And yet another one for fl

[Northfl]

Looking like a cat 5 hurricane will be hitting the tampa area wed evening thursday morning.
I know a few guys on here live down that way so yall buckle up the house and haul ass outta there
Looking like it will travel across the state and exit into the atlantic.

 

[diverdon]

Sure hope the Frontier Steak House is OK. They've served me four of the best 10 steaks I've ever had.

 

[Inifinty]

Yeah this angle of approach is highly uncommon and is perfect scenario to cause the worst flooding the Tampa/St Pete area has ever seen. I hope that does not come to fruition. But if I still lived in St Pete, I would have had the house boarded up yesterday and would be loading up a UHaul today with what ever I wanted to preserve and get out of town.

It just hit cat 4 and may even make cat 5 before it hits some projected shear that might knock the strength down a bit before landfall.

Tropical Tidbits

Tropical weather and Atlantic hurricane information, analysis, and forecasts by Levi Cowan.

www.tropicaltidbits.com

 

[Whiskey Tango Foxtrot]

So, crossed over from the pacific, across the gulf and Forcast to cross into Atlantic.
This has to be a first.

 

[Northfl]

Just bumped up to a cat 5.

 

[Inifinty]

well that was quick

GTFO

 

[mi650]

My dad and step-mother live in Port Charlotte. They're planning on riding it out.

 

[Camelfilter]

My dad and step-mother live in Port Charlotte. They're planning on riding it out.

Hope things go well for them!

Depending on the track & energy, some areas could see a 100 year type storm. Also hoping such doesn't happen!

 

[sloporsche]

one year in fla and we have dodged 5 storms so far

 

[mi650]

Hope things go well for them!

Depending on the track & energy, some areas could see a 100 year type storm. Also hoping such doesn't happen!

Looks like they're pretty much in the bullseye right now. Really hoping it calms down before landfall, as predicted.

I have an aunt & uncle whose house is about 5 miles away from them, but they're snowbirds and are here in MI now.

 

[Camelfilter]

Looks like they're pretty much in the bullseye right now. Really hoping it calms down before landfall, as predicted.

I have an aunt & uncle whose house is about 5 miles away from them, but they're snowbirds and are here in MI now.

Yikes! Mayhaps talk them into true staging for a go/no go for Wednesday morning?

Edit: tomorrow night would be better...

 

[Inifinty]

My dad and step-mother live in Port Charlotte. They're planning on riding it out.

Property is not worth it. It can all be had again. Many times I think people stick it out cause they don't want to deal with being inconvenienced with evacuation.

If they are in any of the predefined evacuation zones you might want to convince them to change their plans. Let's all hope this is just a landscape event with some trees blown over. But it is not shaping up that way.

 

[LeftyJason]

What is the tide supposed to be when it hits?

 

[Inifinty]

one year in fla and we have dodged 5 storms so far

With exception of hurricanes Charlie in 2004 and then Ian in 2022, the west coast of Florida in recent history has largely enjoyed a pass from most direct landfalls.

This one is going to slam the west coast very hard as the NHC currently shows, and zip right through Orlando with hurricane strength still.

 

[sloporsche]

With exception of hurricanes Charlie in 2004 and then Ian in 2022, the west coast of Florida in recent history has largely enjoyed a pass from most direct landfalls.

This one is going to slam the west coast very hard as the NHC currently shows, and zip right through Orlando with hurricane strength still.

we are in the panhandle ....the lucky part so far

 

[Inifinty]

What is the tide supposed to be when it hits?

Its about timing. Right now NHC shows landfall at approx 7PM.

Tide will have started rising in St Pete. at 4pm. Wednesday afternoon and will start to peak around 4am the next morning.

The approach angle though is what is so bad. Tide is not a worse case scenario but it is not helping.

 

[Schütze]

What is the tide supposed to be when it hits?

Low tide for Tampa Bay is 2:19pm Wednesday.
Difficult to predict at what time a storm of this size keeps the bay from draining.

 

[Fx51LP308]

I'm just north of Tampa Bay. I will be sheltering in place as well. But I'm a bit "inland" so it will be primarily a wind concern for me. Just have to make sure there is no debris around to bump into the windows, etc. and that the roof on my sun porch stays in tact.

 

[mi650]

Yikes! Mayhaps talk them into true staging for a go/no go for Wednesday morning?

Edit: tomorrow night would be better...

I told him they could come here. He said if it was gonna stay a cat 5, they would.

It's not like the drive is a problem, they've done it dozens of times. They left here about a month ago.

 

[Inifinty]

Hurricane "Phoenix", a theoretical worst case scenario. The parts of Pinellas county that do not flood will become an island with much of South Tampa and the west coast of the bay under water.

26 feet of water: What the worst-case hurricane scenario looks like for Tampa Bay

We’re not prepared for the hurricanes that hit today. In the future, they’ll be worse.

www.vox.com

 

[mi650]

Property is not worth it. It can all be had again. Many times I think people stick it out cause they don't want to deal with being inconvenienced with evacuation.

If they are in any of the predefined evacuation zones you might want to convince them to change their plans. Let's all hope this is just a landscape event with some trees blown over. But it is not shaping up that way.

Yep, it's the inconvenience of getting back home.

 

[sirhrmechanic]

Meanwhile,
In Florida…

 

[theLBC]

yeah, crazy how it picked up so much already. prayers to the folks in its path.

 

[rustyinbend]

Hope things go well for them!

Depending on the track & energy, some areas could see a 100 year type storm. Also hoping such doesn't happen!

I'm not believing the "100-year storm" thing anymore. How many 100-year storms have we had in the last 10 years? Answer: Several. The fact that Hurricane Milton went from a Tropical Storm to a Cat-5 Hurricane in 24 hours, is just stunning. My fear is that this is the new "normal".

 

[akmike47]

Sure hope the Frontier Steak House is OK. They've served me four of the best 10 steaks I've ever had.

That’s a very Hank hill thing to say

 

[akmike47]

I'm not believing the "100-year storm" thing anymore. How many 100-year storms have we had in the last 10 years? Answer: Several. The fact that Hurricane Milton went from a Tropical Storm to a Cat-5 Hurricane in 24 hours, is just stunning. My fear is that this is the new "normal".

It just means there’s a 1% chance of it happening in any year. So multiple things can happen that qualify. It has never meant it’s a once in 100 year occurrence.

Thats sort of like saying “I don’t believe in world records because they keep being broken”

 

[Inifinty]

 

[MO Fugga]

one year in fla and we have dodged 5 storms so far

Lived in Tampa for 20 years and never had to deal with it. Glad I left that shithole 20 years ago.

 

[lash]

Looking like a cat 5 hurricane will be hitting the tampa area wed evening thursday morning.
I know a few guys on here live down that way so yall buckle up the house and haul ass outta there
Looking like it will travel across the state and exit into the atlantic.

Yeah, this is shaping up to be about like Charlie was in 2004. The eye literally passed over us here and we were without power for 13 days. Just like then, the light rains have been softening up the soil the past couple days so I expect a lot of downed trees once the winds get here.

You guys up near Jacksonville are going to get a lot a stuff too, being on the northeast side of it.

 

[akmike47]

Prayers up folks

Like it or not I’ll still do it

 

[redneckbmxer24]

We had dinner out Friday night before this storm became a thing and gave our table we had been seated at to a larger group that came in a while after us and moved to another. They were very appreciative and said they were leaving Sunday to go back to Montana and asked if we wanted to go… I should have taken their offer seriously

 

[Blue Sky Country]

Holy shit the South just cannot get a break this year...

Prayers to everyone in the path of this new one and those affected by Helene. MAINTAIN LOCAL COMMS AND ESTABLISH CLEAR CHANNELS FOR ALL. No tolerance is to be given for any fucktard business from the powers that be.

 

[Threadcutter308]

Looks like the word(s) of the day are "Get the hell out"......

 

[akmike47]

Looks like the word(s) of the day are "Get the hell out"......

Shitty part is they only have other storm fucked places to go really without driving far as hell for sure

 

[Threadcutter308]

Shitty part is they only have other storm fucked places to go really without driving far as hell for sure

Take care Bud and ride it out the best you can.

 

[akmike47]

Take care Bud and ride it out the best you can.

I’m not there I’m just participating

 

[nagantguy]

Wishing the best to those in the path - safe travels to those that leave and Hopi g the best to those that ride it out for whatever reason .

Sure seems we are under Judgement.

 

[Schütze]

I told him they could come here. He said if it was gonna stay a cat 5, they would.

It's not like the drive is a problem, they've done it dozens of times. They left here about a month ago.

Traffic northbound is already getting worse.

 

[EddieNFL]

we are in the panhandle ....the lucky part so far

Did 35 years in NWFL. The most likely target of any hurricane in the gulf.

 

[reelserious]

I am getting sick of this shit

 

[akmike47]

It’s some bullshit everywhere

 

[Dead Eye Dick]

It just means there’s a 1% chance of it happening in any year. So multiple things can happen that qualify. It has never meant it’s a once in 100 year occurrence.

Thats sort of like saying “I don’t believe in world records because they keep being broken”

In 2005 we had Katrina and Rita. But then Cameron seems to be a hurricane magnet. Laura was the last one we had and she stayed hurricane strength until reaching Arkansas.

Speaking of riding it out. We rode out Typhoon Hester in CHU LAI in 1971. 140mph winds. We couldn’t leave. But what I saw, keeps me from riding out another one on the coast. Fortunately, where our compound was, there was a 50 foot bluff protecting us from the storm surge.

Ever seen what a piece of tin can do, flying on edge at 140 miles per hour? You don’t want to.

This 100 year stuff is jsut something for gov types to say to make the public think all is well (since we just had the 100 yerar flood, hundred year hurricane, hundred year drought, hundred year tornado outbreak.).

In the last 100 years we’ve had Four Category 5 hurricanes make landfall in the United States
1935 Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 (strongest on record to make landfall in the US)
1969 Camille - Bay St. Louis, Mississippi
1992 Andrew - Florida, and then Louisiana
2018 Michael - Mexico Beach, Florida

Plus both Katrina and Rita were Category 5 storms but dropped in intensity before they made landfall

So, I call that four 100 yeer storms since 1935.

And that’s not counting the dangerous storms like the Galveston Hurricane of 1900, Audrey that took out Cameron in 1957, Katrina and Rita, of 2005, Laura of 2020, and of course my all time favorite (because it hit the fabled and all important new jerk city which was the most disastrous Super Storm SANDY, which I might add, might not even make the news if it made landfall in Louisiana or Mississippi being such a weak storm. But of course, if it occurs in new jerk city, it’s a world disaster.

Hurricane…. its an old indian word for

GET THE HELL OUT OF DODGE!

 

[EddieNFL]

…and of course my all time favorite (because it hit the fabled and all important new jerk city which was the most disastrous Super Storm SANDY, which I might add, might not even make the news if it made landfall in Louisiana or Mississippi being such a weak storm.

Truth.

 

[Northfl]

Meanwhile,
In Florida…

View attachment 8519259

Hey thats building is about 10 miles from me

 

[akmike47]

In 2005 we had Katrina and Rita. But then Cameron seems to be a hurricane magnet. Laura was the last one we had and she stayed hurricane strength until reaching Arkansas.

Speaking of riding it out. We rode out Typhoon Hester in CHU LAI in 1971. 140mph winds. We couldn’t leave. But what I saw, keeps me from riding out another one on the coast. Fortunately, where our compound was, there was a 50 foot bluff protecting us from the storm surge.

Ever seen what a piece of tin can do, flying on edge at 140 miles per hour? You don’t want to.

This 100 year stuff is jsut something for gov types to say to make the public think all is well (since we just had the 100 yerar flood, hundred year hurricane, hundred year drought, hundred year tornado outbreak.).

In the last 100 years we’ve had Four Category 5 hurricanes make landfall in the United States
1935 Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 (strongest on record to make landfall in the US)
1969 Camille - Bay St. Louis, Mississippi
1992 Andrew - Florida, and then Louisiana
2018 Michael - Mexico Beach, Florida

Plus both Katrina and Rita were Category 5 storms but dropped in intensity before they made landfall

So, I call that four 100 yeer storms since 1935.

And that’s not counting the dangerous storms like the Galveston Hurricane of 1900, Audrey that took out Cameron in 1957, Katrina and Rita, of 2005, Laura of 2020, and of course my all time favorite (because it hit the fabled and all important new jerk city which was the most disastrous Super Storm SANDY, which I might add, might not even make the news if it made landfall in Louisiana or Mississippi being such a weak storm. But of course, if it occurs in new jerk city, it’s a world disaster.

Hurricane…. its an old indian word for

GET THE HELL OUT OF DODGE!

You still obviously don’t understand. This is the one time I’ll side with the government because you can’t grasp what the term means.

Zero percent of the term “100 year….” Is supposed to make you think all is well. The whole 1% chance of it happening should explain that.

You’ve thrown logic out the window because you don’t grasp what it means. In the simplest terms it means freak storm.

Replacing 100 years with 100% would make each year 1%. There’s a 1% chance that a storm will reach a certain magnitude each year going off old patterns, it doesn’t mean it can only happen once in 100 years. You can have 10 freak storms in 1 year. They just beat the odds.


Also don’t gamble

 

[Northfl]

we at work are watching it pretty close as we do all storms here. The pressure is at 911mb. Hurricane andrew ripped across south florida at landfall was 922 mb. It fucked almost everything in its path
This storm aint the riding out kind of storm. Its the ride the fuck out of the way storm.
Also there are a9 powerplants in its projected path
The plants can and will go into shutdown before this hits, and can be started back up ( depending on damage) fairly quickly, and start making power but there may not be any lines to send it over

 

[mosin46]

seems odd. both milton and helene started out as not much and reached 4/5 levels fast and moving fast. if it goes in thru tampa bay,the damage will exceed andrew. west hillsbourgh county and most of pasco/pinellas,some of hernando are very low and heavily developed. west side of state got hit hard by helene. tampa gen hosp is about 3' below sea level and has had storm/flood problems in the past. i am well out of flood zone will get any damage from wind. all trees are away from the house. ground is saturated,so,could get some flooding from heavy rain accumulation. family is in bradenton and naples so they will get hit hard. they are away from the coast,wind will be their problem as well. this on top of helene will make the gulf beaches almost impossible to rebuild in < 10 years.
IF i were paranoid,would wonder about the ability of the weather to be controlled or influenced. and,another red area hit,fl being mostly rep. gr son is in NG and was activated yesterday. likely going to tampa i bet. looting there is gonna be huge.

 

[Northfl]

Yeah, this is shaping up to be about like Charlie was in 2004. The eye literally passed over us here and we were without power for 13 days. Just like then, the light rains have been softening up the soil the past couple days so I expect a lot of downed trees once the winds get here.

You guys up near Jacksonville are going to get a lot a stuff too, being on the northeast side of it.

Yup they already talking about sending us home wed and thursday. We already have 1 unit offline for outage, one been off for economy outage. Still hav ol reliable online as of now. They havent talked about bringing it off as of yet though.
Last storm i rode out here at the plant we had a tornado spin up the river and knocked over the structure over one of the transformers and had a full load trip. Thats always fun. Go from sleeping comfortably to balls to the wall in 5 kinutes

 

[akmike47]

Doesn’t Tampa have shallow bays that have weakened storms before?

 

[mosin46]

we at work are watching it pretty close as we do all storms here. The pressure is at 911mb. Hurricane andrew ripped across south florida at landfall was 922 mb. It fucked almost everything in its path
This storm aint the riding out kind of storm. Its the ride the fuck out of the way storm.
Also there are a9 powerplants in its projected path
The plants can and will go into shutdown before this hits, and can be started back up ( depending on damage) fairly quickly, and start making power but there may not be any lines to send it overView attachment 8519328

yea andrew was unreal. damage so bad closed holmstead AFB for keeps. i drove thru naranja 2 years after and it still looked like dresden in ww2. if it had gone in 20m farher no,the damage would have been 5x the $. holmstead and naranja were at best mid/mid class and mostly lower. coral gables and palmetto bay/pinecrest not the same. i am afraid of what this will do to tampa and the suncoast. gonna be nucl level bad i fear.