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Stock Market
- Thread starter pmclaine
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Definitely, but I don't think we're quite at the "generational buying opportunity" just yet. Judging by the comments on social media, it feels like there is at least one more sucker rally left in this clunker.
We are at this point precisely because of emotional irrational trading. Nvidia was trading at a price-to-sales ratio of more than 30, and apparently much of this was funded by borrowing money in a currency that was weakening at the historically unprecedented and totally unsustainable rate. What happens to bring this market into alignment with reality will be cold and rational, at least at first. When you see the S&P dip below 3000, then we can start talking again about irrational behavior.
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So, here's a fun thought experiment - if indeed this crash is sparked by the strengthening of the yen relative to the USD in a manner that undermines the carry trade associated with these currencies, what happens when the Fed does an emergency rate cut in the next week or two? Probably like like what happened a couple of weeks ago when I got rid of some stale two-stroke fuel mix by pouring it into a 5-gal bucket and splashing it on the bonfire. Much like the Fed, I'm limited to the tools that are made available.
I’m looking at tangible goods. The stores, dealerships, trades, etc have pushed too far on prices. I’ve been waiting for a deflationary period since 2020. Definitely didn’t see multiple trillions of dollars being pumped.
I’m hoping to see some post 2008 action where contractors are beating down my door to compete for my money, $40k F-250 super duty trucks, and I have some other things in my list.
I wish I was in office with my Bloombeeg terminal to see what the 3Y, 5Y, 10Y and 20Y Yen fwd pts are at current spot.
50bps cut is getting further priced in causing a USD sell off. Other currencies will follow.
50bps cut is getting further priced in causing a USD sell off. Other currencies will follow.
I want an extended cab side by side - waiting for all the "toys" to hit the market as consumers are overextended. Boats, ATVs, vacation homes, RVs, and so on
Oh buddy, I'm sitting on some cash and a long shopping list for when we get to that point. I'm hoping this extends to some light industrial real estate, as I'm outgrowing my home shop.
I'd also like to see those, although I'm guessing that they all amount to basically rounding errors in the neighborhood of 0.25%. And that's where we are still way out of wack with reality, seeing as how Japan's demographics suggest that it barely exists towards the longer end of the yield curve.
Car dealers in middle Georgia packed full of new vehicles that are not moving; expensive vehicles + high interest rates = vehicles sitting on lots
Same here! I’ve been shopping for a building in the industrial sector of where I am. I’m not against spending money, but what I’m buying has to have value and putting up a large enough shop is just more than I find reasonable.
Spent almost 6 months telling multiple bidders that they’re smoking crack.
Between the size I want, 3 phase power, ventilation, etc I’ll be north of a million. I think in the next 1-2 years I’ll be able to buy a building with the size and electrical I need, and be able to upgrade it for less. Maybe. I’m expecting some fire sales on industrial machines as well.
CJDR dealers around here are packed. Want a Wrangler or Gladiator? They have rows of them - just not at attractive prices. That part will work itself out in due time.
Probably accurate:
The real fun doesn't start until regional banks begin to implode for some esoteric reason that no one expected.
The real fun doesn't start until regional banks begin to implode for some esoteric reason that no one expected.
Meanwhile as the markets burn, the ISM report comes in looking... actually not that bad?!?
finance.yahoo.com
This probably isn't bullish, as it (should) constrain the Fed's ability and willingness to cut rates.
US service sector rebounds in July; employment also recovers
U.S. services sector activity rebounded from a four-year low in July amid a rise in orders and employment, which could help to quash fears of a recession that were sparked by a surge in the unemployment rate last month. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said on Monday that its...
This probably isn't bullish, as it (should) constrain the Fed's ability and willingness to cut rates.
I picked up a 2024 Grand Cherokee with tow package for $36,000 last week. Deals are coming. It drives so much better than my dead fish 4Runners. Might sell one of those slugs.
See any White Cherokees on the lots - they call them Elizabeth Warrens
What has nvidias earning been doing over the last, say 4 years?
What % of the ai chip market do they have?
who is there closest competitor and how far behind are they? What % of the market do they control?
Is ai going away?
How long has their ceo been there? and how has the company preformed under his guidance?
Is the rest of their management team solid?
oh, one more...
Is there another large cap company that is increasing earning more?
All serious questions as I dont have all the answers to these.
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What has nvidias earning been doing over the last, say 4 years?
What % of the ai chip market do they have?
who is there closest competitor and how far behind are they? What % of the market do they control?
Is ai going away?
How long has their ceo been there? and how has the company preformed under his guidance?
Is the rest of their management team solid?
oh, one more...
Is there another large cap company that is increasing earning more?
All serious questions as I dont have all the answers to these.
I agree that those are all solid questions, and I also lack the answers to most of them because we are very early in the AI hype cycle. This is why I am not currently willing to allocate large amounts of my hard-earned capital towards a laundry-list of what-ifs, all of which need to be answered strongly in Nvidia's favor simply to justify the present value of the stock. Jensen Huang is a rock star and he should be incredibly proud of what he's built and rewarded accordingly, but I don't feel compelled to do it with my money.
Obviously, the operative phrase in my statement is "hard-earned". Most of the capital getting thrown around the market right now is anything but, so people are willing to make bets that are IMO excessively risky. Sometimes those bets get rewarded, but anyone who thinks that there's a near-100% chance of profit has historically received an education on risk vs reward.
lol... yeah... if you are dumping all in on one stock betting on a 100% chance of profit I wish you the best, but im doubting you would survive that . And if you did it was beyond stupid.
Do me one favor. look back to 7-31-2020 and the p/e and eps on nvidia and look at it right now.
Which was more "expensive".
I like nvidia. I think its a solid company. I wanted to buy it 15 years ago but was way to chicken.
Man if i had only done that.....
Bit of a disclaimer. I cap all my individual stocks at 5% of the holdings in that portfolio with only a rare exception. Thats about as much as i want to risk on a single company.
Do me one favor. look back to 7-31-2020 and the p/e and eps on nvidia and look at it right now.
Which was more "expensive".
I like nvidia. I think its a solid company. I wanted to buy it 15 years ago but was way to chicken.
Man if i had only done that.....
Bit of a disclaimer. I cap all my individual stocks at 5% of the holdings in that portfolio with only a rare exception. Thats about as much as i want to risk on a single company.
I'm a nobody, and not huge into markets, so my opinion is meaningless.
But I do feel that AI is pretty overvalued as a technology. It's way overhyped, and certainly a bubble. Eventually its going to come crashing back to earth when people start to realize the limitations and actual utility of AI.
It's a technology that's been promised to revolution almost everything - and that's an incredibly hard thing to live up to.
It’s happening here, still low key though. Chaos gets my blood pumping. Really curious to see how things go the next few months.
I got an article on AI that I will post if I can find if again. I started reading it and accidentally closed the window.
To be honest, I have read a few that scared the hell out of me. And it was about stuff they did many years back.
To be honest, I have read a few that scared the hell out of me. And it was about stuff they did many years back.
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And buyers squeezed harder than ever before by inflation of everyday costs, while taxes of all types eat away more and more.
I agree about betting on one stock, but the problem is that about 30% of the S&P's current value is in the Mag 7, and pretty much all of those stocks have been riding on the same AI hypothesis, and so we are getting ever closer to the point of being able to say as Nvidia goes so does the rest of the market.
Honest question - were you actively trading during the dot-com era?
Much of the inflation was greedflation, and manufacturers, fast food, car dealers, grocery stores, tradesmen, lumber suppliers, etc have inadvertently caused their own deflation.
Most interesting indeed.
I'm currently paying nearly $200/month to insure my summer car, and it's 12 years old and worth less than the typical new crossover. I imagine those who are riding around in shiny new trucks and SUVs are paying considerably more, and that's not chump change for anyone who's working for a living.
Active no.
I bought 2
Cisco and sunmicro.
As a side note of no value. Those where the first two I ever bought.
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Did you at the historic p/e?
Oh, and you may want to look at when the shift from video card chips to more ai related chips.
I don’t see the demand for high speed chips ceasing.
If you want an adjacent and possible “safer” trade energy generation might be interesting.
Some of these data centers use as much as a small city and they are closing coal plants right and left while not replacing them with a reliable option.
Oh, and you may want to look at when the shift from video card chips to more ai related chips.
I don’t see the demand for high speed chips ceasing.
If you want an adjacent and possible “safer” trade energy generation might be interesting.
Some of these data centers use as much as a small city and they are closing coal plants right and left while not replacing them with a reliable option.
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Yeah, but look at what that greed and the resultant short-term profits was able to do for companies like GM. You don't get to 5% ROI without breaking a few eggs.
True. People still see value in GM’s products at this time. Ford and Stellantis hate you.
Yes, although now each $ is worth a lot less in terms of value of goods equivalent. Funny thing is, tax rates are on the $$ value of income and goods, so higher wages is still like flying a Cessna 150 into a box canyon.
True, but deflation should even things out a bit as long as it’s allowed to happen. Unlikely though so it’s still a good thing to bet on the money printer.
OK, so you should know as well as anyone how this might play out.
My biggest tech fuck-up was A123 (AONE), because I thought that the battery manufacturers would be the one to benefit from any sort of surge in EVs and hybrids. Not the wrong hypothesis, not even the wrong battery chemistry (LiFePO is the basis of CATL's offerings), but definitely not the right company at the right time.
Yep - I'd like to see people being rewarded for savings instead of punished, so deflation is fine by me. I'm not carrying any debt which requires maintenance, so I'd be fine with taking a haircut on my wages if it means saving more at the grocery store and parts counter.
I agree.
I’ll give a few negatives.
Congress is talking about launching a monopoly investigation into nvidia ( personally I think this is a joke but its political so who knows)
China could invade Taiwan. All tech is screwed as well as the rest of the markets. Semi-conductors are screwed save maybe Texas Instruments.
A black swan event, either global or company ( crwd broke the internet, that’s a great example of something like this)
The debt implodes. This will happen it’s just when
Plenty of deadly possibilities floating around out there.
I’ll give a few negatives.
Congress is talking about launching a monopoly investigation into nvidia ( personally I think this is a joke but its political so who knows)
China could invade Taiwan. All tech is screwed as well as the rest of the markets. Semi-conductors are screwed save maybe Texas Instruments.
A black swan event, either global or company ( crwd broke the internet, that’s a great example of something like this)
The debt implodes. This will happen it’s just when
Plenty of deadly possibilities floating around out there.
I would love to see Powell grow some balls and quit catering to the public outcry for lower rates. What in the absolute fuck are people talking about lowering rates for when a dozen eggs is still $8 at the store, the debt has hit $35T, and in the last two years the fed hasn't even come CLOSE to lowering it's balance sheet in a meaningful way. The bond market moved the yield curve higher simply due to inflation premiums rising, NOT because the fed increased supply of bonds for sale.
Fuck the global economy, I want to see a 20% ten year again, THEN we can start talking about quantitative easing again.
Fuck the global economy, I want to see a 20% ten year again, THEN we can start talking about quantitative easing again.
The medicine needed and what the patient is willing to take is not the same.
While I fully agree with this sentiment, the fact of the matter is that the $35T in debt that you mentioned needs to be serviced by continuously rolling over fresh Treasuries, and so we can't have "higher for longer" rates or the federal government goes bankrupt. And while that sounds like fun, it probably has some other ramifications that outweigh the schadenfraude that I'd feel by watching Yellen admit that she fucked up.
The debt will never implode as long as it’s backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. military.
The big issue with deflation is once it eliminates greedflation margins you’ll start to see the lays offs increase significantly.
IMO that time is coming in the next 6 months to a year.
Have your ducks in a row. Many screaming for lower prices aren’t in the financial situation to survive and/or benefit from it because they’ll lose their jobs, have hours cut back, etc. it gets worse as it spirals, but I’m preaching to the choir here.
The big issue with deflation is once it eliminates greedflation margins you’ll start to see the lays offs increase significantly.
IMO that time is coming in the next 6 months to a year.
Have your ducks in a row. Many screaming for lower prices aren’t in the financial situation to survive and/or benefit from it because they’ll lose their jobs, have hours cut back, etc. it gets worse as it spirals, but I’m preaching to the choir here.
Just what kinda shape is that in and how’s that going?
Edit: We are in the twilight of a fading empire.
The U.S. military is still extremely capable of fucking up the world. To think otherwise is asinine.
My former employer is investing heavily in AI. Manufacturing firm. AI will destroy white collar jobs.
