy as a hobby, multiply your number by 20x and you’ll be at the right ballpark to start, assuming you skip barrel making from scratch trying to drill a bore. A good used CNC mill is going to set you back 15-20k; so will a small hobby mill such as a Tormach. A manual lathe will run you 5-10k easily. Add in tooling and measurement equipment and you’re easily going to hit 30-40k. You’d still need a lathe, sheet metal tools, a horizontal bandsaw to deal with stock, etc. Then you need to talk software from CAD to CAM.

IMO this is not a viable proposition unless you are serious about doing it as a hobby or business. My credibility == I have all these tools in my home workshop. Been there, done that. You don’t just fire it up and hit print, to make even the simplest of parts. 3D printers are a little more straightforward since you don’t have to deal with fixturing and most measurement equipment isn’t needed so you could do that for a few grand but you won’t be making Glocks on that.

I was thinking of getting this $2100 system that I saw at Triggercon 2018 by Defense Distributed called the Ghost Gunner, they are for 80% lower receivers, and DD provides the necessary tools and software to produce lowers for AK47's, AR lowers, 1911's, Glocks, etc.

Here is one in action:

Here's their website: https://ghostgunner.net/

 

[G-Dog]

I don’t see prices dropping for at least a year, regardless of who wins. Supply chains are dry, and it will take a while fill back up so to speak. I doubt I’ll see Ammo prices low enough to entice me to start buying again till 2022, best case.

As said above the worst part/firearm shortages are with the low end. Use this as a reason to buy nicer gear.

Buying a machine to make items at home if bans are passed, is a dangerous path. Do not recommend. Buying a machine because it’s cool and you want one, well, we have all done that in one form or another.

 

[LilGucci]

My personal opinion would be to get at least something to protect you and your family for now and wait for costs to come down to stockpile. Eventually the panic will die down and supply will come back

I hope so. I'm stockpiling a few lowers and receiver sets just in case, but after I get a quality $1500 AR-15 like a BCM, I'll be set on the personal defense side of things, and can wait this panic-buying out until the end of 2021.

 

[MTRecon]

There are some things coming in and out of stock. Got 4 back in stock emails on bulk 55 fmjbt bullets only last week and were in stock when I went to the website. Didn't buy due to the inflated prices. I only support vendors who refuse to scalp.

Since I've been through several panics over the years I keep an inventory to last quite a while I draw from then replenish when things slow down.

In my area everyone is so stocked up the only folks caught short are the new shooters. If their actually shooting we try to help them out. It really pays to be nice to the folks at the range.

 

[Charger442]

There are some things coming in and out of stock. Got 4 back in stock emails on bulk 55 fmjbt bullets only last week and were in stock when I went to the website. Didn't buy due to the inflated prices. I only support vendors who refuse to scalp.

So should they sell to you at a loss? Wholesale prices are rising, material prices have risen because Covid has disrupted raw material supply chains globally.

Here's a real simple economics lesson: demand goes up and supply is low, that will push prices up. Period. It's called letting the market set the price. Your " scalp" comment is discouraging as people should know this.

If you're going to only support vendors whose prices are the same as 18 months ago, you're never going to buy anything again. Because those those businesses will have nothing to sell or be out of business

 

[MTRecon]

I'm referring to scalping not justified and legitimate supply chain cost increases just to clarify.

300 percent markup from March can't be justified by material cost increases.

 

[gsd1983]

My morning entertainment has been Gunbroker for the last few days.

Some of the local shops are taking advantage of the increased demand, Blazer 9mm for $28/50, etc. They are getting blasted for it but the retard in charge doesn’t seem to care.

Personal opinion? It will be 12 months at a minimum before supply and prices regain some semblance of what they were even 6 months ago.

 

[MTRecon]

I agree...

 

[seanh]

When will prices come down? Depends on the outcome of the election in the stability of this country thereafter.

Assuming we don't go into some type of civil unrest, prices will come back down rather quickly like to have in the past.

What's going to be funny is when people who weigh over paid for their stuff go to resell it. They will have to take a loss or simply keep it. Back one $800 AR was going for 1500 over $2,000 people were paying it. Couple of years later that $2,000 rifle is really only worth about seven or eight hundred dollars... people can keep it or sell it for the loss and move on... Call it an educational experience... LOL

 

[TxWelder35]

My guess is 36 months until we see the same cheap rock bottom prices that we had 8 months ago. That’s assuming all the riots stop and whichever side loses in November hands over power peacefully. Hint- that’s not going to happen.

Buy high end stuff right now. The prices aren’t crazy inflated on them and will only cost slightly more than the “cheap” stuff. Buy good match/self defense ammo instead of “cheap” fmj ammo. I can currently sell some cheap pmc bronze 223 and make just about enough money to buy mk262 ammo

 

[ormandj]

I was thinking of getting this $2100 system that I saw at Triggercon 2018 by Defense Distributed called the Ghost Gunner, they are for 80% lower receivers, and DD provides the necessary tools and software to produce lowers for AK47's, AR lowers, 1911's, Glocks, etc.

Here is one in action:

Here's their website: https://ghostgunner.net/

If you go that route, you’re still reliant on outside sources for the vast majority of components, including the 80% lower, bcg, small parts, etc. Just buy a bunch of lowers and uppers now and avoid being stuck with something like that. The only “advantage” is keeping yourself off a store registry. You can buy a lot of receivers for 2k, even right now.

 

[cleric]

I'm referring to scalping not justified and legitimate supply chain cost increases just to clarify.

300 percent markup from March can't be justified by material cost increases.

The other aspect is fixed cost allocation. If I used to sell 10000 rounds at 50 cents that’s 5k revenue. Let’s say cost of materials is 3500 so that’s 1500 minus 1000 costs (rent, employees, etc) that’s 500 profit.
Now I get 2000 rounds and cost of goods are 50% higher so 1050. If I still need 1500 for overhead and profit I need sale 2k rounds for 2500 or 1.25 each. (We will eat the $50) So that’s how the prices can go up dramatically, if those fixed costs are spread over less units.

to answer the op question. No one knows. We can play the what if game all day. There is mostly price pressure on entry ARs (although I have seen some signs of them slowing down) and ammo. Ammo is the hard one and it’s always the first to go out of stock. It will take at least a year for things to fully settle down imo as people need confidence it will be available. For examples I would buy primers for general purpose right now even if I didn’t need them immediately.

 

[achancesw]

I expect panic buying to increase if Biden is elected.

My dad passed 3 years ago and I'm still selling off stuff he panic bought during the Obama years