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Stock Market
- Thread starter pmclaine
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Yes, 39! Actually it’s touch and go. PFE has a great dividend and a low PE compared to Pharma average. They have been punished, the price is where it was at the beginning of the pandemic and they get no credit for the money they put in the bank for acquisitions etc
I hope Tesla closes just below $250.00. I'm looking to continue rolling forward each week. If we open Monday just below $250.00 I will probably sell calls at $275.
Well… I’m back at it. Let’s see if my $265 Tesla calls end up executing. If so, I’m about to be 90% cash 
OK Guy's, I'm going to "Go out on a limb" here. Feel free to cut the limb off at any time S3th
The "Go Green / EV / Sustainability" movement will falter when Government money dwindles and reality sets in.
The long term play in the Stock Market will be Oil / Gas, Nuke, Coal, etc.... Just call it the "Dirty Energy Group". The small "Wild Cat" / independent players in the sector will be bought up by the Mega Players. Shares of some of the smaller players are affordable at this time. They will suddenly pop up, overnight, when being bought out.
The "Go Green / EV / Sustainability" movement will falter when Government money dwindles and reality sets in.
The long term play in the Stock Market will be Oil / Gas, Nuke, Coal, etc.... Just call it the "Dirty Energy Group". The small "Wild Cat" / independent players in the sector will be bought up by the Mega Players. Shares of some of the smaller players are affordable at this time. They will suddenly pop up, overnight, when being bought out.
IF you were go actually get Nuclear power going back in a big way without all the stupid B.S. that they make so that innovation and improvements and much safer systems are impossible to get approved, electric vehicles would actually suddenly make a whole lot of sense, especially if you are in a country that doesn't have tons of oil and refineries.
But remember it's all about the big guys having total control and keeping it all for themselves and flexing on the poors, this happens on a country level as well and has been for thousands of years.
The American government does not and will not let China control this new market. Hence the IRA. The amount of private and government investment and diversifying out of China will continue in the billions for year's to come.
A morning headline. It links to a Pay Wall. But, that headline says it all.
Stocks open lower on Wall Street after global flurry of interest-rate increases
But, that headline says it all.
The rest of the world's financial markets have lost confidence in America's FED Reserve. Each and every one that raises interest rates are "going it on their own".
Why ? Because it has become obvious that the FED Reserve has become politicized. Yesterday, Jerome Powell stated "It's going to take a long time to get inflation under control". He is wrong. The FED has purposely failed to raise interest rates above the inflation rate. The FED is a laggard. What a passive / aggressive way to continue the "Great Reset". While sounding aggressive the FED is allowing inflation to increase at a rate never seen by Americans before. The government's number of a current inflation rate of 4% is so far off it becomes believable by the sheeple...... Until their credit card is maxed our and their savings is gone.
It's all good, until it's not.
The rest of the world marches on.
Stocks open lower on Wall Street after global flurry of interest-rate increases
But, that headline says it all.
The rest of the world's financial markets have lost confidence in America's FED Reserve. Each and every one that raises interest rates are "going it on their own".
Why ? Because it has become obvious that the FED Reserve has become politicized. Yesterday, Jerome Powell stated "It's going to take a long time to get inflation under control". He is wrong. The FED has purposely failed to raise interest rates above the inflation rate. The FED is a laggard. What a passive / aggressive way to continue the "Great Reset". While sounding aggressive the FED is allowing inflation to increase at a rate never seen by Americans before. The government's number of a current inflation rate of 4% is so far off it becomes believable by the sheeple...... Until their credit card is maxed our and their savings is gone.
It's all good, until it's not.
The rest of the world marches on.
This reminds me of the "Hunt Brother's" and their plan around Thursday, March 27, 1980. What you are describing is a high stakes poker game in which one player (China or America) will eventually call the other's bluff. They are both playing with other people's money. In the end, what will the winner really get ?
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What did the Hunt brothers do to the silver market?
Instead of closing out contracts with cash settlements, a common procedure on the commodities market, the Hunts took delivery on silver. They then stockpiled this silver and used their large cash reserves to buy up even more futures. The billions in demand triggered the rise of silver to more than $50 per ounce.
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Silver Thursday: How Two Wealthy Traders Cornered the Market
Find out how the largest speculative attempt to corner the market went awry.
I wish I could shake the thought that the whole Stock Market (Globally) is like Professional Wrestling - It's all a show and a Game that benefits the richest of the rich. Political News is manipulated to create market reaction and the Big Players own all the Politicians and Media Personalities and push them buttons to their timing and profit.
I'm convinced it's owned and operated - I just play because I put my money where The Big Kids have their money and ride their coat tails by playing The Game. Wish I could convince myself otherwise but every time I look for evidence it's not rigged/controlled I end up with the conclusion it most certainly *is* manipulated and owned/operated.
VooDoo
I'm convinced it's owned and operated - I just play because I put my money where The Big Kids have their money and ride their coat tails by playing The Game. Wish I could convince myself otherwise but every time I look for evidence it's not rigged/controlled I end up with the conclusion it most certainly *is* manipulated and owned/operated.
VooDoo
Ford Just Shoved 'All In' (NYSE:F)
I list what I see as potential pitfalls to Ford Motor Company's
seekingalpha.com
After thinking about Ford Motor Company's (NYSE:F) recent moves, it finally dawned on me the CEO Jim Farley has essentially "shoved all in." Farley has basically bet the entire future of Ford on his lofty electric vehicle ("EV") aspirations. The problem is, I am not 100% sure whether Ford is holding the "nuts" at this time or if they are just bluffing. Nevertheless, high risk equals high reward. They say you can't win a no-limit hold 'em tournament without going all in at least once, and I believe that.
Even so, with this piece, I wanted to focus on what I see as the major risks and pitfalls to Ford's EV plans. Further, hopefully the prescient Seeking Alpha members who read this will add their two cents as well. In the corporate consulting world we would call this a "spit-balling" session. This is where someone would purpose a recommendation, and then the rest of us would do our best to shoot holes in it to see if it actually held water. Let's get started.
Major Risks & Pitfalls To Ford's EV Strategy
Targets Too Aggressive
My first issue is the fact CEO Jim Farley seems to have set very aggressive goals for Ford's foray into the EV space.
Ford plans to be profitable by 2026
lll
Ford
Ford is making huge investments in cost-saving initiatives across the board to achieve an 8% EBIT margin on EVs by the end of 2026. The company is currently losing money on the entire EV proposition. Just about everything will have to go right to make the 8% EBIT target a reality in my mind. The next lofty target has to do with unit production estimates.
Ford plans to produce 600,000 EVs by 2023
lll
Ford
On top of the profitability goal, Ford has also stated it plans to produce at least 600,000 EVs by the end of 2023 and 2 million EV units by the end of 2026. According to Car and driver:
"Of these 600,000 EVs, 270,000 will be the Mach-E, with Ford predicting 150,000 sales of the Lightning and E-Transit each and 30,000 units of a yet-to-be-revealed electric SUV for Europe.
Ford aims to increase its annual EV production to 2 million units by the end of 2026 and says it has sourced 70 percent of the battery capacity needed for this target."
I almost wish Farley hadn't said that. Nonetheless, it is out there now. If Ford misses the bar and has to pull back on their targets, this won't be good news.
Moving on, the second-largest risk I see to the plan is the fact there are so many new moving parts being put into place at one time.
Everything Everywhere All At Once
When I think of Ford's current state of affairs, I can't help being reminded of the title of the recent Oscar Award Winning movie for Best Picture, "Everything Everywhere All at Once." Ford seems to be attempting to do this very thing.
ll
Ford
In addition to Ford launching into an entirely new line of business, Ford has also just performed a complete reorganization of their corporate structure. The fact of the matter is the company was in dire need of a reorg, that is for sure. Even so, oftentimes when you do perform these types of processes you tend to uncover additional hidden costs that you had not anticipated in the first place. What's more, you inevitably run into issues with the timeline and have to push out target dates due to unexpected delays. This costs you time and money.
If Ford has to push out target dates and lower profitability expectations due to unforeseen issues arising, I don't see Wall Street analysts or shareholders giving them much quarter. Nonetheless, there are many positives as well. See slide below.
lll
Ford
So there are definitely pluses and minuses to performing this type of cleanup reorg. Yet, to be able to do a full-blown corporate reorganization and start up an entirely new line of business is a tall order. Let's just hope the Ford executives included enough slack time in their projections to give them sufficient leeway to hit the numbers.
I remember learning this lesson the hard way as a young project manager just out of college. I was given my first project assignment and I gave a very aggressive target completion date to try and impress my boss. When I was a day late getting the finished product to him due to unforeseen circumstances, he was not impressed. After that, I would always add two days onto my target completion dates to account for any hidden issues that seem to always pop up. Then I would turn the results in a day early and be praised for bringing the project early. It's all a matter of perception.
The third issue I see for Ford is their attempt at vertical integration.
Vertical Integration Issues
Ford recently announced big plans to vertically integrate the production of EVs with two new huge campuses. Ford stated:
"Ford Motor Company is announcing plans to bring electric vehicles at scale to American customers with two new massive, environmentally and technologically advanced campuses in Tennessee and Kentucky that will produce the next generation of electric F-Series trucks and the batteries to power future electric Ford and Lincoln vehicles.
Ford plans to make the largest ever U.S. investment in electric vehicles at one time by any automotive manufacturer and, together with its partner, SK Innovation, plans to invest $11.4 billion and create nearly 11,000 new jobs at the Tennessee and Kentucky mega-sites, strengthening local communities and building on Ford's position as America's leading employer of hourly autoworkers.
An all-new $5.6 billion mega campus in Stanton, Tenn., called BlueOval City, will create approximately 6,000 new jobs and reimagine how vehicles and batteries are manufactured.
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Ford
BlueOval City will become a vertically integrated ecosystem for Ford to assemble an expanded lineup of electric F-Series vehicles and will include a BlueOval SK battery plant, key suppliers and recycling. Ford's new Tennessee assembly plant is designed to be carbon neutral with zero waste to landfill once fully operational."
Since I have been using the titles of movies and poker game moves as metaphors for this piece, I figured why stop now! This part of Ford's plan reminds me of a line from my favorite TV show as a kid, Star Trek, "To go where no man has gone before."
Just like most things in life, things don't always turn out the way you planned. I can see lots of issues arising from attempting to accomplish this lofty goal. Not to mention the fact the issues that may arise from the logistics and raw material cost of getting the batteries manufactured at the plant. Ford had to estimate what the cost of the raw materials of the batteries would be in order to make their cost savings projections. Let's just hope those all turn out to be in the ballpark as the price of commodities seem to fluctuate greatly.
Now let me wrap this piece up.
The Wrap-Up
With high risk comes high reward. Ford is definitely going all in on its EV aspirations, that is for sure. Even so, there are a plethora of pitfalls that await them.
In addition to the three major issues I have listed off above, there are many others. Competition and quality control issues round out my top five major downside risks for Ford. They are already having to make several recalls as it is. It only seems logical they may encounter more as they enter uncharted waters.
In regards to the competition, Ford seems to be attempting to fill the gaps that others have missed. I think it's a smart move for them to not try and compete with the Chinese, Tesla (TSLA), and other EV carmakers in the sedan (two row 5 seat) models. Yet, we will have to see if their strategy works and if the public takes to their Gen 2 models.
I still have faith in Ford. I believe the management team has done their homework. What's more, you get paid a nice 5% dividend while you wait. You can't beat that! Nevertheless, this does not take away from the monumental task they have ahead of them. Not to mention, the lofty goals they have set for themselves as well.
I am long Ford stock, yet the position only represents 2% of my portfolio. If anyone is contemplating starting a position in the company at this time, I would definitely layer in overtime to reduce risk. Those are my thoughts on the matter, I look forward to reading yours. What other risks do you see regarding Ford achieving its goals?
Department of Energy just completed my RFI on its $2B loan to Redwood. They disclosed nothing of substance and classified the other ~94 pages of the loan agreement.
'Car Wars' report: Next 4 years could be 'uncertain and volatile' for Detroit Three
The annual report says automotive product planners will be challenged by the electric vehicle transition, saying the situation is "wreaking havoc."
www.freep.com
It remains my opinion that at least one company in the auto industry is currently making a $10 billion mistake. Which one(s) remains the critical question. How do we know this will happen? Easy - there is so much distortion in the markets right now from government legislation, central banking actions, and ESG nonsense that it will drive poor decision making, and in this industry that's an incredibly expensive mistake.
You startin' to sound like the rest of us.
DOE is a master of "guilt by Omission"......
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Tesla on Autopilot crashes into stopped truck in Pennsylvania -police
A Tesla vehicle that was operating on its Autopilot software crashed into a stationary truck on a highway in Pennsylvania on Friday night, police said, adding to scrutiny of the automaker's driver assistance system.
www.reuters.com
Pretty obvious the "Number of units delivered" (and what models) has been left out. Why ?
In the US Stock Markets the most over used and misunderstood word has to be Expectations. If I took a bag full of "Expectations" to the grocery store, could I swap my bag for a bag of produce ?
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www.cnbc.com
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Tesla shares rise over 7% after delivery and production numbers beat expectations
Tesla shares rose over 7% in Monday morning trading, driven in part by stronger-than-expected second quarter deliveries and production numbers.
Remember when Tesla was down in the $100s and I was buying? Fun times. Sometimes expectations can pay at the register 
Remember when I was buying puts on Tesla in the $100s? Glad I still own my shares, lol.Remember when Tesla was down in the $100s and I was buying? Fun times. Sometimes expectations can pay at the register
When I was young and boastful, an old welder, nearing retirement left me with a pearl of wisdom.... "Son, You meet the same people on the way down that you met on the way up.Remember when Tesla was down in the $100s and I was buying? Fun times. Sometimes expectations can pay at the register
Since July 1, an additional yearly fee is now in effect on electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids in Montana. House Bill 60 established a fee of $130 for EVs under 6,000 pounds – the most common in the state so far – and $70 for hybrids of that size. Larger vehicles will have higher fees. The money will go toward highway and road maintenance, like the gas tax that drivers of combustion-engine vehicles pay.
New Montana laws take effect July 1
Every two years, after the Montana Legislature holds its session, many of the new laws they pass go into effect the following July 1 – and this year is no exception.
www.kpax.com
America needs trucks. Those big old, ugly, gas guzzling beast that contractors, rescue / recovery, ambulances, fire trucks, garbage trucks, food delivery trucks and a thousand other "needs" for a truck. Expecting Biden and the "Go Green Team" to outlaw trucks at any moment.... LOL
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DETROIT – Ford Motor’s second-quarter sales increased 9.9% from a year earlier, spurred by significant sales gains of its F-Series trucks.
The Detroit automaker Thursday reported sales of 531,662 vehicles from April through June, up from subdued results of 483,688 cars and trucks that were weighed down by supply chain problems in the year-ago period.
Sales of Ford’s F-Series trucks jumped 34% during the second quarter compared to the prior year, including sales of an all-electric version of the F-150 that more than doubled to 4,466 units sold.
Ford’s overall truck sales, a key driver of the company’s profits, were up 23% in the first half of the year from the same period in 2022. All-new Super Duty trucks and higher production of other models helped drive the gain, Ford said.
www.cnbc.com
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DETROIT – Ford Motor’s second-quarter sales increased 9.9% from a year earlier, spurred by significant sales gains of its F-Series trucks.
The Detroit automaker Thursday reported sales of 531,662 vehicles from April through June, up from subdued results of 483,688 cars and trucks that were weighed down by supply chain problems in the year-ago period.
Sales of Ford’s F-Series trucks jumped 34% during the second quarter compared to the prior year, including sales of an all-electric version of the F-150 that more than doubled to 4,466 units sold.
Ford’s overall truck sales, a key driver of the company’s profits, were up 23% in the first half of the year from the same period in 2022. All-new Super Duty trucks and higher production of other models helped drive the gain, Ford said.
Ford's U.S. sales jump 9.9% on big gains for its F-Series trucks
Ford's overall truck sales, a key driver of the company's profits, were up 23% in the first half of the year from the same period in 2022.
www.cnbc.com
On, or about January 8, 2021, TSLA share price was the same as it is today.
So was General Motor's and Ford's is slightly higher today.
What is so "captivating" about the automotive sector ?
Chances are, looking to the future, a 5 year chart into 2025 is going to look about the same.
Just dogs running in a pack. Any big changes is going to depend on competition in the car and truck sector. Not seeing any earth shaking changes there.
Smoke and mirrors.
So was General Motor's and Ford's is slightly higher today.
What is so "captivating" about the automotive sector ?
Chances are, looking to the future, a 5 year chart into 2025 is going to look about the same.
Just dogs running in a pack. Any big changes is going to depend on competition in the car and truck sector. Not seeing any earth shaking changes there.
Smoke and mirrors.
I am so close to buying a M3SR...
Norway's huge mineral discovery could power green tech for 100 years
The discovery of valuable ore in Scandinavia looks to relieve shortages of phosphorus for decades to come.
NEWS: Unsold electric cars are piling up on dealer lots - Axios The nationwide supply of EVs in stock has swelled nearly 350% this year, to more than 92,000 units. That's a 92-day supply, and 5.7x higher than Tesla's 16 day supply. "Other luxury models, like Audi's Q4 e-tron and Q8 e-tron have bloated inventories well above 100 days. All come with hefty price tags that make them ineligible for federal tax credits. Imported models like the Kia EV6, Hyundai Ioniq 5 and Nissan Ariya are also stacking up — likely because they're not eligible for tax credits either. Tesla's price-cutting strategy could be taking a toll, too: The once-hot Ford Mustang Mach-E now has a 117-day supply. Ford says that's the result of ramped-up production in anticipation of stronger third-quarter sales." https://axios.com/2023/07/10/uns
It is not just cars.
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In the United States alone, retailers are sitting on $740 billion in unsold goods. Clearing inventory and building more resilient and agile supply chains require action across five dimensions.
Thinking beyond markdowns to tackle retail’s inventory glut
Retailers in the US are sitting on $740 billion in unsold goods. Clearing inventory and building more resilient and agile supply chains requires action across five dimensions.
Looking at the list from a "regional" perspective is interesting.
www.cnbc.com
America's Top States for Business 2023: The full rankings
CNBC unveils its 16th annual America's Top States for Business ranking, scoring all 50 states on 86 measures of competitiveness across 10 broad categories.
And California is 25 out of 50 - sureLooking at the list from a "regional" perspective is interesting.
America's Top States for Business 2023: The full rankings
CNBC unveils its 16th annual America's Top States for Business ranking, scoring all 50 states on 86 measures of competitiveness across 10 broad categories.
One more company riding the wave of "Government Rules and Regulations".
Transportation companies will be passing the cost of replacing equipment along to the customers.
They "throw a bone" to the share holders.
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Shares of Paccar Inc. PCAR surged 1.7% into record territory in morning trading Tuesday, after the truck maker raised its quarterly dividend by 8%. The company said it will pay a quarterly dividend of 27 cents a share on Sept. 7 to shareholders of record on Aug. 17.
www.morningstar.com
Transportation companies will be passing the cost of replacing equipment along to the customers.
They "throw a bone" to the share holders.
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Shares of Paccar Inc. PCAR surged 1.7% into record territory in morning trading Tuesday, after the truck maker raised its quarterly dividend by 8%. The company said it will pay a quarterly dividend of 27 cents a share on Sept. 7 to shareholders of record on Aug. 17.
Paccar raises dividend, to boost yield above 1.2%
Financial term for today : rejiggering
They are polishing the mirrors and setting up a new smoke machine. More 'smoke and mirror's" from the market makers.
www.cnbc.com
They are polishing the mirrors and setting up a new smoke machine. More 'smoke and mirror's" from the market makers.
Nasdaq 100 index to undergo special rejiggering because a few tech stocks have gotten too big
The company said a special rebalance can be used to "address overconcentration in the index by redistributing the weights."
@Hobo Hilton does rejiggering have any resemblance to manipulating/changing the numbers to meet the desired narrative/outcome?
SMDH... about a lot of things these days.
SMDH... about a lot of things these days.
I'll just throw this out for a "thought". The members of the US Congress are a club of insiders. If you chased the rabbits on this move and could actualloy find out where their money, their families money and their cronies money is being clandestinely invested... You could connect the dots on this sort of manipulation.
I'm with you.
SMDH Meaning, Examples & More
Looking for the SMDH meaning? Here's a guide to help you understand the acronym, related terms, and much more!
www.bark.us
